Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

[Mike88]

The House election results so far: (92% in)

42.6% Morena/PVEM/PT, 184 seats
39.9% PAN/PRI/PRD, 109
  7.0% MC, 7
10.5% Others/Invalid, 0

52.1% Turnout

Morena itself has lost its majority, right? That isn't a good result for Obrador as he's now dependent on his allies, right?

Results from here: https://expansion.mx/prep2021

[Mike88]

The House election results so far: (92% in)

42.6% Morena/PVEM/PT, 184 seats
39.9% PAN/PRI/PRD, 109
  7.0% MC, 7
10.5% Others/Invalid, 0

52.1% Turnout

Morena itself has lost its majority, right? That isn't a good result for Obrador as he's now dependent on his allies, right?

Results from here: https://expansion.mx/prep2021

They lost the qualified majority (For modifying the constitution) but they still have the majority in Congress by my calculations:

JHH (AMLO'S Coalition): 285
VxM (The opposition): 192
MC: 23

Yes, but Morena alone doesn't have a majority, like they did since 2018, right?

[Mike88]

With 93% of the vote counted in PREP for Congressional vote we have (all non-NULL vote share)

                             Ahead    Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT    183              44.13%
PAN-PRI-PRD           110              41.32%
MC                             7                7.24%

Compared to my back-of-the-envelope projections it is
     
                               Ahead         My projection
MORENA                     64                  64
PVEM                           1                    0
MORENA-PVEM-PT      118               120
PAN                            33                 31
PRI                             11                   6
PRD                              0                   0
PAN-PRI-PRD              66                  75
MC                              7                    4


Vote by party (and projected PR seats)

PAN         19.17%     41
PRI          18.40%     40
PRD           3.75%      8
PVEM         5.54%    12
PT             3.29%      7
MC            7.24%    16
MORENA  35.30%    76
PES           2.81%
RSP          1.81%
FxM          2.59%

This gives us current seat count

MORENA-PVEM-PT        278
PAN-PRI-PRD               199
MC                               23

PES vote share still rising.  Most likely will not make it to the 3% threshold.

You're projecting 279 for Morena/PVEM/PT, 201 for PAN/PRI/PRD and 20 for MC, right?

[Mike88]

With 93% of the vote counted in PREP for Congressional vote we have (all non-NULL vote share)

                             Ahead    Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT    183              44.13%
PAN-PRI-PRD           110              41.32%
MC                             7                7.24%

Compared to my back-of-the-envelope projections it is
     
                               Ahead         My projection
MORENA                     64                  64
PVEM                           1                    0
MORENA-PVEM-PT      118               120
PAN                            33                 31
PRI                             11                   6
PRD                              0                   0
PAN-PRI-PRD              66                  75
MC                              7                    4


Vote by party (and projected PR seats)

PAN         19.17%     41
PRI          18.40%     40
PRD           3.75%      8
PVEM         5.54%    12
PT             3.29%      7
MC            7.24%    16
MORENA  35.30%    76
PES           2.81%
RSP          1.81%
FxM          2.59%

This gives us current seat count

MORENA-PVEM-PT        278
PAN-PRI-PRD               199
MC                               23

PES vote share still rising.  Most likely will not make it to the 3% threshold.

You're projecting 279 for Morena/PVEM/PT, 201 for PAN/PRI/PRD and 20 for MC, right?

I have 23 for MC.   7 district and 16 PR.

So there's a typo, because the current tally gives 7 for MC, but your projection gives them 4.

[Mike88]

What could this results mean for the 2024 elections? Obrador is barred from running again in 3 years, so MORENA has to nominate someone new, and MORENA could lose more ground. And is it expected that the Va por Mexico coalition will be repeated, again, in 3 years from now?