Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

[JM1295]

It's too bad that only a few people comment in this thread, I love Mexican politics! Governor races are starting to tighten for MORENA in Michoacan, Tlaxcala, and Zacatecas. MORENA is still looking at a strong performance though in Nayarit, Colima, Sinaloa, and Sonora and doing keeping things relatively close in BCS. MORENA is also likely to keep their legislative majority, albeit not a supermajority. Not an inherent fan of MORENA, but there is something really nice about seeing PRI get wiped out.

[JM1295]

Where do you find these polls? I can usually only find Massive Caller polls.

[JM1295]

Interesting that you cover Chihuahua today, given a new Massive Caller poll came out today showing Morena leading for the first time. I can see this being an upset in favor of Morena given the tight margins and how good Morena has been with voter outreach. Great writeups btw! They're really good reads.

[JM1295]

I think the accident in the 12th Metro line ended the political careers of both Ebrard and Sheinbaum respecting to the average person, Sheinbaum is trying to blame Mancera with the typical ''ThE PaSt GoVeRnMeNt CaUsEd AlL tHe FaIlUrEs'' but it isn't sticking with the General Public.

That's a pretty big blow for MORENA.  Are not Sheinbaum and Ebrard precisely the people talked about as the successors to AMLO in MORENA after 2024 ?

Yeah Sheinbaum in particular in seen as his disciple and who AMLO would back over everyone else. I'm not sure if this will be significant enough to sink them, given that they still have 3 years to turn things around. It isn't great obviously though.

[JM1295]

I'm curious to see how successful MORENA is with their outreach to the Mexican underclass that hasn't been involved in politics for years now, if at all. The polls could be underestimating them if MORENA's outreach is that good and impressive. Also, while a lot of governor races have become more competitive for MORENA, its interesting that the map has started opening up for MORENA again polling quite well in Chihuahua and Campeche now. I still expect them to win 7-8 governor races and see Chihuahua. Campeche, Zacatecas, and Michoacan as the true toss-ups.

[JM1295]

How do you guys see the federal/governor elections playing out? I see MORENA maintaining a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, but losing their key two-thirds majority. The governor elections should be very interesting as a lot of them have become competitive and tightened up recently. I predict the following:

MORENA wins: BC, Colima, Guerrero, Michoacan, Nayarit, Sinaloa, Sonora, Tlaxcala, Zacatecas
PRI/PAN/PRD wins: BCS, Chihuahua, Queretaro, San Luis Potosi
MC: Campeche, Nuevo Leon

Zacatecas, Campeche, and Chihuahua are the ones I'm most unsure of and closest to tossups, but these are my predictions. PRI would be down to like 5 governors if this holds lol and MORENA up to half of Mexico's governors.

[JM1295]

Wow MC not even being in contention in Campeche is interesting. The polls were super close in the state, but MC was typically leading in the polls. Early results look solid for MORENA so far.

[JM1295]

^We could see MORENA walk away with 12/15 governorships if that's the case, though BCS would be a hard swing for MORENA.

[JM1295]

Sonora and Zacatecas seemed liked they were getting fairly competitive and near tossups towards the end, but wow they weren't particularly close. BCS is the big surprise for me though given MORENA's polling in the state. 11/15 wins for MORENA along with the opposition only winning 2 governor races is a pretty good result for MORENA.

The narrative emerging from these elections from mainstream media is interesting to me. AMLO and MORENA losing their congressional supermajority is a loss for them, but the party holds half of the country's governorships and still holds a majority (through its party alliances) in the legislative branch. This all happened with the major parties uniting against MORENA mind you lol.

[JM1295]

Crazy to think PRI had something like two-thirds of all governorships in 2009. They got completely wiped out in these last elections.