MA-GOV 2022 Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They need to poll these races even if they are Titanium D

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/sentandent/status/1528167312314052608?s=21&t=m2FNymSA2Ea...

[Senator Incitatus]

No shock there.

[Figueira]

I don't know much about Doughty but he seems pretty low-energy from what I can tell. Also, he's from Wrentham (the same town that Scott Brown is from), LOL.

[NerdyBohemian]

I don't know much about Doughty but he seems pretty low-energy from what I can tell. Also, he's from Wrentham (the same town that Scott Brown is from), LOL.

Wrentham is the quintessential double digit Romney-> Barely Clinton -> double digit Biden town in Massachusetts.

[MillennialModerate]

Really wish Baker ran again.

Not overly excited about Healey

[Roll Roons]

In light of what happened in Georgia, there's no doubt in my mind that Baker would have easily won his primary (and obviously the general) if he had run for reelection.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna reaffirm the 303 blue wall anyways 2012/16/18/20, anything less than 303 it's not gonna happen for Rs

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Really wish Baker ran again.

Not overly excited about Healey

Nobody should care whether or not they're "excited" about a Governor who will stop Baker's cold-hearted ALEC-y cuts to vocational rehab and continuing education and hopefully also move away from his two-facedness about what happened in the Holyoke Soldiers' Home.

[JMT]

In light of what happened in Georgia, there's no doubt in my mind that Baker would have easily won his primary (and obviously the general) if he had run for reelection.

I'm not so sure. Despite Trump's ire towards Kemp, Kemp is still deeply conservative. With the exception of not going along with Trump's request to assist in overturning the election results, Kemp didn't do anything to anger the base. Baker, on the other hand, is actually a moderate and governs like one. Even though Trump is broadly unpopular in MA, the Republican base here is conservative and they do NOT like Baker anymore. Polling indicated that Geoff Diehl would crush Baker in a primary. Maybe Baker could've made it close or even squeaked out a win in the end, but he would've been the underdog in the Republican primary.

I actually think Baker's best path to reelection would've been to switch to the Democratic Party. He's actually quite popular among Democrats here, and I think Maura Healey (and other big names) would've stayed out of the race had he ran. As the Democratic nominee, he would've crushed Diehl in the general.

With all that said, I actually never thought Baker would run for a third term (as a Republican, Democrat, or Independent), even before he announced his retirement. Watching him on TV, he just looks tired and frustrated; managing the COVID-19 response wore him down in my opinion. I think he's ready to retire from politics altogether, hence why he's not running again this year.  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Baker would have won the GE like Sununu but he was losing in the R primary poll

[DPKdebator]

I might actually try to vote in the Republican primary when the time comes around for that. Diehl is probably closer to my views, but a Trumpy Republican is a complete nonstarter in terms of electability here. Doughty is more of a generic business Republican (his website platform doesn't mention social issues), which is closer to the brand that the MAGOP needs to focus on if it wants to become anything beyond a joke party that holds three seats in the state senate and 29 in the state house. Diehl will likely win the primary easily, but it's important to remember that 55% of registered voters in MA are unenrolled (independent) and can thus choose a primary to vote in. Things could get interesting if a lot of independent liberals cross over to vote in the Republican primary, which is plausible given Healey is set to run away with the Democratic primary. I suspect this would have saved Baker if he ran for a third term, and the few polls conducted on this hypothetical seemed to only have focused on base GOP voters and not include independents.

[MarkD]

How about making some predictions?

I think Healey will win by 57% to Diehl's 41%, with 2% for others on the ballot and write-ins. I think Diehl carries Plymouth County and Worcester County by very narrow margins, and gets close to about 45% in Barnstable, Essex, and Hampden Counties too. But Berkshire, Dukes, Franklin, Hampshire, and Suffolk Counties will be at least 2-1 for Healey.

Another thing I'll be looking closely at after the election is how well the GOP does in the state legislature. Two years ago, they only won 3 senate seats - an all-time low - and 30 House seats. But they only had 8 nominees running for the 40 seats in the Senate - which was also an all-time low - and they had only 52 nominees running for the 160 seats in the House. This year, the GOP will have 55 nominees running for the House and they'll have 19 nominees running for the Senate.

