TX-06: Dems in Disarray!

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https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/1358803319540572161

Sad to hear.

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Maybe Wendy Davis should run.

Her old senate district overlaps with this congressional district.

Isn't TX-21 pretty much identical to TX-06 in terms of partisanship? She lost there and it wasn't even particularly close.

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We could very well have two instances of widow succession in the House, with Julie Letlow and Susan Wright taking their husband's seats. That would bring the number of currently serving widows in the House to three.

I am somewhat surprised the number is so low. The only one currently serving who assumed her husband's seat in a special is Doris Matsui, if memory serves correctly. Her election wasn't even that long ago!

Not Congress, but BettyLou DeCroce and Nancy Munoz hold their late husbands' old seats in the New Jersey State Assembly. Although it's slightly different because in New Jersey, replacements for vacant legislative seats are chosen by the county parties. Both of them were appointed when their husbands died, but have since won in their own right.

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Black south Dallas is spilling into Ellis

ellis county could be in the mid to high 50s% only for the gop within 20 years

Yeah, I didn't realize Ellis swung left that much. Republicans will still start out as favored in the special, but they could definitely lose this seat if they don't play their cards right.

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RIP Sery Kim's chances. Even in a Trump district, Young Kim's homophobia will just be too much to handle.

Also, is this where the meme originated?

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1326256346128379904

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So it's completely possible that Democrats get locked out of the runoff.

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“Big Dan” was a joke when he ran in Nevada and he’s even more of a joke in this race. If he makes the runoff, he’ll either get crushed by another Republican or throw the seat to a Democrat.

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Not sure how much newspaper endorsements matter, but the Dallas Morning News endorsed Republican Michael Wood: https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/we-recommend/2021/04/04/our-recommendation-for-us-house-district-6/

30-something Marine vet running as a Kinzinger-type.

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https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1386764881290989576

Trump endorses Susan Wright.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/kilometerbryman/status/1388646628756660225

Wright lost Tarrant in both 2018 and 2020, so Democrats losing it is a really bad sign for them.

Looks like a very good chance of an all-GOP runoff.

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Predictit odds indicating a dem lockout

That’s very very annoying because I really wanted to see how this district would trend

You can still see it based on the aggregate first round results.

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Imagine if TrendsAreUsuallyReal was still on here lol.

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Imagine if TrendsAreUsuallyReal was still on here lol.

His last post I think was Texas is going blue . I’d made a bet with him to that if Trump overperforms Cruz , he has to post that OSR was right and trends aren’t always real

He was so damn obnoxious about Texas going blue (at all levels).

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Ngl, I kind of assumed the suburbs would show a reversion after the Trump presidency. You saw it very slowly already in the GA runoffs before Trump was even out of office and now you see it even stronger post Trump entirely..

I've thought so too. Bad Orange Man^TM was a very powerful motivator, and now he's out of the White House and doesn't even have his Twitter account. As long as the GOP doesn't go around nominating QAnon loons, they should really improve.

It would really be something if Murphy loses Somerset and Pritzker loses DuPage.

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How did that anti-Trump Republican do?

Horrible.

He did better than Big Dan at least!

Anyway, I wonder how the results will affect redistricting in the DFW area.

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How did that anti-Trump Republican do?

Horrible.

He did better than Big Dan at least!

Anyway, I wonder how the results will affect redistricting in the DFW area.

Wright is from Arlington

I know. But I'm wondering if the TXGOP will be more confident about their prospects in this area without Trump in the White House.

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Is Sanchez done, or can she still squeak into the runoff?

It would require a minor miracle from the remaining vote in Tarrant.

Not really sure why the Dems ran several candidates capable of getting more than 5% here. Should have coalesced around one and forced others out/to states of non-campaigning. Then you can get someone to 30% and basically guarantee they advance.

Even if they had done that, I think they would have still lost the runoff by at least 10-15 points, based on the overall R vs D results.

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So what's the rating for a Wright vs. Ellzey runoff?

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Sanchez concedes, officially making the runoff R vs R:

https://twitter.com/thejanasanchez/status/1388871361892954120

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Also, this is the kind of thing I mean when I talk about my hatred of the media:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1388691471407144960

STOP. GIVING. UNSERIOUS. PEOPLE. UNDESERVED. COVERAGE. FOR F**KS SAKE.

That's how you get another Trump. That's how you get MTG in Congress.

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After today, the only question now is whether Democrats lose 20 or 50 seats.

They aren’t gonna lose 50 seats as they don’t have the amount of seats currently to lose that much

Dems could EASILY lose 50 seats.

Dropping below 170 seats would give Democrats their smallest House caucus since the 1920s and be 20 fewer seats than after the 2014 rout. That's a bold call, Cotton.  

Yup. As of now, I think the most likely scenario is the GOP netting 20-30 seats.

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I'm hoping the "Dems in Disarray" is sarcasm.  It was a bad night for Democrats and a good night for Republicans but lets be realistic on what it means to the bigger picture, not much. The district very likely gets more Republican in redistricting since the Republicans hold the trifecta in Texas so at best it would have been an 18 month rental but even if the DCCC jumped in and that would have been a longshot.

Mostly, but in this case, there's a kernel of truth to it.