Rate IN-01

[Tekken_Guy]

Rate IN-01 between Frank Mrvan and Jennifer Ruth Green.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Tilt R, I think this one could very well flip. It's Biden+8 but trending R, and the GOP has nominated a good candidate. Also I assume that inflation would hurt an already very poor city like Gary and its suburbs quite a bit.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Likely D. Might adjust this later if we get good polls for Ruth-Green.

[Spectator]

Lean D until proven otherwise.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lean D

[Bismarck]

Lean D closer to tilt than likely though.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Still lean D.

[Figueira]

Lean D, but should be Safe D in a just world. Green's latest attack on Mrvan was awful.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Maybe this will blow up in my face in a few weeks, but still Likely D.

Yes, Republicans made major gains here, but the Democratic vote base is still solid. Rural areas and the exurbs roared in 2020, the GOP flipped some places like Lake Station, but the Democratic vote in the big industrial cities was still solid and they flipped some places like Munster and Valparaiso in turn.

I don't know if Ruth-Green can get the votes necessary to overcome the Democratic base, or that the Democratic base will be so depressed as to allow a GOP flip. Mrvan is also not asleep at the wheel and also has a decent political brand in the area.

They can come close, but I'm not counting on it. Mrvan won by 16 percentage points in 2020 in basically the same district, after all. It was 10 percentage points more Democratic than the nation as a whole on the Congressional side, and 4 points for Presidential.



And I will repeat this until I die: NW Indiana isn't just Gary, and Gary hasn't been the largest city in the district in over a decade (it's Hammond).