In my estimation, they've mostly got the right idea for which seats to try to run for: districts that are more Republican than average for the whole state. I analyzed election results for each of the 200 districts using election results from the last three presidential races, both Senate races in which Liz Warren was the D nominee, and the two gubernatorial elections that Baker won. And I also re-analyzed as many of the districts as I could, using the same data, to see if redistricting raised the Republican vote or raised the Democratic vote. Because precinct boundaries themselves are changing quite significantly in a few cities (Boston, Methuen, Framingham, Cambridge, Worcester), I couldn't do the re-analysis with all 40 senate districts and all 160 house districts, but nevertheless, I could do it with about 3/4s of all the districts (and some districts did not change at all).

Of the 19 senate districts Republicans are running in, only one of them is too Democratic to have any hope of winning. Second Plymouth and Norfolk District (Brockton, Avon, Halifax, Hanson, Whitman, and 5 of the 12 precincts in Randolph) is more Democratic than average for the state in all seven of the elections that I analyzed, so the guy running for the Republicans there is just setting himself up as a sacrificial lamb. But all 18 of the other senate districts where they're running have a higher Republican "floor" than average, so there are certainly some good chances among those 18 where they can win back some seats that they have lost in recent election cycles. One of their best shots at winning back a seat they lost four years ago is in the new Norfolk, Worcester, and Middlesex, districts (formerly, for the last few decades, Norfolk, Middlesex, and Bristol). State Rep. Shawn Dooley, of the 9th Norfolk house district, is running against the incumbent Democrat Senator Rebecca Rausch. That house district and that senate district were where previous Republicans Richard Ross and Scott Brown had served in the past, so Dooley is trying to follow in their footsteps, and I think he's got a very good shot at winning. Redistricting changed that senate district to make it a couple points more Republican than before. Overall, I predict that Republicans will probably win 7 senate seats this year. (Of the three incumbent Republicans, two are running unopposed this year.)

In the house, only 4 of the 55 districts Republicans are running in are too heavily Democratic for there to be any realistic chance at winning (14th Middlesex, 2nd Norfolk, 11th Suffolk, and 17th Worcester), but the other 51 districts they are trying for are winnable. They won't win all 51 of them, of course, but I think they'll win more than the 30 seats they won two years ago, perhaps about 34-36 seats. But there are 24 other seats that the GOP do not have any candidates running which are very much like the 51 potentially winnable seats they are running for. I'm referring, again, to districts that had a higher "Republican floor" than average. The state GOP certainly failed to recruit enough candidates to run for the state house, and if they had recruited as many as 24 more, then they might have been able to win 40 or more seats this year. In the last 30 years, they haven't won any more than 35.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs did D's a favor by pushing Baker out the race we would have lost this race for sure if Baker ran

[smoltchanov]

The Rs did D's a favor by pushing Baker out the race we would have lost this race for sure if Baker ran

Obviously. For too many Republicans it's better to lose heavily with Diehl then to win with Baker... Idiots....

[Senator Incitatus]

@Mark: I don’t see this being a particularly strong year for Massachusetts Republicans, and they’re all basically sacrificial lambs in any cycle, but the Brockton race probably drew a challenger because Brady is a particularly weak incumber: ethics issues, multiple DUIs, and low support within his own party. Unlike most of the Democrats I’m not sure if he’s ever run unopposed.

The district is also a bit inelastic in that it encircles Brockton in with some of the most Republican towns east of Worcester. In an election where Republicans and independents turn out but Brockton Democrats just don’t show, Republicans could have a prayer. Diehl’s also from the district, which should boost their turnout a bit. (Brockton also has a non-negligible white Hispanic population, though there wasn’t much movement there compared to the Portuguese areas further south.)

Looks like redistricting has added Randolph, though, so the Democrats should still be safe. Not sure if Brady has a primary challenger again, but he’d be ripe for one.

[MarkD]

@Mark: I don’t see this being a particularly strong year for Massachusetts Republicans, and they’re all basically sacrificial lambs in any cycle, but the Brockton race probably drew a challenger because Brady is a particularly weak incumber: ethics issues, multiple DUIs, and low support within his own party. Unlike most of the Democrats I’m not sure if he’s ever run unopposed.

The district is also a bit inelastic in that it encircles Brockton in with some of the most Republican towns east of Worcester. In an election where Republicans and independents turn out but Brockton Democrats just don’t show, Republicans could have a prayer. Diehl’s also from the district, which should boost their turnout a bit. (Brockton also has a non-negligible white Hispanic population, though there wasn’t much movement there compared to the Portuguese areas further south.)

Looks like redistricting has added Randolph, though, so the Democrats should still be safe. Not sure if Brady has a primary challenger again, but he’d be ripe for one.

