Hot take: 2022 will have turnout comparable or higher than 2018

[ProgressiveModerate]

Reasons:

1. 2018

The 2018 midterms had record turnout for a midterm, with both sides, especially Democrats, having a strong showing in terms of raw votes. I personally know a few people who didn't vote in midterms before 2018 but have said they are more committed to voting in midterm elections in the future. I just have a hard time seeing enough people who were politically engaged enough to show up in 2018 not show up in 2022 to go back to 2014 level turnout.

2. Trump will (probably) still be an issue

On the Republican side, you have a lot of voters who are determined to get him back in power any way they can; he's likely to be active on the campaign trail too and could help motivate the base. We saw in 2018 that Republicans had a strong showing turnout-wise (Democrats just did better), and I think a large part of that was Trump keeping his "cult" of otherwise disengaged voters engaged.

Democrats on the other hand may be able to carry over a bit of anti-Trump energy because of fear he could come back.

3. Extreme partisanship

This one is pretty self-explanatory. Trump Republicans generally absolutely hate the Biden administration and want to do whatever it takes to weaken it. Democrats for the most part really do not want Trump Republicans in power.

4. Democrats have fear too

In the 2010 and 2014 elections; notorious for being low-turnout red waves, there wasn't really much fear on the Democrats side. Most of the main things in the media as to why Democrats should vote felt inconsequential, far away, and purely political to the average voter. While Democrats did not want the GOP in power, there really wasn't a fear of them regaining power other than amongst extreme partisans and political insiders who were already likely to show up.

Right now however, Democrats seem to have been to keep up energy around issues of voting rights. When you make people actually worried their fundamental right to vote could be in jeopardy, you create political energy that reaches even people who otherwise may not vote in midterms a reason to show up. This could boost Dem turnout in states like GA and TX especially which have been in the media a lot recently

There may also be a whole media cycle on redistricting which could create more fear

Also, as I said earlier, Trump fear may still be there a bit




Ultimately, I'm not sure which side, if either will benefit from this high turnout. But especially in midterms, who shows up and who doesn't plays a significant role in the election outcome.

Love to hear your thoughts on what you think turnout will be like in 2022.

[SnowLabrador]

I wouldn't be surprised.

[TML]

Regarding the voting rights issue: we actually saw this play out in North Dakota in 2018, where a story about stricter voter ID requirements negatively affecting people living on the state’s Indian Reservations was highlighted in the media and prompted increased voter registration/turnout efforts in those areas. The result was that although the Democratic senatorial candidate lost ground in most of the state compared to her previous election, some of the places where she actually gained ground were the two counties dominated by Indian Reservations.

[CookieDamage]

I dont think we'll see 2014 level poor turnout for a while

[GlobeSoc]

I think turnout will be stagnant from 2018, but we might be in a long term trend of increasing turnout

[coloradocowboi]

I dont think we'll see 2014 level poor turnout for a while

Just this week Morning Consult released a poll saying that Democrats are wearing out and the GOP is getting more motivated.

If Biden can't get something substantive (i.e. not the bipartisan infrastructure bill) passed, then we might have a chance, but if he doesn't I think that we are looking more at a 2014 level of turnout than 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably higher we have better candidates than Rs do, we always had better candidates in 2014 with Michelle  Nunn, 2016 Feingold, 202o Steve Bullock, 2022 with Tim Ryan

Bullock should of won

[ProgressiveModerate]

I dont think we'll see 2014 level poor turnout for a while

Just this week Morning Consult released a poll saying that Democrats are wearing out and the GOP is getting more motivated.

If Biden can't get something substantive (i.e. not the bipartisan infrastructure bill) passed, then we might have a chance, but if he doesn't I think that we are looking more at a 2014 level of turnout than 2018.

