Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021 (user search)
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  Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021  (Read 16711 times)
TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
« on: February 20, 2021, 02:25:53 PM »
« edited: February 20, 2021, 02:29:14 PM by TheDeadFlagBlues »

AMLO's approval rating is actually rather bad for a Mexican President. Something that people tend to miss is that Mexicans will approve of their Presidents by default. Calderon's tenure was perceived to be disastrous: before he was President, Mexico was a rather tranquil place to live in many respects, with a murder rate basically the equivalent of that in the US in 1990. Three years later, the murder rate had nearly tripled. At the same time, Mexico's economy had begun to stagnate. However, usually more people approved of him than disapproved.

I cannot convincingly explain why this is the case, only that I am aware of this phenomenon. There is a certain kind of Mexican voter who hates all parties and hates politics but who respects their President, even if they think the country is headed in the wrong direction. Only EPN was capable of causing almost all Mexicans to despise him - he is a historic figure in this regard and marks a watershed in after the Mexican Revolution imo.

As far as the anti-AMLO youth phenomenon goes: one of my unsubstantiated theories is that Mexicans supporting Presidents by default is a long hangover from the one-party state days and that it's largely the elderly who are conditioned to respect Presidents.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2021, 07:39:59 PM »

https://www.ft.com/content/44a1f03f-5a2e-4dcc-9e94-fcf5e49be2e2

"Deaths surge in Mexico as pandemic extracts a heavy toll"

It seems excess death in Mexico is among the highest in the world.  AMLO levels of support still mostly holding up speaks to his political skills at crafting the narrative.

AMLO's strategy of doing little, if any, fiscal stimulus while using the economy as a rationale of sorts for not imposing further restrictions is pretty cunning because it produces some buy-in among the lower classes.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2021, 01:44:54 PM »

Mexico will have mid-term elections for the Lower House on July 6th

There will be governor elections in

Baja California
Baja California Sur
Campeche
Colima
Guerrero
Michoacán
Nuevo León
Querétaro
San Luis Potosí
Sonora

Most likely it will be a MORENA sweep despite the emerging and most likely viewed a opportunist PAN-PRD-PRD alliance
what party would right wing populists support?

There is no "right-wing populist" tradition in Mexico because traditional Mexican nationalism derives its mythologies, symbols and rhetoric from the Mexican Revolution. This means that the base for this kind of politics is near non-existent.

Because the PRI was not particularly radical or socialist, there was no base for reactionary impulses and what came after the PRI was non-threatening to the middle class. AMLO is changing this to a degree but only somewhat.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2021, 01:49:54 PM »

Mexico will have mid-term elections for the Lower House on July 6th

There will be governor elections in

Baja California
Baja California Sur
Campeche
Colima
Guerrero
Michoacán
Nuevo León
Querétaro
San Luis Potosí
Sonora

Most likely it will be a MORENA sweep despite the emerging and most likely viewed a opportunist PAN-PRD-PRD alliance
what party would right wing populists support?

I think the nationalist non-establishment vote for sure went MORENA but especially AMLO in 2018.  With MORENA taking over the PRI vote, especially in the South, I am not sure where that vote will go.  Nationalism in Mexico is more associated with the Left so I suspect they will still go MORENA.

There's no basis whatsoever for right-wing nationalism in Mexico. There could be a basis for far-right politics but it'd have to find inspiration in Mexico's shortcomings as a country and use some other country as a reference point. Mexico's national heroes are all men of the left or liberal.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
« Reply #4 on: February 23, 2021, 06:52:18 PM »

PVEM aligning with Morena is hilarious.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2021, 11:31:52 AM »



Samuel Garcia and his wife are the ultimate San Pedro "fresa" stereotypes. If a writer invented these characters, he'd be trashed for being unrealistic and also uncreative, for leaning on stereotypes too heavily. The golf detail would be seen as excessive hyperbole.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2021, 04:32:59 PM »

Unless there has been some fundamental cultural change that I do not know about, basically every Mexican woman over the age of 30 who didn't graduate from a university would react to Monreal's behavior by thinking "what a dog! my husband's brother does the same thing to me" and then vote for him if they were already planning to do that.

One reason why there were large protests against violence against women in Mexico a few years ago is that it's a massive problem but that also implies that it's a cultural expectation that a substantial share of men are pervs who will routinely grope women in subways or publicly masturbate etc.
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