MA-GOV 2022 Megathread
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March 29, 2024, 08:06:25 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #300 on: September 06, 2022, 09:39:04 PM »

Wondering if any Massachusetts voters here have made any final decisions about who they may vote for on Tuesday? There’s a lot of open statewide races, so there are some interesting contests (particularly on the Democratic side).

Healey
Driscoll
Campbell
Galvin
Dempsey
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Duke of York
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« Reply #301 on: September 06, 2022, 09:44:11 PM »

In November, Massachusetts will become the first state to elect a female Governor and Lieutenant Governor at the same time.

so will Arkansas
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Duke of York
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« Reply #302 on: September 06, 2022, 09:46:05 PM »

https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-abortion-politics-boston-presidential-dbe2bba5472d51c92bb8d653117b0bfc

Geoff Diehl wins the Republican primary for Governor

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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #303 on: September 06, 2022, 09:50:32 PM »

In November, Massachusetts will become the first state to elect a female Governor and Lieutenant Governor at the same time.

so will Arkansas

Yeah but … ewww Arkansas
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Duke of York
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« Reply #304 on: September 06, 2022, 11:50:34 PM »

I've been told and read that Diehl has no chance of winning the governorship. If so what do folks think is his ceiling in terms of percentage statewide?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #305 on: September 06, 2022, 11:53:14 PM »

I've been told and read that Diehl has no chance of winning the governorship. If so what do folks think is his ceiling in terms of percentage statewide?

I would think around 41-42% at most. Though I think he does better than Dan Cox.
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leecannon
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« Reply #306 on: September 07, 2022, 12:10:28 AM »

In November, Massachusetts will become the first state to elect a female Governor and Lieutenant Governor at the same time.

so will Arkansas

Yeah but … ewww Arkansas

Also potentially Rhode Island
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iBizzBee
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« Reply #307 on: September 07, 2022, 01:27:09 AM »

I had no idea Healy was apart of the LGBTQ+ community but think it's pretty cool to note that by the end of the year we could have 3 openly gay governors (CO, OR, MA) which is real progress considering where we started the century.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #308 on: September 07, 2022, 04:12:38 AM »

I've been told and read that Diehl has no chance of winning the governorship. If so what do folks think is his ceiling in terms of percentage statewide?

35%
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #309 on: September 07, 2022, 06:02:30 PM »

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Duke of York
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« Reply #310 on: September 07, 2022, 08:06:40 PM »

I've been told and read that Diehl has no chance of winning the governorship. If so what do folks think is his ceiling in terms of percentage statewide?

35%

that sounds reasonable.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
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« Reply #311 on: September 07, 2022, 11:52:27 PM »
« Edited: September 08, 2022, 07:39:53 AM by Official Penguin Books Account »

I think his actual ceiling is significantly higher, something like 43%. But he’ll settle in around 36% in the end.

I will say it's funny that the former Obama voter (Diehl) is an "ultraconservative" while the lifelong Republican partisan (Baker) is a "moderate." Baker has also done a hell of a lot more for Trump than Diehl through party fundraising, but Diehl embraces Trump publicly while Baker disdains him. Shows how much of everything is skin-deep framing and more so than ever in the Trump era.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #312 on: September 08, 2022, 07:36:25 AM »

MA and MD GOP really picked some winners here... jesus
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MarkD
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« Reply #313 on: September 22, 2022, 11:54:01 PM »

There are a few more Republicans running for the state legislature as of now than what I said previously in Reply #287 on this thread. Now the number of Republican nominees for the state senate is an even 20, half of all the seats, whereas Dems have nominees for only 38 of the 40 seats. Besides the 20 GOP nominees and the 38 Dem nominees, there are 5 other candidates running as either a minor-party nominee or an independent -- 1 in a district with both an R and a D, 1 in a district against only an R, and 3 in districts against only a D.
In the house, there are now 58 Republican nominees. 41 of them are running against a Dem, 16 of them are running w/o a Dem opponent, and 1 is running against the only incumbent Independent state rep -- Susannah Whipps. (To review her political history, ten years ago, she ran for 2nd Franklin District as a Republican, and narrowly lost by just 1.1 points. Two years later, she ran again, and easily beat the incumbent Dem by over 9 points. Two years after that, in 2016, she ran unopposed, still as a Republican. But in 2017 she announced she was leaving the GOP and becoming an Independent. In 2018 and 2020, she was reelected as an Independent against only Dem opponents; Republicans did not have anyone running against her in either race. Now she is running against a GOP opponent, but not a Dem opponent, and there's a second independent running too. Redistricting has made her district a few points more Democratic, making it a lean D district, whereas it had previously been a tilt R district.)