While I agree to some degree, a red wave and low turnout aren’t mutually exclusive. We could see a situation where Republicans  are the ones with a significant turnout advantage though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The low bar is a Neutral Environment, with D's replicate an 304 map, the Generic ballot is tied 42/42 R H and a 52/48 Senate the high bar is a 55/45 S and a blue wave H, we only know that right now it's a blue wave but D's really need 53 Senate seats along with a DH, due to fact Tester, Manchin and Sinema Dr I t want to end Filibuster, but Rs are blocking VR reform, we can all vote, but in the red wall states is it Voter Suppression

The Election is next yr and Covid and the Economy is gonna better better next yr not this ye

Watch out for split voting Ryan and Renacci in OH, Yee and Kelly in. aZ and Rubio and Crist in FL and GA Warnock and Kemp just like AZ and OH split in 2018 with Brown, DeWine, Sinema and Ducey and NC split with Cooper and Tillis 2020

I am not saying it will happen it could happen with DC and PR Statehood

Ras Smith is an Afro American Gov candidate and Fink is just as gorgeous and like Gretchen Whitmer https://www.yahoo.com/news/democrat-abby-finkenauer-running-u-132223016.html

[Vosem]

Possible, but in 2017-18 special elections had consistently high turnout, while turnout in special elections has been consistently dropping ever since the Georgia specials in January. I really don't think 2022 is going to have exceptionally high turnout.

[hurricanehink]

Let’s not forget the 47% of GOP voters who are anti-vax, and who might not be around by the midterms. I hate to be morbid, but Covid is still definitely a factor.

[Orser67]

A reasonable theory, but I tend to disagree; I think we're in for at least a temporary reversion to mean in 2022 after the high turnout of the Trump years. The other big factor for me is that I think Biden, at least so far, has provoked relatively low levels of Republican outrage, so I think there's a real chance that Republicans may not have the levels of heightened turnout that the out-party has generally had in recent mid-terms.

Of course, there's still a long time until 2022, and legislation, Supreme Court cases, and various controversies could stoke turnout on both sides. I also agree with point 3, inasmuch as I think extreme partisanship will prevent turnout from slipping back to 2014 levels.

[UncleSam]

Let’s not forget the 47% of GOP voters who are anti-vax, and who might not be around by the midterms. I hate to be morbid, but Covid is still definitely a factor.

Covid mortality is not that high, even among the unvaccinated. At most this will shift votes on the order of a hundred thousand across the entire country, which wouldn’t be likely to have an impact on any but the absolute closest races.

[hurricanehink]

Let’s not forget the 47% of GOP voters who are anti-vax, and who might not be around by the midterms. I hate to be morbid, but Covid is still definitely a factor.

Covid mortality is not that high, even among the unvaccinated. At most this will shift votes on the order of a hundred thousand across the entire country, which wouldn’t be likely to have an impact on any but the absolute closest races.

I seem to recall an Atlas thread about shifting 100,000 votes across the country… that could’ve been huge in 2020!

[UncleSam]

Let’s not forget the 47% of GOP voters who are anti-vax, and who might not be around by the midterms. I hate to be morbid, but Covid is still definitely a factor.

Covid mortality is not that high, even among the unvaccinated. At most this will shift votes on the order of a hundred thousand across the entire country, which wouldn’t be likely to have an impact on any but the absolute closest races.

I seem to recall an Atlas thread about shifting 100,000 votes across the country… that could’ve been huge in 2020!

If all of them were in like four select states, yes. In reality half of them would be in CA, FL, NY, and TX. And it’s extremely unlikely the total number would be that high to boot.

[brucejoel99]

I dont think we'll see 2014 level poor turnout for a while

Just this week Morning Consult released a poll saying that Democrats are wearing out and the GOP is getting more motivated.

If Biden can't get something substantive (i.e. not the bipartisan infrastructure bill) passed, then we might have a chance, but if he doesn't I think that we are looking more at a 2014 level of turnout than 2018.

The American Jobs & Families Plan's FY2022 reconciliation package & the public option's FY2023 reconciliation package?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The D's need VR to pass in addition to the Reconciliation aciage which doesn't include another stimulus check in order to get rid of R Gerrymandering in the Deep South, the Reconciliation package doesn't end Gerrymandering districts and we know that

But, even if Manchin bill passed, with computer districts, we don't know what ACB or Kavanaugh whom are the new swing Justices but we know Alito, Gorsuch and Thomas are for Gerrymandering and will attempt to gum up the works on any VR reform that D's attempt to pass and no Federal Law trump SCOTUS unless it changes the number of justices or Constitution Amendment

Remember states were trying to pass term limits in 1990,s and the Crts struck it down

If the Election were held today in a 50/45 Biden approval just like 51/46 on Election night D's would loose the H, get AZ, MD, MA and NH Govs and loose KS and win WI and OA Sen with GA and NH going to wire without VR Reform

[R.P. McM]

A reasonable theory, but I tend to disagree; I think we're in for at least a temporary reversion to mean in 2022 after the high turnout of the Trump years. The other big factor for me is that I think Biden, at least so far, has provoked relatively low levels of Republican outrage, so I think there's a real chance that Republicans may not have the levels of heightened turnout that the out-party has generally had in recent mid-terms.

