Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

[jaichind]

Mexico will have mid-term elections for the Lower House on July 6th

There will be governor elections in

Baja California
Baja California Sur
Campeche
Colima
Guerrero
Michoacán
Nuevo León
Querétaro
San Luis Potosí
Sonora

Most likely it will be a MORENA sweep despite the emerging and most likely viewed a opportunist PAN-PRD-PRD alliance

[jaichind]

https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/con-menos-estudios-y-mas-edad-el-mayor-apoyo-a-4t

Latest El Financiero poll has MORENA well ahead at 38.  While the sum of PAN(11), PRI(10) and PRD(3) does not exceed MORENA

https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/uploads/2021/02/03/8d09e4b85c1612417097.png

I suspect polls at this stage will skew toward the incumbent party but MORENA will also most likely have PVEM and PT as allies which will add to their vote share.


Breakdown by age shows MORENA very strong with older voters and Southern voters
https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/uploads/2021/02/03/f5496252601612417177.png
https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/uploads/2021/02/03/f5496252601612417177.png

[jaichind]

Massive Caller poll also has MORENA with a massive lead

[jaichind]

I’m surprised the Youth vote isn’t leaning toward Morena, why is that the case?

Because MORENA is the new PRI so the old guard PRI machine vote, especially in the South, has mostly gone over to MORENA.  PAN which always had some strength in the youth vote managed to retain that vote despite the ALMO/MORENA surge.

[jaichind]

I’m surprised the Youth vote isn’t leaning toward Morena, why is that the case?

Because MORENA is the new PRI so the old guard PRI machine vote, especially in the South, has mostly gone over to MORENA.  PAN which always had some strength in the youth vote managed to retain that vote despite the ALMO/MORENA surge.

How is PAN more popular with the youth? With the fact that Marijuana is legal under AMLO’s watch, I would think his popularity would improve.

I am not sure.  I think it is more about the fact that despite MORENA's platform being fairly socially progressive AMLO himself seems fairly socially conservative.  This helps MORENA capture the old socially conservative PRI vote in the South but does not present a socially progressive attraction for Northern youth to converge toward MORENA.

[jaichind]

But PRD also used to be stronger in the south. Is not only a PRI base thing but general leftism of the area.

Agreed.  To be fair in the 2000s the South was mostly a PRI-PRD swing area with the PRD growing only with defections from the old PRI Left.

The genius of AMLO is to be able to have it both ways on the cultural war issue.  He was able to retain the old Left base but also expand into the PRI vote in the South.  Having MORENA with a social liberal platform but ALMO himself being know as fairly socially conservative on some issues actually made the South a one party area for MORENA.

[jaichind]

My best guess on where the governor races will end up

FPM which is a MORENA splinter is in the fray in a few states cutting into the MORENA vote

Baja California: current MORENA: MORENA-PT-PVEM vs PAN-PRI-PRD vs MC vs PES vs FPM : Solid MORENA
Baja California Sur: current PAN: MORENA-PT-PVEM vs PAN-PRI-PRD: lean PAN
Campeche: current PRI: MORENA-PT vs PRI-PAN-PRD vs MC: lean MORENA
Colima: current PRI: MORENA-PANAL vs PRI-PAN-PRD vs MC vs PFM: lean MORENA
Guerrero: current PRI: MORENA vs PRI-PRD vs PAN: Solid MORENA
Michoacán: current PRD: MORENA-PT vs PRD-PAN-PRD vs FPM: lean MORENA
Nuevo León: current PRI rebel (El Bronco): MORENA-PT-PVEM vs PRI-PRD vs PAN vs MC: lean PRI
Querétaro: current PAN: MORENA vs PAN vs PRI vs PRD vs PVEM vs FPM: Solid PAN
San Luis Potosí: current PRI: MORENA-PT vs PAN-PRI-PRD vs PVEM vs FPM: lean PAN
Sonora: current PRI: MORENA-PT-PVEM vs PRI-PAN-PRD vs MC: lean MORENA

PAN-PRI-PRD forming alliances in various states plus PFM splitting MORENA is making a lot of states competitive even though MORENA should still have the edge in most of them.

[jaichind]

Can you tell us about what this splinter actually is?

The 3 new parties this year are

PES: Right wing social conservative party with its roots in Baja California.  Should be seen as a PAN splinter.   Was formed for 2015 elections but was deregistered in 2018 after it failed to cross 3% even though it successful fought the 2018 election as an MORENA/AMLO ally.  It re-registered and will try to get past the 3% threshold without an alliance with MORENA. 
 
