AL-SEN: Shelby retiring

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well, the potential for another conviction vote just increased.

On the downside his successor is sure to be much worse, as usual. But crazy is a dime a dozen in the Alabama GOP. Which crazy is it going to be though? Mo Brooks? Is Roy Moore going to try again (he'd probably win the general election this time. Republicans only care about pedophiles when they falsely accuse Democrats and other enemies of theirs of it)? I'd say that it's yet another Kobach-Marshall situation, but every Alabama Republican is basically Kris Kobach.

If there was anyone I would root for to be the Republican nominee in this state it would be Jeff Sessions. I know that he won't do it but he would be the only remote chance for Democrats to win here. I wouldn't be surprised if Alabama Republicans back a Democrat who has been quiet about Trump over the Republican nominee who "betrayed" Trump at this point. The GOP is, and may always be, nothing but Trump's personality cult from now on. That's become abundantly clear and even more so since the January 6 insurrection.

[Adam Griffin]

Gus Malzahn just took a $21.5 mil buyout and could self-fund. There's also an open seat in NC for Gene Chizik — just need to find something for Terry Bowden to complete the set of failed Auburn coaches in the US Senate.

NO WEIRD YANKEE/EURO-TRASH SURNAMES IN OUR BELOVED SOUTHRON D CONTESTS

[ultraviolet]

Cook will probably move this to Likely R.

Yeah who won the last open seat in Alabama? Obviously tossup

-cook

[Sestak]

Cook will probably move this to Likely R.

Yeah who won the last open seat in Alabama?

That would be Jeff Sessions in 1996.

[ultraviolet]

Cook will probably move this to Likely R.

Yeah who won the last open seat in Alabama?

That would be Jeff Sessions in 1996.

2017?

[Figueira]

Cook will probably move this to Likely R.

Yeah who won the last open seat in Alabama?

That would be Jeff Sessions in 1996.

2017?

Technically that wasn't an open seat because Luther Strange was a candidate in the primary, but yeah, it basically counts.

Anyway, I'm sure the Alabama GOP will manage to find someone sufficiently bad.

[MT Treasurer]

inb4 MT Treasurer makes some snarky and obnoxious "Likely D imo tbh" post

No, I will not do that. There is no place for sarcasm and unfunny attempts at wit in this thread. As evidenced by the contributions of the previous posters, this thread is intended for serious discussion and hard-hitting analysis, not nonsense like that which adds not a modicum of substance to the matter at hand.

Actual high-quality contribution below.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

🚨 Ratings change 🚨

Alabama

02/04/2021

United States Senate, Class III, Richard G. Shelby (R, inc.) - Safe R

02/05/2021

United States Senate, Class III, OPEN - Lean R

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Initial 2022 Analysis:

Alabama

02/05/2021

United States Senate, Class III, OPEN

The retirement of six-term Republican Senator Richard Shelby may not have caught Republican national leaders by the same surprise as Ohio Senator Rob Portman's retirement last week, but it is just the latest piece of bad news in what is shaping up to be an uphill battle for Republicans to defend several open Senate seats and retake the Senate in 2022.

"Incumbents always start out with an advantage for a variety of reasons, above all fundraising, name recognition, statewide familiarity, popularity, and campaign prowess on the ground, which is why this race would not have been on anyone's radar screen if Senator Shelby had decided to seek a seventh term," Amy W. Walter of MT(P)R Political Report clarified. "Now, Republicans are still favorites to hold the seat in what remains a state Trump carried by 25 percentage points, but at the very least, the seat is likely to give Republican strategists a headache amidst an already daunting Senate landscape upended by retirements of popular Republican incumbents in Ohio (Robert J. Portman), Pennsylvania (Patrick J. Toomey Jr.), and North Carolina (Richard M. Burr)."

"At the end of the day, it’s about more than just Alabama," Jennifer E. Duffy, senior editor for MT(P)R Political Report, emphasized. "This is not a situation like in Pennsylvania, where the incumbent may have been the only Republican who could have successfully defended the seat. Republicans still have a good chance of holding Alabama, but the real question is whether this national trend of incumbents retiring continues or not." Republican sources who want to remain anonymous have confirmed rumors that two-term Senator Roy D. Blunt of Missouri and seven-term Senator Charles E. Grassley of Iowa might forgo another term, which would significantly worsen already poor Republican prospects of retaking the upper chamber. "Roy is really strong, he knows how to run effective campaigns. I think Jason Kander would be Senator right now if we hadn’t persuaded him to run again in 2016," one Missouri strategist privately acknowledged.