Of course, there's still a long time until 2022, and legislation, Supreme Court cases, and various controversies could stoke turnout on both sides. I also agree with point 3, inasmuch as I think extreme partisanship will prevent turnout from slipping back to 2014 levels.

LOL. A majority of Republicans literally believe the Biden presidency is a product of massive voter fraud. So please, stop it.

Centrist Democrats, on the other hand, don't recognize an enemy when he punches them in the face and promises to murder their children. So nothing substantive will be accomplished with respect to safeguarding democracy, preventing voter suppression, curtailing gerrymandering, mitigating climate change, approving DC statehood, unpacking the SC, etc. Grassroots Democrats will justifiably conclude that the national party is owned by the same corporate interests as the GOP, and completely unwilling/unable to institute meaningful change. So they'll sit on their hands in 2022, and the Congressional caucus will be wiped out.

[chalmetteowl]

Reasons:

1. 2018

The 2018 midterms had record turnout for a midterm, with both sides, especially Democrats, having a strong showing in terms of raw votes. I personally know a few people who didn't vote in midterms before 2018 but have said they are more committed to voting in midterm elections in the future. I just have a hard time seeing enough people who were politically engaged enough to show up in 2018 not show up in 2022 to go back to 2014 level turnout.

2. Trump will (probably) still be an issue

On the Republican side, you have a lot of voters who are determined to get him back in power any way they can; he's likely to be active on the campaign trail too and could help motivate the base. We saw in 2018 that Republicans had a strong showing turnout-wise (Democrats just did better), and I think a large part of that was Trump keeping his "cult" of otherwise disengaged voters engaged.

Democrats on the other hand may be able to carry over a bit of anti-Trump energy because of fear he could come back.

3. Extreme partisanship

This one is pretty self-explanatory. Trump Republicans generally absolutely hate the Biden administration and want to do whatever it takes to weaken it. Democrats for the most part really do not want Trump Republicans in power.

4. Democrats have fear too

In the 2010 and 2014 elections; notorious for being low-turnout red waves, there wasn't really much fear on the Democrats side. Most of the main things in the media as to why Democrats should vote felt inconsequential, far away, and purely political to the average voter. While Democrats did not want the GOP in power, there really wasn't a fear of them regaining power other than amongst extreme partisans and political insiders who were already likely to show up.

Right now however, Democrats seem to have been to keep up energy around issues of voting rights. When you make people actually worried their fundamental right to vote could be in jeopardy, you create political energy that reaches even people who otherwise may not vote in midterms a reason to show up. This could boost Dem turnout in states like GA and TX especially which have been in the media a lot recently

There may also be a whole media cycle on redistricting which could create more fear

Also, as I said earlier, Trump fear may still be there a bit




Ultimately, I'm not sure which side, if either will benefit from this high turnout. But especially in midterms, who shows up and who doesn't plays a significant role in the election outcome.

Love to hear your thoughts on what you think turnout will be like in 2022.

Democrats currently have the White House, House, and Senate... how would they be more excited to turn out next year when they will have had all 3 for two years and still not got most of what they wanted done?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Reasons:

1. 2018

The 2018 midterms had record turnout for a midterm, with both sides, especially Democrats, having a strong showing in terms of raw votes. I personally know a few people who didn't vote in midterms before 2018 but have said they are more committed to voting in midterm elections in the future. I just have a hard time seeing enough people who were politically engaged enough to show up in 2018 not show up in 2022 to go back to 2014 level turnout.

