TX-06: Dems in Disarray!

[Benjamin Frank]

Update:

Wright 16.2%
Ellzey 14.7%
Sanchez 14.1%
Harrison 11.8%
Lassiter 9.1%

This was a new dump from Tarrant.

Susan Wright
Republican
8,257 16.2%
Jake Ellzey
Republican
7,487 14.7
Jana Lynne Sanchez
Democrat
7,200 14.1
Brian Harrison
Republican
6,007 11.8
Total reported
50,923

Also ran race
Michael Wood
Republican
1,549   3.0

Dan Rodimer
Republican
1,311   2.6

[VAR]

Tarrant is like 94% in, and Wright and Ellzey are still ahead. We should get a race call soon.

[Matty]

Tarrant is basically all in

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Legit question, how will ED vote come out? How do we not know it will just be relatively even between Rs and Ds?

People are assuming that the trends from the Nov. 2020 election are holding to this special, which I find a bit hard to swallow. Especially with the hubbub about voter ID for absentee/early ballots.

Texas Dems in general still have substantial problems in lower-turnout elections. It seems that in Texas, the higher the turnout the better for Ds - with the notable exception of the RGV.
The fact Ds are seemingly headed for a lockout is testament to that.

[Horus]

Some of you really need to calm down. This is a special election a year and a half away from midterms. We don't even know what the maps are gonna look like or what the electoral landscape will be. If specials meant anything, and they mean very little, Karen Handel's win would've led to the GOP holding the house in 2018 and a second Trump term.

[Wormless Gourd]

Another update from Tarrant now has the district at;
Wright - 16.7%
Ellzey - 15.1%
Sanchez - 14%
I'm leaning on an RvR runoff now

[OSR stands with Israel]

Congressional special elections have never been good indicators of midterm elections. If they meant anything at all Democrats would not have regained the House in 2018. There is no point dooming over this result.

Huh what , democrats did better in the special elections in 2017 and 2018 than they did in the midterms

[Wormless Gourd]

Update again:
Wright now at 17.16%
Ellzey 15.16%
Sanchez 13.83%
Wright is 0.67% behind Sanchez in Tarrant bcs of election day votes being tallied

[OSR stands with Israel]

Some of you really need to calm down. This is a special election a year and a half away from midterms. We don't even know what the maps are gonna look like or what the electoral landscape will be. If specials meant anything, and they mean very little, Karen Handel's win would've led to the GOP holding the house in 2018 and a second Trump term.

Even if Karen Handel was re-elected, I very much doubt the gop keeps the house in 2018

[Devils30]

Is it just me or does it seem like an absurdly low turnout on both sides? 55-60K total for both parties in a district that had around 330K last November. It was treated like a primary by the Dems where their candidate was thought to be a lock.

[DINGO Joe]

Is it just me or does it seem like an absurdly low turnout on both sides? 55-60K total for both parties in a district that had around 330K last November. It was treated like a primary by the Dems where their candidate was thought to be a lock.

I guess a comparison could be made with LA-02 which is a minority district that had around 90,000 votes a week back.

[Pink Panther]

Things don't look too hot for the Dems at the moment.

[Vosem]

Is it just me or does it seem like an absurdly low turnout on both sides? 55-60K total for both parties in a district that had around 330K last November. It was treated like a primary by the Dems where their candidate was thought to be a lock.

I guess a comparison could be made with LA-02 which is a minority district that had around 90,000 votes a week back.

It's even more pathetic than it looks, since this is in the rapidly growing DFW area while New Orleans is...not rapidly growing. Turnout is awful here.

Might be a sign that turnout will be awful in the midterm, of course. The media is covering this administration very similarly to the second Obama term; one of the possible outcomes is definitely a new 2014.

[Devils30]

Is it just me or does it seem like an absurdly low turnout on both sides? 55-60K total for both parties in a district that had around 330K last November. It was treated like a primary by the Dems where their candidate was thought to be a lock.