Privately, Republicans in Alabama and D.C. alike are fretting over a potential repeat of the last open Senate race in the state, when the confirmation of Jeff Sessions (R) as Attorney General allowed Democrat Doug Jones to win an open seat in what is normally a ruby-red state. "Shelby is a real powerhourse in Alabama politics, I’m just not sure if there’s anyone out there who can match him on the ground," one concerned Republican local official told MT(P)R Political Report. The question the party now has to grapple with is whether Shelby's decision, much like that of other Republican incumbents, is a sign Republicans are anticipating yet another tough environment in 2022. In an increasingly polarized environment, Alabama may prove to be a mountain too tough to climb for Democrats, but the ramifications of Shelby's retirement for potential marquee Senate battles in Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, and North Carolina are hard to ignore.

- Michael T. Reasurer Jr., MT(P)R Political Report

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Next:

Initial 2022 Analysis - United States Senate, Arkansas, John N. Bozeman (R, inc.) - Safe R



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[Roronoa D. Law]

As much as I disagree with him on politics this yet another example of the "Brain Drain" of the Republican party.

[The Mikado]

As much as I disagree with him on politics this yet another example of the "Brain Drain" of the Republican party.

"Brain drain" isn't quite to the point. More like there's a system/anti-system axis in the GOP along with the conservative-moderate one, and Shelby is in the Conservative System quadrant and his replacement is going to be in the Conservative Antisystem quadrant, a firebrand like Mo Brooks.

Shelby's also the classic "workhorse not showhorse" who quietly grinds away in the powerful Appropriations Committee, while he'll be replaced by a hack who spends hours a week on cable news saying inflammatory things, if his replacement is Mo Brooks like we think it will be.

Their voting records will be identical, probably. But the effect on the Senate GOP caucus of having another loudmouth firebrand is more significant than any actual ideological difference.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Could Jeff Sessions run for this seat?

I believe I remember him stating after the primary that his life in public office is over

Well, I guess in hindsight, that's one good thing that Trump did for the country: the cancel culture of Jeff Sessions.

Politics aside, I do feel sorry for the man. For some reason, those in Trump's Party can't see that loyalty is a one-way street with Dear Leader.

[SnowLabrador]

Who's ready for Senator Mo Brooks?

[Coldstream]

Given Mo Brooks was beaten by such electoral titans as Luther Strange and Roy Moore last time he ran for the senate, I’m not convinced he’d win a primary. Though he’d obviously start as the favourite for name recognition if nothing else.

[brucejoel99]

Given Mo Brooks was beaten by such electoral titans as Luther Strange and Roy Moore last time he ran for the senate, I’m not convinced he’d win a primary. Though he’d obviously start as the favourite for name recognition if nothing else.

Nah, I think he could win now purely for having taken the last 4 years since his defeat to do nothing but further endear himself to "the God Emperor."

In any event, though, I don't think Brooks running is anywhere near assured, given that he chose his House seat over running against Jones last year. I think he might've only ran in 2017 because he didn't have to risk giving up his safe House seat & the perks thereof while doing so, so it was a "low-risk, high-reward" situation for him.

[Tekken_Guy]

Given Mo Brooks was beaten by such electoral titans as Luther Strange and Roy Moore last time he ran for the senate, I’m not convinced he’d win a primary. Though he’d obviously start as the favourite for name recognition if nothing else.

Nah, I think he could win now purely for having taken the last 4 years since his defeat to do nothing but further endear himself to "the God Emperor."

In any event, though, I don't think Brooks running is anywhere near assured, given that he chose his House seat over running against Jones last year. I think he might've only ran in 2017 because he didn't have to risk giving up his safe House seat & the perks thereof while doing so, so it was a "low-risk, high-reward" situation for him.

You think Trump’s influence in senate primaries will get bigger now that he’s out of office?

[brucejoel99]

Given Mo Brooks was beaten by such electoral titans as Luther Strange and Roy Moore last time he ran for the senate, I’m not convinced he’d win a primary. Though he’d obviously start as the favourite for name recognition if nothing else.

