I don't have anything insightful to add that hasn't already said, but, one of my favorite #analytical takes was that NH, a state where people attributed all of Trump's 2016 success to opioid epidemic and which he immediately disparaged as a 
drug infested den as soon as he got into office, was maybe going to swing towards him in a race where most of the fundamentals were running against him.
Even in that state, he got more total votes than last time.
Bernie Sanders might have depressed Democrat turnout or caused a lot of defections in 2016.
I also don't think "insulting" states has much of an impact. Trump said "how stupid are the people of Iowa?" but won it twice. Sinema called Arizona "the meth lab of democracy" and still won.