I guess a comparison could be made with LA-02 which is a minority district that had around 90,000 votes a week back.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/virginia-voters-choosing-successors-to-former-delegates-in-special-election/2021/01/05/e604a864-4ee0-11eb-bda4-615aaefd0555_story.html

This special state legislative election happened the same day as the GA runoffs, low profile contests are just different. Dems in 2022 need to make every election high profile, TX-6 is a good lesson for not giving any effort.

[Wormless Gourd]

For anyone curious, Wright's lead over Ellzey is strongest among election day voters(nearly 3:1), then early(1.5:1) and finally absentee-mail(essentially a tie, Wright leads by 30 votes).
Late Trump endorsement without a doubt did Wright some favors.

[2016]

Some of you really need to calm down. This is a special election a year and a half away from midterms. We don't even know what the maps are gonna look like or what the electoral landscape will be. If specials meant anything, and they mean very little, Karen Handel's win would've led to the GOP holding the house in 2018 and a second Trump term.

Look, all the gigantic Turnout 2018 for Democrats was because of one person: DONALD TRUMP. He is not on the Ballot in 2022. Republicans are going to win back some of the white suburban voters in 2022, particularly women who fled Trump in 2018 & 2020.

[Devils30]

Some of you really need to calm down. This is a special election a year and a half away from midterms. We don't even know what the maps are gonna look like or what the electoral landscape will be. If specials meant anything, and they mean very little, Karen Handel's win would've led to the GOP holding the house in 2018 and a second Trump term.

Look, all the gigantic Turnout 2018 for Democrats was because of one person: DONALD TRUMP. He is not on the Ballot in 2022. Republicans are going to win back some of the white suburban voters in 2022, particularly women who fled Trump in 2018 & 2020.

Biden's approval is still 53%, Trump will also campaign for some of these swing state candidates and say plenty of stupid things.

[EastwoodS]

Ngl, I kind of assumed the suburbs would show a reversion after the Trump presidency. You saw it very slowly already in the GA runoffs before Trump was even out of office and now you see it even stronger post Trump entirely..

[Devils30]

Ngl, I kind of assumed the suburbs would show a reversion after the Trump presidency. You saw it very slowly already in the GA runoffs before Trump was even out of office and now you see it even stronger post Trump entirely..

But will the Dems get some reversion in rural MI, WI, PA without Trump? Definitely worth watching as well.

[Roll Roons]

Ngl, I kind of assumed the suburbs would show a reversion after the Trump presidency. You saw it very slowly already in the GA runoffs before Trump was even out of office and now you see it even stronger post Trump entirely..

I've thought so too. Bad Orange Man^TM was a very powerful motivator, and now he's out of the White House and doesn't even have his Twitter account. As long as the GOP doesn't go around nominating QAnon loons, they should really improve.

It would really be something if Murphy loses Somerset and Pritzker loses DuPage.

[EastwoodS]

Ngl, I kind of assumed the suburbs would show a reversion after the Trump presidency. You saw it very slowly already in the GA runoffs before Trump was even out of office and now you see it even stronger post Trump entirely..

But will the Dems get some reversion in rural MI, WI, PA without Trump? Definitely worth watching as well.

Probably yah. You saw rural reversion in GA too

[Mr. Smith]

Congressional special elections have never been good indicators of midterm elections. If they meant anything at all Democrats would not have regained the House in 2018. There is no point dooming over this result.

Au contraire, those were excellent results and turnout all-around in comparison. Montana was NOT a single digiter until Quist, same with Estes district in Kansas, to say nothing of GA-06's evolution after the initial hurdle.

This tells us where the base energy is and how uphill 2022 will now be.

[Devils30]

It will be interesting to see the VA Governor margin and the House of Delegates there. Higher profile and easier to make comparisons to midterms.

[Continential]

NYT calls a spot in the runoff for Susan Wright.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Is Sanchez done, or can she still squeak into the runoff?