TX-06: Dems in Disarray!

[GALeftist]

Far more likely to flip than Haaland's seat, but still quite unlikely.

[It’s so Joever]

The unfortunate list of members of Congress who have died in office grows yet longer. And it appears that he may be the first member to have died from coronavirus, which underscores again how serious the pandemic has become. Rep.-elect Luke Letlow, of course, died from it at the end of December, the first Representative-Elect to die in almost 40 years.

Yet pelosi had to feed her ego by bring COVID positive meme bees on the floor to ensure she hits 218

Are you deranged or just ignorant?

[Progressive Pessimist]

That's a real shame. I'm sorry to hear that. Will the other House Republican ignoramuses who probably got him infected finally learn a lesson now,perhaps?...Yeah, probably not.

As for the special election, I'm not getting my hopes up, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrat keeps the election close in the end.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s been a well-established pattern by now that turnout patterns in special elections are far from reliable predictors of (regular) general election turnout among Republicans. Cue the predictable 'Republicans in disarray' articles when the Democrat (unsurprisingly) comes very close to winning this race or narrowly pulls off an 'upset.' Best for the GOP to lower expectations here, not that they will do it.

One could also add that Republicans fared very poorly in special elections throughout 2009 and that their losing streak that year set off alarm bells in GOP headquarters.

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

LOL at people saying this is a Lean R or possible pick-up for dems, zero chance.

R+8 in 2018 and R+9 in 2020, the narrative it was 51-48 for Trump doesn't mean anything, there was too much ticket-splitting in Texas.

Safe R, but I hope Dems spend burn some money!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Very sad news, my condolences to his friends and family. Anyways, I actually live in this district and I have a feeling the special election shouldn't be overly competitive even though the district is trending D. I don't think enough D's will turnout to flip the district imo.

First post btw! 

Welcome to the forum!

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

LOL at people saying this is a Lean R or possible pick-up for dems, zero chance.

R+8 in 2018 and R+9 in 2020, the narrative it was 51-48 for Trump doesn't mean anything, there was too much ticket-splitting in Texas.

Safe R, but I hope Dems spend burn some money!

lol, ask congresswoman Karen Handel about how little the presidential vote share matters in rapidly trending seats like this. I remembered how much republican gloated about the money democrats blew in the Georgia 6th special election, Ossoff is now the states senator while Karen Handel has deleted her social media and disappeared from public life.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

LOL at people saying this is a Lean R or possible pick-up for dems, zero chance.

R+8 in 2018 and R+9 in 2020, the narrative it was 51-48 for Trump doesn't mean anything, there was too much ticket-splitting in Texas.

Safe R, but I hope Dems spend burn some money!

lol, ask congresswoman Karen Handel about how these kinds of trending seats go.

Karen Handel's defeat in 2018 and wide defeat in 2020 reminds me of Bob Dornan's narrow loss in 1996 and blowout defeat in 1998.

[Nyvin]

LOL at people saying this is a Lean R or possible pick-up for dems, zero chance.

R+8 in 2018 and R+9 in 2020, the narrative it was 51-48 for Trump doesn't mean anything, there was too much ticket-splitting in Texas.

Safe R, but I hope Dems spend burn some money!

GA-6 was R+23 in 2016.

[VAR]

Wow... people do realize that Trump was in the White House in 2017 and now he isn't but a Democrat is, right?

[Brittain33]

LOL at people saying this is a Lean R or possible pick-up for dems, zero chance.

R+8 in 2018 and R+9 in 2020, the narrative it was 51-48 for Trump doesn't mean anything, there was too much ticket-splitting in Texas.

Safe R, but I hope Dems spend burn some money!

GA-6 was R+23 in 2016.

Is that an apples to apples comparison with the 2018 and 2020 numbers for GA-6, though? 2018 and 2020 were good D years in Texas, 2018 more than 2020.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Wow... people do realize that Trump was in the White House in 2017 and now he isn't but a Democrat is, right?

Do people realize that midterms aren't magical spells that brainwash people into voting one way. If you voted for Biden, nothing about the past few months would move you towards the GOP or make you less politically engaged.

[Nyvin]

LOL at people saying this is a Lean R or possible pick-up for dems, zero chance.

R+8 in 2018 and R+9 in 2020, the narrative it was 51-48 for Trump doesn't mean anything, there was too much ticket-splitting in Texas.

Safe R, but I hope Dems spend burn some money!

GA-6 was R+23 in 2016.

Is that an apples to apples comparison with the 2018 and 2020 numbers for GA-6, though? 2018 and 2020 were good D years in Texas, 2018 more than 2020.

Probably not, but only because the seat will be redrawn before the next general election.   Otherwise it's pretty spot on,  districts like this can slip away from a party a lot quicker then people realize.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Wow... people do realize that Trump was in the White House in 2017 and now he isn't but a Democrat is, right?

Do people realize that midterms aren't magical spells that brainwash people into voting one way. If you voted for Biden, nothing about the past few months would move you towards the GOP or make you less politically engaged.

But they are for a significant (albeit shrinking) proportion of largely disengaged voters who have short-term political memories and blame the party in the White House for contemporary problems. These voters are likely to party switch in midterms or only turn up when the party they're less inclined towards is in power.

 

[Vladimir Leninov]

Very sad news, my condolences to his friends and family. Anyways, I actually live in this district and I have a feeling the special election shouldn't be overly competitive even though the district is trending D. I don't think enough D's will turnout to flip the district imo.

First post btw! 

Yeah, this, Trump only won it by 3 and change, but Wright himself won the district by a substantially larger ammt

Hopefully you make the elex cutofff Waves

[Flyersfan232]

what is jeff williams doing these days?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

RIP, & condolences.

Now that that's out of the way and while his body is still cold, the only thing that matters is when the special election is, how likely this seat will flip and who runs to replace him.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

LOL at people saying this is a Lean R or possible pick-up for dems, zero chance.

R+8 in 2018 and R+9 in 2020, the narrative it was 51-48 for Trump doesn't mean anything, there was too much ticket-splitting in Texas.

Safe R, but I hope Dems spend burn some money!

GA-6 was R+23 in 2016.

Is that an apples to apples comparison with the 2018 and 2020 numbers for GA-6, though? 2018 and 2020 were good D years in Texas, 2018 more than 2020.

TX-06 is not a GA-06 analogue because it has two blood red counties added along. GA-11 is more comparable.
(fyi, GA-06 voted for Biden by 11 while GA-11 voted Trump by 15. Neither really reflect TX-06 very well, but at least GA-11 has two exurban counties attached, just like TX-06. If anything, TX-24 is almost the GA-06 to TX-06's GA-11, if we were to anologize about districts in each given metro)

[MargieCat]

Maybe Wendy Davis should run.

Her old senate district overlaps with this congressional district.

[Roll Roons]

Maybe Wendy Davis should run.

Her old senate district overlaps with this congressional district.

Isn't TX-21 pretty much identical to TX-06 in terms of partisanship? She lost there and it wasn't even particularly close.

[MargieCat]

TX-21 was also Trump+3.

She lost to Roy by 6.7.

She could have narrowly won in the right environment. But not with Trump on the ballot.

And strange things can happen in special elections.

[Flyersfan232]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1359713815848386563/photo/1
Susan is ron's wife

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1361665091750494209?s=20

[LtNOWIS]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1363684634374983683

[Stuart98]

Likely R. Turnout patterns are going to be really interesting, but the sympathy vote is probably going to be huge and it would take hugely disproportionate D turnout to overcome that.