TX-06: Dems in Disarray!

[Oryxslayer]

[Oryxslayer]

Fourth Serious Republican in. This is gonna be messy - especially since its initially a blanket primary.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1366372808452882433?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

So here's everyone who I might call 'serious:'

- Susan Wright (Rep), widow of Ron Wright, currently State Republican Executive Committee member, and beneficiary of mass legislative endorsements.

- Incumbent State Rep. Jake Ellzey (Rep), who previously ran against Wright in the 2018 primary and lost the runoff by 4.4%. He won both Ellis and Navarro counties during the runoff, but only 24.5K voters showed up. Currently represents State House seat #10, which covers all of Ellis and a bit of Henderson.

- Brian Harrison (Rep), former Department of Health and Human Services Chief of Staff in the Trump administration between 2019 and 2021.

- Sery Kim (Rep), Korean American and former assistant administrator for Trump's Small Business Administration.

- Jana Sanchez (Dem), former Journalist, DFW political organizer, and 2018 Democratic candidate for TX-06.

- Lydia Bean (Dem) former University teacher and 2020 candidate for Texas HD93 on the north side of Fort Worth.

- Shawn Lassiter (Dem), Fort Worth education nonprofit leader and previous candidate for the Fort Worth City Council.

The 'Non-Serious:'

- Dan Rodimer (Rep), WWE wrestler and carpetbagger from his previous race for NV-03 in 2020. Becomes serious with national backing.

- John Anthony Castro (Rep), previous 2020 primary challenger to Cornyn and local businessman with a plan to spend lots of personal money.

- Michael Wood (Rep), Marine Corps Veteran and anti-Trumpist.

- Jennifer Garcia Sharon (Rep) 2020 GOP Candidate for TX-35, Austin resident.

- Mike Egan (Rep) former Green Beret officer and local businessman.

- Michael Ballantine (Rep), Arlington lecturer and businessman.

- Monty Markland (Rep), writer and producer.

- Asa Palagi (Rep), pervious 2020 Independent anti-lockdown candidate for the Washington Governorship.

- Travis Rodermund (Rep), Arlington Police Officer.

- Tammy Allison (Dem), Grand Prairie attorney.

- Daryl J. Eddings Sr. (Dem), Businessman.

- Matt Hinterlong (Dem), Dallas developer.

- Patrick Moses (Dem), Mansfield pastor and former police officer.

- Manuel R. Salazar (Dem), Realter.
 
- Chris Suprun (Dem), Paramedic.

- Brian Stephenson (Dem), systems engineer.

- Phil Gray (Lib), Property manager and developer.

- Adrian Mizher (Ind), Banker.



Overall, there's too many candidates to avoid a runoff, and it seems balanced enough to deny the chance at a lockout.

[Oryxslayer]

Kim is having problems with anti-Chinese racism.

https://twitter.com/carolinefan/status/1378536546987601921?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

“How can I be a racist if I’m Korean”

This just sounds like an SNL line.

The actual Quote:

“I don’t want them here at all,” Kim said of potential Chinese immigrants. “They steal our intellectual property, they give us coronavirus, they don’t hold themselves accountable.”

“And quite frankly, I can say that because I’m Korean,” she added.

[Oryxslayer]

“How can I be a racist if I’m Korean”

This just sounds like an SNL line.

The actual Quote:

“I don’t want them here at all,” Kim said of potential Chinese immigrants. “They steal our intellectual property, they give us coronavirus, they don’t hold themselves accountable.”

“And quite frankly, I can say that because I’m Korean,” she added.

I was referring to the CPAC tweet that’s now gone, but it’s just as inane. It’s like saying “I hate the Germans and I can say that cause I’m polish”

It appears the TPUSA meme in question was a reaction to the quote above, not a self-post, which is why I removed it.

[Oryxslayer]

A young never-Trumper winning this special election would probably cause an even bigger beltway media pundit circus than a Democrat winning.

Except he's not. He's a Trump 2020 voter, and his message is "Trump had his time, he has only hurt us since November 3, its time to move on." He's also a rather lockstep conservative on the culture war issues, such as the border.

[Oryxslayer]

Sanchez leads the early vote in Tarrant with 16.3%, followed by Wright with 14.65%. Most notable result is probably Ellzey on 10% since he is going to do better in the southern 2 counties.

[Oryxslayer]

Right on cue, Ellzey takes the lead with the Ellis early vote. 30% of the vote from the part of the district in his HD. Currently Ellzey 15.6%, Wright 15.3%, Sanchez 14.3%.

[Oryxslayer]

What are the odds of a democratic lockout ?

Who know with this many candidates? The fact that the top 4 candidates won about 77% out of Ellis's 12K EV vs 50% of Tarrant's 31K does mask the current fracturing of results.

[Oryxslayer]

Higher propensity base is a myth!

It's over. November 8, 2022 is when America dies.

Isn't the dem base in this district Hispanic and AA voters? Those are low propensity voters.

Still a bad sign for Nov 2022, but I wouldn't get too concerned yet if I were dems

Oh yeah, Dems have a perpetual problem with off cycle elections in the SW...see the Texas senate 19 special election in 2018, all the HD specials the same year, and to a lesser extent CA-25. Having a coalition dependent on Hispanics is hard to maintain off-cycle. But I get the feeling people are overreacting as usual to early results, but in what way is presently up in the air.

[Oryxslayer]

How did that anti-Trump Republican do?

Horrible.

[Oryxslayer]

Without knowing anything about anything, I'd say Elizey winning the early vote in Tarrant makes him likely to win.

Yeah, his base is Ellis and to a less extent Navarro. He's the favorite right now.

[Oryxslayer]

Without knowing anything about anything, I'd say Elizey winning the early vote in Tarrant makes him likely to win.

Yeah, his base is Ellis and to a less extent Navarro. He's the favorite right now.

is ellzey more conservative than wright?

Both solid  conservatives - thats how they campaigned this runoff and ignored the Democrats in their public appeals. Ellzey just is a state house legislator from Ellis and Susan Wright (and her former husband) are active in Tarrant County and Arlington affairs.

[Oryxslayer]

Is it basically safe to view ellzey as the de-facto dem candidate here?

No, he’s still very much a Republican. But he did apparently court Dem voters so it’s fair to say that he’s the de facto “not insane person”…or at least enough of a grifter to forge a coalition with Democrats.

Without knowing anything about anything, I'd say Elizey winning the early vote in Tarrant makes him likely to win.

Yeah, his base is Ellis and to a less extent Navarro. He's the favorite right now.

is ellzey more conservative than wright?

Both strong solid conservatives - thats how they campaigned this runoff and ignored the Democrats in their public appeals. Ellzey just is a state house legislator from Ellis and Susan Wright (and her former husband) are active in Tarrant County and Arlington affairs.

If anything, Ellzey may be the more extreme of the two. For example, Wright was bankrolled in the final days by the Club for Growth, and Ellzey sought out conservative grassroots money from across the country. Ellzey's endorsed by Crenshaw. Ellzey just has done this before and has more campaign acumen.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1420246686404907019?s=20

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1420248006964678657?s=20

Good analysis. No clear geographic favoritism, instead if Ellzey had some Dem support it was margial - which still can matter in tight races. Instead, he likely just had more campaign experience and a legislative profile when the legislature was in the news.