What are the chances PVEM reads the room and aligns with the PRIANDs?
I doubt PVEM will jump ship unless MORENA is no longer the ruling party. It seems PVEM is extremely calculating in making investments and then gaining from those investments. In San Luis Potosí, as pointed out, PVEM ran a PRD rebel and actually won the governorship. This seems to have taken place via various forms of vote buying. This was clearly organized and orchestrated by PVEM. PVEM bargained with MORENA to run the MORENA-PVEM-PT federal candidate in 5 out of the 7 seats in San Luis Potosí. PVEM won 4 of them and another one on its own. PVEM's Congressional vote share surged to 26.66% from 6%-7% in the 2009-2018 period. So the vote buying was not just for the governor race but also extended to the Congressional races where PVEM won 5 out of 7 seats. PVEM did something similar in Chiapas in 2012 which is still paying dividends. The idea of course is that PVEM will need resources to make these types of investments and will need to align with the ruling party to pull it off. So if PAN-PRI comes to power in 2024 I am sure PVEM will sign a different tune. But until then I suspect it will be aligned with MORENA.
PVEM is the New Komeito Party of Mexico. Change my mind.
