TX-06: Dems in Disarray!

[Frenchrepublican]

Wow... people do realize that Trump was in the White House in 2017 and now he isn't but a Democrat is, right?

Do people realize that midterms aren't magical spells that brainwash people into voting one way. If you voted for Biden, nothing about the past few months would move you towards the GOP or make you less politically engaged.

Not sure you should bet on that, it has been a very consistent pattern  over the past few decades.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1374047108991451145?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

So it's completely possible that Democrats get locked out of the runoff.

With eleven democrats in the race that could be a real possibility, yeah.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1375087392776978440?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

While some people are really overreacting to these results I think that the liberals / the many pro dem pundits on Twitter who are totally downplaying them are wrong (and they are fooling themselves).

I mean, obviously no serious person should expect a 21 points to the right between the 2020 pres numbers and the next year congressional vote, sure, now once we have said that, if you look at the average of special elections held since January 20th you will see that democratic candidates are running 2 points behind Biden, not horrible but certainly not great either. (Keep in mind that Biden won GA/AZ/WI/PA by less than that - and in the case of NV he won it by a such margin).

Many red avatars on this forum expect next year to be some dem equivalent of the 2002 midterms and in order to back their point they argue that Biden is extremely popular, according to polls, and that two thirds of the electorate are supporting his policies.
If I'm not going to try predicting Biden approval by using special election results, the least we can say is that if the Biden+15 polls were accurate, special election results would be probably very different.

Also some people are arguing that next year midterms will be great for democrats because Trump voters are low turnout voters while Biden voters are all UMC liberals with college degrees who will turn in drove, this point is ridiculous, really ridiculous. Actually the truth is that both parties have some low propensity voters and some higher propensity voters, and there is no reason to expect that democrats will have a turnout advanatage next year, especially considering that Biden gets a higher strong disapproval rate than a strong approval rate.
And once again, if the special elections should not be overhyped, they are usually a good barometer of which party has the most engaged voters and at the moment it's clear that democrats don't have a enthusiasm gap, actually it is the GOP which has probably a slight advantage.