FPM: A fusion of the some remnants of the deregistered PANAL party and some PRI defectors to MORENA.  Claims to be pro-AMLO ergo can be seen as MORENA splinter

RSP: Left progressive and environmentalist.    Rumors that that powerful teachers union are behind this party.  The last teachers union backed party PANAL was deregistered in 2018.

What is not on this list is ML which is a PAN splinter led by former PAN Prez Felipe Calderón and his wife Margaret Zavala who unsuccessfully sought the PAN Prez nomination in 2018.  ML was not approved to be registered party due to the claim that the source of their funding was murky.  Not clear why AMLO would do this though as ML will clearly split the PAN vote.

[jaichind]

Given this new, in my view cynical and opportunist, PAN-PRI-PRD alliance it would be useful to post this picture posted on twitter back in 2015-2016 on how PAN PRI PRD and MORENA view themselves and each other

 


PRI views itself as Benito Juárez 
PAN views itself as Madero while PRI views PAN as the French puppet Maximilian I
Most of the other pictures are pretty clear.

Given how PAN and PRI view each other and that they ancient enemies this alliance is truly opportunistic.   I think they should wait out AMLO moving on when the MORENA most likely implode instead of ruining their reputation this way.

[jaichind]

Sorry if this is a silly question, but what on earth has happened to the PRD?

Well, AMLO was a PRD rebel so MORENA mostly took away the entire PRD base.  Of course that is part of it.  The reason AMLO/MORENA was able to do this started in 2010 when PRD formed a bunch of alliances with PAN to stop the resurgent PRI.  These alliances stopped in 2012 because AMLO put a stop to it as he headed up the PRD ticket and once AMLO was being pushed out of PRD after 2012 they resumed.  Given the historical animosity between PAN and PRD, especially from the 2006 elections, these alliances with PAN which were temperately useful to stop the PRI in some states, led to the PRD base eventually defecting to AMLO/MORENA.  Now PRD is pretty much left with nothing and in the current environment playing the role of a satellite party for PAN or PRI depending on the state to help them catch some Leftist votes.

[jaichind]

It seems there are 5 more states that will have governor elections this year as part of a process to concentrate governor elections on Prez or midterm legislative elections years.

That will make it 15 governor elections this year.  The 5 I missed are

Chihuahua: current PAN: MORENA-PT vs PAN-PRD vs PRI vs MC vs FPM: Solid PAN
Nayarit : current PAN: MORENA-PT-PVEM vs PAN-PRI-PRD vs MC: Solid MORENA
Sinaloa: current PRI: MORENA vs PRI-PAN-PRD: vs MC: Solid MORENA
Tlaxcala: current PRI: MORENA-PT-PVEM vs PRI-PAN-PRD vs FPM: Solid MORENA
Zacatecas: current PRI: MORENA-PT-PVEM vs PRI-PAN-PRD: Solid MORENA

The trend is pretty clear. States in the old PRI heartland has the old PRI base are completely going over to MORENA.  In the North where PAN is stronger PAN sometimes with PRI and PRD support is beating back the MORENA surge.  

It is not clear what the election schedule for other states which are in theory due to have governor elections are going to be (Aguascalientes, Durango,  Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, and Tamaulipas.)  I guess they are going to try to shift governor elections toward just 2 years (Prez and Legislative midterms) in an iterative manner

[jaichind]

It seems the grand PAN-PRI-PRD alliance is mostly benefiting PAN in governor races.  In PAN strongholds what is left of the PRI and PRD vote is keeping PAN competitive against the MORENA surge while in PRI strongholds so much of the PRI vote have defected to MORENA plus PAN being weak there anyway the all the grand alliance can do is to keep it from being a massive MORENA landslide but could not prevent the wholesale loss of PRI governorships to MORENA this election cycle.

[jaichind]

Massive Caller poll has AMLO approval rating heading up

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/44a1f03f-5a2e-4dcc-9e94-fcf5e49be2e2

"Deaths surge in Mexico as pandemic extracts a heavy toll"

It seems excess death in Mexico is among the highest in the world.  AMLO levels of support still mostly holding up speaks to his political skills at crafting the narrative.

[jaichind]

Is the Félix Salgado Macedonio scandal expected to have a significant effect, either in Guerrero or nationwide?

I have no idea.  In Guerrero is till be MORENA vs PRI-PRD vs PAN.  PAN is not very strong here but will take some anti-MORENA votes plus most of the old PRI and PRD votes here have migrated to MORENA.  So most likely latest rape accusations against Félix Salgado Macedonio most of which are from years ago will blow over soon and MORENA will win in a landslide.  I have to assume these accusations might hurt MORENA in the more Northern urban areas.