Nah, I think he could win now purely for having taken the last 4 years since his defeat to do nothing but further endear himself to "the God Emperor."

In any event, though, I don't think Brooks running is anywhere near assured, given that he chose his House seat over running against Jones last year. I think he might've only ran in 2017 because he didn't have to risk giving up his safe House seat & the perks thereof while doing so, so it was a "low-risk, high-reward" situation for him.

You think Trump’s influence in senate primaries will get bigger now that he’s out of office?

I think being a Trumpist is still the ticket to GOP downballot nominations for the time being.

[Tekken_Guy]

Given Mo Brooks was beaten by such electoral titans as Luther Strange and Roy Moore last time he ran for the senate, I’m not convinced he’d win a primary. Though he’d obviously start as the favourite for name recognition if nothing else.

Nah, I think he could win now purely for having taken the last 4 years since his defeat to do nothing but further endear himself to "the God Emperor."

In any event, though, I don't think Brooks running is anywhere near assured, given that he chose his House seat over running against Jones last year. I think he might've only ran in 2017 because he didn't have to risk giving up his safe House seat & the perks thereof while doing so, so it was a "low-risk, high-reward" situation for him.

You think Trump’s influence in senate primaries will get bigger now that he’s out of office?

I think being a Trumpist is still the ticket to GOP downballot nominations for the time being.

Why do you think that?

[Alben Barkley]

If Dems paid Saban a billion dollars to run, would he do it?

[brucejoel99]

Given Mo Brooks was beaten by such electoral titans as Luther Strange and Roy Moore last time he ran for the senate, I’m not convinced he’d win a primary. Though he’d obviously start as the favourite for name recognition if nothing else.

Nah, I think he could win now purely for having taken the last 4 years since his defeat to do nothing but further endear himself to "the God Emperor."

In any event, though, I don't think Brooks running is anywhere near assured, given that he chose his House seat over running against Jones last year. I think he might've only ran in 2017 because he didn't have to risk giving up his safe House seat & the perks thereof while doing so, so it was a "low-risk, high-reward" situation for him.

You think Trump’s influence in senate primaries will get bigger now that he’s out of office?

I think being a Trumpist is still the ticket to GOP downballot nominations for the time being.

Why do you think that?

I- ...

Because it's been made perfectly clear by literally everything happening in the GOP right now.

[Tekken_Guy]

Given Mo Brooks was beaten by such electoral titans as Luther Strange and Roy Moore last time he ran for the senate, I’m not convinced he’d win a primary. Though he’d obviously start as the favourite for name recognition if nothing else.

Nah, I think he could win now purely for having taken the last 4 years since his defeat to do nothing but further endear himself to "the God Emperor."

In any event, though, I don't think Brooks running is anywhere near assured, given that he chose his House seat over running against Jones last year. I think he might've only ran in 2017 because he didn't have to risk giving up his safe House seat & the perks thereof while doing so, so it was a "low-risk, high-reward" situation for him.

You think Trump’s influence in senate primaries will get bigger now that he’s out of office?

I think being a Trumpist is still the ticket to GOP downballot nominations for the time being.

Why do you think that?

I- ...

Because it's been made perfectly clear by literally everything happening in the GOP right now.

And how does that translate to primary election results?

[Donerail]

If Dems paid Saban a billion dollars to run, would he do it?

He's not exactly hurting for money...

[Suburbia]

Senator Mo Brooks or Mike Rogers?

Jones is finished in ALDP politics.....Walt Maddux should run for governor in 2022

[brucejoel99]

Given Mo Brooks was beaten by such electoral titans as Luther Strange and Roy Moore last time he ran for the senate, I’m not convinced he’d win a primary. Though he’d obviously start as the favourite for name recognition if nothing else.

Nah, I think he could win now purely for having taken the last 4 years since his defeat to do nothing but further endear himself to "the God Emperor."

In any event, though, I don't think Brooks running is anywhere near assured, given that he chose his House seat over running against Jones last year. I think he might've only ran in 2017 because he didn't have to risk giving up his safe House seat & the perks thereof while doing so, so it was a "low-risk, high-reward" situation for him.

You think Trump’s influence in senate primaries will get bigger now that he’s out of office?

I think being a Trumpist is still the ticket to GOP downballot nominations for the time being.

Why do you think that?

I- ...

Because it's been made perfectly clear by literally everything happening in the GOP right now.