2. Trump will (probably) still be an issue

On the Republican side, you have a lot of voters who are determined to get him back in power any way they can; he's likely to be active on the campaign trail too and could help motivate the base. We saw in 2018 that Republicans had a strong showing turnout-wise (Democrats just did better), and I think a large part of that was Trump keeping his "cult" of otherwise disengaged voters engaged.

Democrats on the other hand may be able to carry over a bit of anti-Trump energy because of fear he could come back.

3. Extreme partisanship

This one is pretty self-explanatory. Trump Republicans generally absolutely hate the Biden administration and want to do whatever it takes to weaken it. Democrats for the most part really do not want Trump Republicans in power.

4. Democrats have fear too

In the 2010 and 2014 elections; notorious for being low-turnout red waves, there wasn't really much fear on the Democrats side. Most of the main things in the media as to why Democrats should vote felt inconsequential, far away, and purely political to the average voter. While Democrats did not want the GOP in power, there really wasn't a fear of them regaining power other than amongst extreme partisans and political insiders who were already likely to show up.

Right now however, Democrats seem to have been to keep up energy around issues of voting rights. When you make people actually worried their fundamental right to vote could be in jeopardy, you create political energy that reaches even people who otherwise may not vote in midterms a reason to show up. This could boost Dem turnout in states like GA and TX especially which have been in the media a lot recently

There may also be a whole media cycle on redistricting which could create more fear

Also, as I said earlier, Trump fear may still be there a bit




Ultimately, I'm not sure which side, if either will benefit from this high turnout. But especially in midterms, who shows up and who doesn't plays a significant role in the election outcome.

Love to hear your thoughts on what you think turnout will be like in 2022.

Democrats currently have the White House, House, and Senate... how would they be more excited to turn out next year when they will have had all 3 for two years and still not got most of what they wanted done?

The Rs are Filibustering everything VR and Infrastructure, I can care less about infrastructure because there aren't anymore Stimulus checks and Unemployment first time filers webt back up to 500,K, we are loosing jobs again


D's are gonna have at least 50 Senators next yr by winning WI and PA but AZ and GA are Tossups 278 blue wall

278 Govs if Newsom is upset Villigosa will win it back in 2022

[The Mikado]

A reasonable theory, but I tend to disagree; I think we're in for at least a temporary reversion to mean in 2022 after the high turnout of the Trump years. The other big factor for me is that I think Biden, at least so far, has provoked relatively low levels of Republican outrage, so I think there's a real chance that Republicans may not have the levels of heightened turnout that the out-party has generally had in recent mid-terms.

Of course, there's still a long time until 2022, and legislation, Supreme Court cases, and various controversies could stoke turnout on both sides. I also agree with point 3, inasmuch as I think extreme partisanship will prevent turnout from slipping back to 2014 levels.

What does "reversion to the mean" even mean when 2014 had record low midterm turnout and 2018 had record high midterm turnout? 2014's 37% turnout is no more normal than 2018's 51%.

[Orser67]

A reasonable theory, but I tend to disagree; I think we're in for at least a temporary reversion to mean in 2022 after the high turnout of the Trump years. The other big factor for me is that I think Biden, at least so far, has provoked relatively low levels of Republican outrage, so I think there's a real chance that Republicans may not have the levels of heightened turnout that the out-party has generally had in recent mid-terms.

Of course, there's still a long time until 2022, and legislation, Supreme Court cases, and various controversies could stoke turnout on both sides. I also agree with point 3, inasmuch as I think extreme partisanship will prevent turnout from slipping back to 2014 levels.

What does "reversion to the mean" even mean when 2014 had record low midterm turnout and 2018 had record high midterm turnout? 2014's 37% turnout is no more normal than 2018's 51%.

With the exception of 2014 and 2018, every mid-term election since 1974 (the first mid-term since the passage of the 26th Amendment) has had turnout (by VEP) in between 38 and 42%. So "reversion to the mean" would be closer to around 40%.

I guess as of right now, I'd personally predict turnout to be somewhere in the mid-to-high 40s.

[Xing]

It could happen, I definitely think that at least a good portion of Democrats and Republicans who became more politically engaged during Trump’s presidency will remain active politically, though we’ll have to see to what extent that remains to be true in 2022.

[Mr. Smith]

I'm skeptical of this. Methinks 2006 is more likely.