[jaichind]

Mexico will have mid-term elections for the Lower House on July 6th

There will be governor elections in

Baja California
Baja California Sur
Campeche
Colima
Guerrero
Michoacán
Nuevo León
Querétaro
San Luis Potosí
Sonora

Most likely it will be a MORENA sweep despite the emerging and most likely viewed a opportunist PAN-PRD-PRD alliance

what party would right wing populists support?

I think the nationalist non-establishment vote for sure went MORENA but especially AMLO in 2018.  With MORENA taking over the PRI vote, especially in the South, I am not sure where that vote will go.  Nationalism in Mexico is more associated with the Left so I suspect they will still go MORENA.

[jaichind]

https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/rumbo-san-lazaro-morena-aventaja-alianza-opositora

Latest  El Universal/Buendia & Marquez poll has party support to be

MORENA   34
PAN         16
PRI           7
PVEM        5
PT            5
PRD          3
MC           1
PES          1  (Conservative Right, ex-MORENA ally)
PFM         1  (MORENA splinter)
RSP         1  (Leftist)

Where the two alliance blocs are fighting each other (MORENA-PT-PVEM vs PAN-PRI-PRD) it is

MORENA-PT-PVEM        43
PAN-PRI-PRD               29
MC                               4

It seems even in districts where MORENA is not running in an alliance it is ahead of PAN-PRI-PRD 38-24.

[jaichind]

El Universal poll for San Luis Potosí governor race has PVEM-PT ahead of both PAN-PRI-PRD and MORENA.

PVEM-PT         43
PAN-PRI-PRD   31
MORENA         24
MC                   2



In this state it seems PVEM is running an PRD rebel and have broken from MORENA who is running separately.  PAN is fairly strong in this state but according to this poll it is behind PVEM-PT

Massive Caller has it neck-to-neck between PAN-PRI-PRD and PVEM.  The poll seems to mislabel PT as an ally of MORENA when it is an ally of PVEM.
 

[jaichind]

PVEM aligning with Morena is hilarious.

We do not know who is going to win the election, we just know that PVEM will emerge as an ally of the winning party.  Sort of like KP in Japan except KP at least act as a Kingmaker where they dramatically increase the likelihood of its ally winning.  PVEM's base is small and it is not that clear how effective it is in transferring its vote to its ally.

[jaichind]

Exactly what brought this alliance to even be a possibility in San Luis Potosí? Why would PT not favor the MORENA candidate?

I have no idea. There must be some regional factors behind this.  The PVEM candidate having a PRD background must also play a role for PT which is on the Left to be able to sell to its base being allied with PVEM against MORENA.

[jaichind]

Massive Caller poll that with projection of vote shares of all 300 districts



MORENA   154
PVEM           6
PT               6
PAN           94
PRI            32
MC              8






I can only say the projection will be off.  Many MORENA candidates will run as PVEM or PT party label to get around the 8% rule (your seat share cannot be greater than 8% more than your vote share.)  There is no way MORENA will win as many as 154 seats but PVEM and PT only win 6 seats each.

[jaichind]

Is the Félix Salgado Macedonio scandal expected to have a significant effect, either in Guerrero or nationwide?

Massive Caller poll shows a drop in his lead but he is still ahead of PRI-PRD

[jaichind]

Wow, seems like the PRI isn't doing very well this days. I always wondered, does it have any appeal with the newer generations? I can imagine it having support among older ones, the ones who always voted for "the traditional ruling party", but for young people, who grew up in democracy, and with Peña Nieto as their only priista president, how does a party as ancient and discredited manage to get their support?

See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Mexican_protests also known as gasolinazo.  It was an attempt by PRI Prez Enrique Peña Nieto to liberalize the price of gasoline.  But that merely pushed whatever is left of the PRI youth vote away from PRI. 

Also the level of corruption among various PRI governors reached unprecedented levels during Nieto's rule also served to destroy the PRI levels of support. 

In the South a lot of the old PRI vote sent to MORENA and in the North they split between PAN and MORENA.

 

[jaichind]

Is the Félix Salgado Macedonio scandal expected to have a significant effect, either in Guerrero or nationwide?

It seems MORENA just removed him as Guerrero governor candidate

https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/morena-quita-candidatura-felix-salgado

[jaichind]

Eurasia Group came out with a research report on Mexico midterms saying that they expect MORENA to outperform.  The summery of their report says:

1) Polls show Lopez Obrador’s approval ratings have increased, despite sharp economic and health crises

2) Eurasia’s basecase remains Morena losing its qualified majority but winning more than 50% of the seats in congress, “but we are increasing the odds of the ruling coalition maintaining its qualified majorities to 30% from 20%”

3) Optimism on vaccine front is growing; Morena should benefit from economic recovery

4) “Finally, with only 93 days before the election, the opposition still has not presented a credible narrative that could help it capture some of the discontent against the administration”