And how does that translate to primary election results?

Praise Trump, win primaries. Literally that simple. Greene. Boebert. Cawthorn. Tuberville.

[Tekken_Guy]

Given Mo Brooks was beaten by such electoral titans as Luther Strange and Roy Moore last time he ran for the senate, I’m not convinced he’d win a primary. Though he’d obviously start as the favourite for name recognition if nothing else.

Nah, I think he could win now purely for having taken the last 4 years since his defeat to do nothing but further endear himself to "the God Emperor."

In any event, though, I don't think Brooks running is anywhere near assured, given that he chose his House seat over running against Jones last year. I think he might've only ran in 2017 because he didn't have to risk giving up his safe House seat & the perks thereof while doing so, so it was a "low-risk, high-reward" situation for him.

You think Trump’s influence in senate primaries will get bigger now that he’s out of office?

I think being a Trumpist is still the ticket to GOP downballot nominations for the time being.

Why do you think that?

I- ...

Because it's been made perfectly clear by literally everything happening in the GOP right now.

And how does that translate to primary election results?

Praise Trump, win primaries. Literally that simple. Greene. Boebert. Cawthorn. Tuberville.

All of those races happened when Trump was still president.

[brucejoel99]

Given Mo Brooks was beaten by such electoral titans as Luther Strange and Roy Moore last time he ran for the senate, I’m not convinced he’d win a primary. Though he’d obviously start as the favourite for name recognition if nothing else.

Nah, I think he could win now purely for having taken the last 4 years since his defeat to do nothing but further endear himself to "the God Emperor."

In any event, though, I don't think Brooks running is anywhere near assured, given that he chose his House seat over running against Jones last year. I think he might've only ran in 2017 because he didn't have to risk giving up his safe House seat & the perks thereof while doing so, so it was a "low-risk, high-reward" situation for him.

You think Trump’s influence in senate primaries will get bigger now that he’s out of office?

I think being a Trumpist is still the ticket to GOP downballot nominations for the time being.

Why do you think that?

I- ...

Because it's been made perfectly clear by literally everything happening in the GOP right now.

And how does that translate to primary election results?

Praise Trump, win primaries. Literally that simple. Greene. Boebert. Cawthorn. Tuberville.

All of those races happened when Trump was still president.

Tekken, it's not that hard to understand that Trump will still be a huge force to play in internal Republican politics going forward. Not only did he literally get his base to f**king storm the Capitol for him, but the few Representatives who dared to impeach him for doing that are literally now being censured by the day, with many of them already looking like they're DOA for re-nomination. Trumpism's not just going away in time for this upcoming cycle.

[Stuart98]

Given Mo Brooks was beaten by such electoral titans as Luther Strange and Roy Moore last time he ran for the senate, I’m not convinced he’d win a primary. Though he’d obviously start as the favourite for name recognition if nothing else.

Nah, I think he could win now purely for having taken the last 4 years since his defeat to do nothing but further endear himself to "the God Emperor."

In any event, though, I don't think Brooks running is anywhere near assured, given that he chose his House seat over running against Jones last year. I think he might've only ran in 2017 because he didn't have to risk giving up his safe House seat & the perks thereof while doing so, so it was a "low-risk, high-reward" situation for him.

You think Trump’s influence in senate primaries will get bigger now that he’s out of office?

I think being a Trumpist is still the ticket to GOP downballot nominations for the time being.

Why do you think that?

I- ...

Because it's been made perfectly clear by literally everything happening in the GOP right now.

And how does that translate to primary election results?

Praise Trump, win primaries. Literally that simple. Greene. Boebert. Cawthorn. Tuberville.

All of those races happened when Trump was still president.

Are you being intentionally dense?

As the past month has made clear:
Most rank and file members of your party still regard Trump as a god practically
Ergo, they like candidates who sound like Trump and tie themselves to Trump
Ergo, they'll vote for candidates who meet that description
Ergo, non-incumbents who don't meet that description don't appeal to most members of your party
Ergo, non-trumpy candidates are likely to lose open primaries, whether you like it or not.

If trumpists weren't still dominant then we wouldn't see Nancy Mace doing an about face from being "done with Trump" to being back to the typical trumpist bullsh*t in two weeks. Or only ten house republicans voting to do something about that insane woman from north Georgia.