Yes, Brady has one opponent in the D primary: Katrina M. Huff-Larmond of Randolph. He had an opponent in the primary two years ago, but not in 2016 or 2018. And yes, given that five of the twelve precincts of Randolph were added to the district, that still ensures it will be pretty safe D.

[Senator Incitatus]

@Mark: I don’t see this being a particularly strong year for Massachusetts Republicans, and they’re all basically sacrificial lambs in any cycle, but the Brockton race probably drew a challenger because Brady is a particularly weak incumber: ethics issues, multiple DUIs, and low support within his own party. Unlike most of the Democrats I’m not sure if he’s ever run unopposed.

The district is also a bit inelastic in that it encircles Brockton in with some of the most Republican towns east of Worcester. In an election where Republicans and independents turn out but Brockton Democrats just don’t show, Republicans could have a prayer. Diehl’s also from the district, which should boost their turnout a bit. (Brockton also has a non-negligible white Hispanic population, though there wasn’t much movement there compared to the Portuguese areas further south.)

Looks like redistricting has added Randolph, though, so the Democrats should still be safe. Not sure if Brady has a primary challenger again, but he’d be ripe for one.

Yes, Brady has one opponent in the D primary: Katrina M. Huff-Larmond of Randolph. He had an opponent in the primary two years ago, but not in 2016 or 2018. And yes, given that five of the twelve precincts of Randolph were added to the district, that still ensures it will be pretty safe D.

I'd give Huff-Larmond pretty decent odds; she should carry Randolph pretty easily and Brady lost Brockton last time out. And I'd wager a lot of potential Brady voters will take an R ballot or just stay home.

[Aspi]

Any news/polls on MA-LG (D)?  WBUR will hold a debate on Aug 16.

[JMT]

Any news/polls on MA-LG (D)?  WBUR will hold a debate on Aug 16.

The last poll I saw was a UMass Amherst poll that gave Kim Driscoll 17%, Eric Lesser 12%, Tami Gouveia 10%, and 61% undecided.

I think Kim Driscoll is probably the frontrunner, as she has lead in every poll and probably has the most endorsements (including the endorsement of the MA Democratic Party, as she got the most votes at the state party convention). But, there’s still a lot of undecided voters so I think any candidate could win. I believe Eric Lesser has raised the most money, and has national connections from his time in the Obama Administration. He’s also the only candidate from Western Mass, which could help him win support there. Tami Gouveia appears to be running as the most progressive candidate, so she could have a chance if she consolidates that vote while moderates split between Driscoll and Lesser (even though Lesser, at least, is still quite progressive). That’s my take on the race, at least. I think it’s a wide open race still, but Driscoll is the frontrunner.

I’ll be voting for Eric Lesser, and I hope he wins.

[NewYorkExpress]

So, MassINC polled the Democratic Primaries for most of the downballiot statewide races, and there are some interesting numbers here.

Lieutenant Governor

Kim Driscoll 15%
Tami Gouleva 8%
Eric Lesser 7%
Some Other Candidate 6%
Would Not Vote 1%
Don't Know/Refused 62%

Attorney General

Andrea Campbell 24%
Shannon Liss-Riordan 16$
Quinten Palfrey 4%
Some Other Candidate 4%
Would Not Vote 2%
Don't Know/Refused 50%

Secretary of State

Bill Galvin 43%
Tanisha Sullivan 15%
Some Other Candidate 3%
Would Not Vote 1%
Don't Know/Refused 38%

State Auditor

Chris Dempsey 14%
Dana DiZoglio 14%
Some Other Candidate 4%
Would Not Vote 1%
Don't Know/Refused 66%

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

A lot of undecideds, Election Day will be interesting

[JMT]

Wondering if any Massachusetts voters here have made any final decisions about who they may vote for on Tuesday? There’s a lot of open statewide races, so there are some interesting contests (particularly on the Democratic side).

[progressive85]

Wondering if any Massachusetts voters here have made any final decisions about who they may vote for on Tuesday? There’s a lot of open statewide races, so there are some interesting contests (particularly on the Democratic side).

I voted early.  I chose Maura Healey for Governor, Kim Driscoll for Lieutenant Governor, Andrea Campbell for Attorney General, Tanisha Sullivan for Secretary of State, and Chris Dempsey for State Auditor.

[MillennialModerate]

In November, Massachusetts will become the first state to elect a female Governor and Lieutenant Governor at the same time.