TX-06: Dems in Disarray!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nothing of value

[Tender Branson]

Not much.

Maybe Dems could do worse than usually because of a decline in turnout in urban areas, while the continued urban-rural trend to more polarisation helps the Rs more.

Dems could lose seats or don’t win additional Senate races, even though Biden is somewhat popular next year.

[NewYorkExpress]

We already knew 2022 would be an R wave from the moment Biden was elected, so this gives us no new information.

[Agafin]

With 100% in Ellzey leads Sanchez by 354 votes for the second slot. Wright called as the winner of the first slot, no call for the second slot.

District-wide partisan total: Republicans 62.1, Democrats 37.1, ind (Mizher) 0.4, Libertarian 0.3

There are reasons to take this number with a grain of salt -- the local majority party always over-performs open jungle primaries, Democrats are notoriously sh**t at Texas special elections, the Republican candidates put in way more effort here, incumbents usually get a sympathy boost in a special election caused by a death, turnout was low -- but even considering all that, R+25 in a Trump+3 seat is way better for the GOP than any polling here or anywhere else suggested, and for them to out-perform Romney in this left-trending seat is astounding. (This was Romney '12 58-41, Trump '16 54-42, Trump '20 51-48. Abbott '18 56-42, Abbott '14 58-40...). Balls-to-the-wall performance.

EDIT: The "Obama Second Term, Second Time" vibes are really strong with this outcome.

Yeah this is crazy, 2022 definitely seems like it's the republicans' to lose now.

[Agafin]

I've just read in the main thread that the R/D overall party vote was 62/37 while Wright (R) won it by just 9 points (53/44) in 2020. This is like reverse GA-06 where the R candidate won by just 4 points (52/48) in 2017 in a district that had gone 62/38 to the incumbent just a few months earlier. While there's always many ways to explain such a movement, it definitely seems like a very bad omen for the democratic party's chances in 2022. This is even worse for the dems because this district is supposed to be trending their way (while GA-06 was already moving away from the GOP even prior to that result).

[Pericles]

One special election doesn't mean much but if there's a pattern then that is meaningful. If there is a clear, consistent pattern of rightward swings, the Democratic majority is likely even more doomed than ig already is. We just need to wait and see.

[VAR]

Not much, really. Turnout was incredibly low, even by Texas standards. For comparison's sake, despite getting the same % as Karen Handel, Susan Wright received less than half of the votes Handel received in the first round (!!).

I don't think such a low-turnout election can provide us with useful datapoints.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

?

It tells us that you still haven’t kept your promise to leave Atlas for a year if Osoff and Warnock won.

[Skill and Chance]

On the one hand, Texas special elections have always been very R-skewed (losing a Dem-held state senate seat in 2018 for example), and national Democrats made basically zero effort here.  On the other hand, this was in aggregate the best R performance ever in this district.  That could be important.  This district has been something of a disappointment for Democrats vs. the North Dallas suburban seats.  I believe even O'Rourke lost it? 
   

[Skill and Chance]

How did that anti-Trump Republican do?

Horrible.

He did better than Big Dan at least!

Anyway, I wonder how the results will affect redistricting in the DFW area.

Well, Wright is I believe from the inner suburbs and Ellzey is from an outer rural county, so it depends heavily on who wins.  Given the closeness in 2020, the legislature probably wants to pull it further out of DFW, which would be easier if Ellzey wins the runoff.

 

[Brittain33]

?

That if Dems don't contest the elections and don't have a party presence or bench in districts, they'll do worse than they would in a normal general or mid-term.

Also, 2022 is unlikely to be a 2018 environment for Dems.

[Brittain33]

I've just read in the main thread that the R/D overall party vote was 62/37 while Wright (R) won it by just 9 points (53/44) in 2020. This is like reverse GA-06 where the R candidate won by just 4 points (52/48) in 2017 in a district that had gone 62/38 to the incumbent just a few months earlier. While there's always many ways to explain such a movement, it definitely seems like a very bad omen for the democratic party's chances in 2022. This is even worse for the dems because this district is supposed to be trending their way (while GA-06 was already moving away from the GOP even prior to that result).

The difference is that the GA-6 special had enormous turnout from both parties who nationalized it while this was a low-turnout, multi-candidate special where the front-runner won with 15,000 votes.

Total votes cast:
GA-6, 2017 first round: 192,569
TX-6: 78,374 (NYT)

[Brittain33]

?

It tells us that you still haven’t kept your promise to leave Atlas for a year if Osoff and Warnock won.

We're going to have an enormous WELCOME BACK WOODBURY! thread and celebration in January 2022, aren't we?

[Roll Roons]

Sanchez concedes, officially making the runoff R vs R:

https://twitter.com/thejanasanchez/status/1388871361892954120

[compucomp]

With 100% in Ellzey leads Sanchez by 354 votes for the second slot. Wright called as the winner of the first slot, no call for the second slot.

District-wide partisan total: Republicans 62.1, Democrats 37.1, ind (Mizher) 0.4, Libertarian 0.3

There are reasons to take this number with a grain of salt -- the local majority party always over-performs open jungle primaries, Democrats are notoriously sh**t at Texas special elections, the Republican candidates put in way more effort here, incumbents usually get a sympathy boost in a special election caused by a death, turnout was low -- but even considering all that, R+25 in a Trump+3 seat is way better for the GOP than any polling here or anywhere else suggested, and for them to out-perform Romney in this left-trending seat is astounding. (This was Romney '12 58-41, Trump '16 54-42, Trump '20 51-48. Abbott '18 56-42, Abbott '14 58-40...). Balls-to-the-wall performance.