I still stand by my previous prediction in the gubernatorial race: I think Healey wins by 57% to 41%. Dems, of course, will sweep all of the rest of the state exec offices -- Sos, Treasurer, and Auditor (there isn't even a Republican running for Treasurer). There's no Republican running for the US House in the 4th congressional district, but certainly none of the eight Republicans who are running are going to win. And like I predicted before, I think Republicans are going to pick up 2, 3, or 4 more senate seats, and maybe 4, 5, or 6 more house seats.
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Woody
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« Reply #314 on: October 27, 2022, 03:16:12 PM »


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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #315 on: October 27, 2022, 03:18:37 PM »

MA and MD GOP really picked some winners here... jesus


Independent females picked the GOP candidates just like in PA they picked Oz instead of McCormick, McCormick was the strongest because of OWN and Dr Phil show, so alot of these were indy women whom decided to vote in R primaries because Ds didn't have that many contested primaries just like they picked wrong in IL, Sullivan was the Maverick not Bailey but indies picked bad candidates so Ds can win in NOV too
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AMB1996
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« Reply #316 on: October 27, 2022, 08:22:23 PM »

Weld is such a character.
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MarkD
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« Reply #317 on: December 11, 2022, 11:55:03 AM »

There are a few more Republicans running for the state legislature as of now than what I said previously in Reply #287 on this thread. Now the number of Republican nominees for the state senate is an even 20, half of all the seats, whereas Dems have nominees for only 38 of the 40 seats. Besides the 20 GOP nominees and the 38 Dem nominees, there are 5 other candidates running as either a minor-party nominee or an independent -- 1 in a district with both an R and a D, 1 in a district against only an R, and 3 in districts against only a D.
In the house, there are now 58 Republican nominees. 41 of them are running against a Dem, 16 of them are running w/o a Dem opponent, and 1 is running against the only incumbent Independent state rep -- Susannah Whipps. (To review her political history, ten years ago, she ran for 2nd Franklin District as a Republican, and narrowly lost by just 1.1 points. Two years later, she ran again, and easily beat the incumbent Dem by over 9 points. Two years after that, in 2016, she ran unopposed, still as a Republican. But in 2017 she announced she was leaving the GOP and becoming an Independent. In 2018 and 2020, she was reelected as an Independent against only Dem opponents; Republicans did not have anyone running against her in either race. Now she is running against a GOP opponent, but not a Dem opponent, and there's a second independent running too. Redistricting has made her district a few points more Democratic, making it a lean D district, whereas it had previously been a tilt R district.)

I still stand by my previous prediction in the gubernatorial race: I think Healey wins by 57% to 41%. Dems, of course, will sweep all of the rest of the state exec offices -- Sos, Treasurer, and Auditor (there isn't even a Republican running for Treasurer). There's no Republican running for the US House in the 4th congressional district, but certainly none of the eight Republicans who are running are going to win. And like I predicted before, I think Republicans are going to pick up 2, 3, or 4 more senate seats, and maybe 4, 5, or 6 more house seats.

As it happens more often than not, my predictions were terrible. Republicans did not gain ANY more seats in the state legislature than they had won in 2020 -- they held even at just 3 seats in the senate, and they have lost a few seats in the house. Even Shawn Dooley lost to incumbent Democrat senator Rebecca Rausch, and Leonard Mirra won reelection by a margin of only 10 votes.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #318 on: December 15, 2022, 10:45:37 AM »

In case anyone what Baker was planning on doing after being Governor.

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leecannon
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« Reply #319 on: December 15, 2022, 01:27:34 PM »

In case anyone what Baker was planning on doing after being Governor.



huh, that’s an interesting change of careers
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President Johnson
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« Reply #320 on: December 15, 2022, 02:29:44 PM »

In case anyone what Baker was planning on doing after being Governor.



huh, that’s an interesting change of careers

Definitely. Seems like he's really interested in that, though, not in for the money.

I would actually have liked him to stay around, perhaps serve in the Biden Administration.
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leecannon
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« Reply #321 on: December 15, 2022, 05:07:18 PM »

In case anyone what Baker was planning on doing after being Governor.



huh, that’s an interesting change of careers

Definitely. Seems like he's really interested in that, though, not in for the money.

I would actually have liked him to stay around, perhaps serve in the Biden Administration.

Ambassador to India is still open 😂
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Figueira
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« Reply #322 on: December 15, 2022, 05:59:52 PM »

In case anyone what Baker was planning on doing after being Governor.



huh, that’s an interesting change of careers

Definitely. Seems like he's really interested in that, though, not in for the money.

I would actually have liked him to stay around, perhaps serve in the Biden Administration.

I would be disappointed if Biden appointed a Geoff Diehl supporter to anything.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #323 on: January 31, 2023, 07:59:23 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2023, 10:18:34 PM by Roll Roons »



Good riddance to bad rubbish. I suppose there's really nowhere for this party to go but up, but getting rid of their terrible chairman is a start.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #324 on: February 01, 2023, 03:28:18 AM »

Lyons was (and IS) an extremist, so - really "good riddance". It was sad to observe far right wing Republican candidates in former "liberal Republican heaven". Carnevale seems to be a standard Reagan conservative, but at least - there is hope that she understand difference between Massachusetts and Oklahoma...
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