TX-06: Dems in Disarray!

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/alweaver22/status/1366217063337975808?s=21

Trump is so weird in the fashion he rewards loyalty? Like one minor infraction and you're out but be loyal long enough and he'll endorse you over the dead congressman's widow? bizarre.

anyways, this seat is almost certain to be a good test of local politics versus Trump in the post presidency era since local politicos have all lined up behind Wright. Very good litmus.

Certainly going to add another woman to the GOP's historically female caucus though.

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/alweaver22/status/1366217063337975808?s=21

Trump is so weird in the fashion he rewards loyalty? Like one minor infraction and you're out but be loyal long enough and he'll endorse you over the dead congressman's widow? bizarre.

anyways, this seat is almost certain to be a good test of local politics versus Trump in the post presidency era since local politicos have all lined up behind Wright. Very good litmus.

Certainly going to add another woman to the GOP's historically female caucus though.

That's still in question.

Not really. Seems almost certain that the GOP choices will be Wright and Pierson. Can't imagine anyone else putting up much of a fight given the resources these two will have.

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/alweaver22/status/1366217063337975808?s=21

Trump is so weird in the fashion he rewards loyalty? Like one minor infraction and you're out but be loyal long enough and he'll endorse you over the dead congressman's widow? bizarre.

anyways, this seat is almost certain to be a good test of local politics versus Trump in the post presidency era since local politicos have all lined up behind Wright. Very good litmus.

Certainly going to add another woman to the GOP's historically female caucus though.

That's still in question.

Not really. Seems almost certain that the GOP choices will be Wright and Pierson. Can't imagine anyone else putting up much of a fight given the resources these two will have.

It's not a safe-r seat, dems might win it.

its a likely R seat.

[Young Conservative]

% with Bachelor's or higher:

TX-2: 38%
TX-3: 51%
TX-7: 44%
TX-10: 35%
TX-21: 43%
TX-22: 39%
TX-24: 43%
TX-25: 35%
TX-32: 40%

TX-6: 27%

Others:
GA-6: 56%
GA-7: 38%
MI-8: 37%
MI-11: 44%
PA-17: 41%
CA-45: 50%
NJ-7: 48%
NJ-11: 50%

GOP flips in 2020 after Dem 2018:
CA-39: 39%
CA-48: 42%

This district's Democratic trend is mainly because of changing demographics, not Rs switching sides like the more educated suburbs. Lower propensity voters in these places tend to be Dems, hurting the party in off year elections. CA-25 is a perfect example, 26% with college degree or higher and Dems completely struggled in the special election (lost by 10) but Biden still won by 10 in the fall. Of course Smith was an awful candidate and Dems couldn't win the House seat but it was a coin flip.

My point isn't that Dems will win or lose the House, it's that districts like TX-6 are not as good for them in non-presidential years. For the GOP, I would throw out PA-8 as a good example that is probably better for them in presidential than a midterm. TX-6 is is SIGNIFICANTLY less educated than districts the Dems have recently gained. Just because it is suburban and Sun-Belt doesn't mean it is the same.

some other data about this district;

1. 34.5% of whites in the district have a ba or higher (ranking 212th out of all CD's, slightly below national %)
2. average white income is $80,090, ranking 126th in the nation.
3. Tarrant county's blue suburbs and white precincts also showed far more republican votes in this low turnout special

While doomsday is silly, this is not a good result for democrats, no matter how you try to spin it. this is a district where they should do well, even with a fragile turnout coalition.