EDIT: The "Obama Second Term, Second Time" vibes are really strong with this outcome.

If we wanted to draw hot-take conclusions from this low turnout election, it would be that Trump really is out of sight and the Twitter ban worked, and that the suburban upper middle class that flipped to Biden might support a Third Way Democrat but not an old-school tax-and-spend liberal, which is what Biden is becoming. They still hate it when the government takes money out of their pockets to give to poor people, and now they don't have the orange boogeyman to oppose anymore. If Biden continues like this he better hope that he will gain support among the working class (of all races) to offset this or else another 2010 is coming.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1388893015012433920?s=19

[Devils30]

% with Bachelor's or higher:

TX-2: 38%
TX-3: 51%
TX-7: 44%
TX-10: 35%
TX-21: 43%
TX-22: 39%
TX-24: 43%
TX-25: 35%
TX-32: 40%

TX-6: 27%

Others:
GA-6: 56%
GA-7: 38%
MI-8: 37%
MI-11: 44%
PA-17: 41%
CA-45: 50%
NJ-7: 48%
NJ-11: 50%

GOP flips in 2020 after Dem 2018:
CA-39: 39%
CA-48: 42%

This district's Democratic trend is mainly because of changing demographics, not Rs switching sides like the more educated suburbs. Lower propensity voters in these places tend to be Dems, hurting the party in off year elections. CA-25 is a perfect example, 26% with college degree or higher and Dems completely struggled in the special election (lost by 10) but Biden still won by 10 in the fall. Of course Smith was an awful candidate and Dems couldn't win the House seat but it was a coin flip.

My point isn't that Dems will win or lose the House, it's that districts like TX-6 are not as good for them in non-presidential years. For the GOP, I would throw out PA-8 as a good example that is probably better for them in presidential than a midterm. TX-6 is is SIGNIFICANTLY less educated than districts the Dems have recently gained. Just because it is suburban and Sun-Belt doesn't mean it is the same.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are still in the middle of a Pandemic and by next yr we should be in full recovery mode, but are gonna win our base states of Cali, NJ and VA in a special Election

It remains to be seen if we can make a wave of  it in 500 days

Generic ballot 47:42 D and Prez party is supposed to lose seats

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Has Madison Cawthorn endorsed yet? Will he be barnstorming/barnwheeling the district?

How about Dan Crenshaw, Ron DeSantis, and AOC? Who have they endorsed?

[Young Conservative]

% with Bachelor's or higher:

TX-2: 38%
TX-3: 51%
TX-7: 44%
TX-10: 35%
TX-21: 43%
TX-22: 39%
TX-24: 43%
TX-25: 35%
TX-32: 40%

TX-6: 27%

Others:
GA-6: 56%
GA-7: 38%
MI-8: 37%
MI-11: 44%
PA-17: 41%
CA-45: 50%
NJ-7: 48%
NJ-11: 50%

GOP flips in 2020 after Dem 2018:
CA-39: 39%
CA-48: 42%

This district's Democratic trend is mainly because of changing demographics, not Rs switching sides like the more educated suburbs. Lower propensity voters in these places tend to be Dems, hurting the party in off year elections. CA-25 is a perfect example, 26% with college degree or higher and Dems completely struggled in the special election (lost by 10) but Biden still won by 10 in the fall. Of course Smith was an awful candidate and Dems couldn't win the House seat but it was a coin flip.

My point isn't that Dems will win or lose the House, it's that districts like TX-6 are not as good for them in non-presidential years. For the GOP, I would throw out PA-8 as a good example that is probably better for them in presidential than a midterm. TX-6 is is SIGNIFICANTLY less educated than districts the Dems have recently gained. Just because it is suburban and Sun-Belt doesn't mean it is the same.

some other data about this district;

1. 34.5% of whites in the district have a ba or higher (ranking 212th out of all CD's, slightly below national %)
2. average white income is $80,090, ranking 126th in the nation.
3. Tarrant county's blue suburbs and white precincts also showed far more republican votes in this low turnout special

While doomsday is silly, this is not a good result for democrats, no matter how you try to spin it. this is a district where they should do well, even with a fragile turnout coalition.

[GALeftist]

Personally, I think the "Democrats just lost the House" takes are just as silly as the "Democrats have nothing to worry about" takes. Democrats were substantial underdogs in the House before this election and they're substantial underdogs now. This should be a wake-up call to Democrats that they need to be preparing yesterday, but it's not the end of the world, either.

[OSR stands with Israel]

After today, the only question now is whether Democrats lose 20 or 50 seats.

They aren’t gonna lose 50 seats as they don’t have the amount of seats currently to lose that much

[Devils30]

My point is elections like VA and down the ballot there in less blue but still Biden won state leg. districts might tell us a lot more about 2022.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Congratulations Speaker Kevin McCarthy

[brucejoel99]

?

Respond to the people you've been ignoring on your AMA, then leave the forum for a year.