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March 04, 2021, 04:42:49 AM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
  Mexico Legislative and Governor elections July 6th 2021
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Author Topic: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections July 6th 2021  (Read 1610 times)
TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #25 on: February 22, 2021, 01:44:54 PM »

Mexico will have mid-term elections for the Lower House on July 6th

There will be governor elections in

Baja California
Baja California Sur
Campeche
Colima
Guerrero
Michoacán
Nuevo León
Querétaro
San Luis Potosí
Sonora

Most likely it will be a MORENA sweep despite the emerging and most likely viewed a opportunist PAN-PRD-PRD alliance
what party would right wing populists support?

There is no "right-wing populist" tradition in Mexico because traditional Mexican nationalism derives its mythologies, symbols and rhetoric from the Mexican Revolution. This means that the base for this kind of politics is near non-existent.

Because the PRI was not particularly radical or socialist, there was no base for reactionary impulses and what came after the PRI was non-threatening to the middle class. AMLO is changing this to a degree but only somewhat.
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jaichind
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« Reply #26 on: February 22, 2021, 01:47:03 PM »

Mexico will have mid-term elections for the Lower House on July 6th

There will be governor elections in

Baja California
Baja California Sur
Campeche
Colima
Guerrero
Michoacán
Nuevo León
Querétaro
San Luis Potosí
Sonora

Most likely it will be a MORENA sweep despite the emerging and most likely viewed a opportunist PAN-PRD-PRD alliance
what party would right wing populists support?

I think the nationalist non-establishment vote for sure went MORENA but especially AMLO in 2018.  With MORENA taking over the PRI vote, especially in the South, I am not sure where that vote will go.  Nationalism in Mexico is more associated with the Left so I suspect they will still go MORENA.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #27 on: February 22, 2021, 01:49:54 PM »

Mexico will have mid-term elections for the Lower House on July 6th

There will be governor elections in

Baja California
Baja California Sur
Campeche
Colima
Guerrero
Michoacán
Nuevo León
Querétaro
San Luis Potosí
Sonora

Most likely it will be a MORENA sweep despite the emerging and most likely viewed a opportunist PAN-PRD-PRD alliance
what party would right wing populists support?

I think the nationalist non-establishment vote for sure went MORENA but especially AMLO in 2018.  With MORENA taking over the PRI vote, especially in the South, I am not sure where that vote will go.  Nationalism in Mexico is more associated with the Left so I suspect they will still go MORENA.

There's no basis whatsoever for right-wing nationalism in Mexico. There could be a basis for far-right politics but it'd have to find inspiration in Mexico's shortcomings as a country and use some other country as a reference point. Mexico's national heroes are all men of the left or liberal.
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jaichind
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« Reply #28 on: February 23, 2021, 10:13:48 AM »

https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/rumbo-san-lazaro-morena-aventaja-alianza-opositora

Latest  El Universal/Buendia & Marquez poll has party support to be

MORENA   34
PAN         16
PRI           7
PVEM        5
PT            5
PRD          3
MC           1
PES          1  (Conservative Right, ex-MORENA ally)
PFM         1  (MORENA splinter)
RSP         1  (Leftist)

Where the two alliance blocs are fighting each other (MORENA-PT-PVEM vs PAN-PRI-PRD) it is

MORENA-PT-PVEM        43
PAN-PRI-PRD               29
MC                               4

It seems even in districts where MORENA is not running in an alliance it is ahead of PAN-PRI-PRD 38-24.


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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #29 on: February 23, 2021, 06:52:18 PM »

PVEM aligning with Morena is hilarious.
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jaichind
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« Reply #30 on: February 23, 2021, 07:32:47 PM »

El Universal poll for San Luis Potosí governor race has PVEM-PT ahead of both PAN-PRI-PRD and MORENA.

PVEM-PT         43
PAN-PRI-PRD   31
MORENA         24
MC                   2



In this state it seems PVEM is running an PRD rebel and have broken from MORENA who is running separately.  PAN is fairly strong in this state but according to this poll it is behind PVEM-PT

Massive Caller has it neck-to-neck between PAN-PRI-PRD and PVEM.  The poll seems to mislabel PT as an ally of MORENA when it is an ally of PVEM.
 
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PSOL
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« Reply #31 on: February 23, 2021, 08:06:26 PM »

Exactly what brought this alliance to even be a possibility in San Luis Potosí? Why would PT not favor the MORENA candidate?
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kaoras
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« Reply #32 on: February 23, 2021, 08:20:02 PM »

Exactly what brought this alliance to even be a possibility in San Luis Potosí? Why would PT not favor the MORENA candidate?

I think you overrate the ideological consistency and principles of Mexican parties. I have absolutely no idea but I would guess it's a mix of wanting to be on the winning horse and shady deals between the local chapters?
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jaichind
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« Reply #33 on: February 23, 2021, 08:45:10 PM »


We do not know who is going to win the election, we just know that PVEM will emerge as an ally of the winning party.  Sort of like KP in Japan except KP at least act as a Kingmaker where they dramatically increase the likelihood of its ally winning.  PVEM's base is small and it is not that clear how effective it is in transferring its vote to its ally.
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jaichind
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« Reply #34 on: February 23, 2021, 08:46:22 PM »

Exactly what brought this alliance to even be a possibility in San Luis Potosí? Why would PT not favor the MORENA candidate?

I have no idea. There must be some regional factors behind this.  The PVEM candidate having a PRD background must also play a role for PT which is on the Left to be able to sell to its base being allied with PVEM against MORENA.
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jaichind
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« Reply #35 on: February 24, 2021, 05:23:39 PM »

Massive Caller poll that with projection of vote shares of all 300 districts



MORENA   154
PVEM           6
PT               6
PAN           94
PRI            32
MC              8






I can only say the projection will be off.  Many MORENA candidates will run as PVEM or PT party label to get around the 8% rule (your seat share cannot be greater than 8% more than your vote share.)  There is no way MORENA will win as many as 154 seats but PVEM and PT only win 6 seats each.
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jaichind
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« Reply #36 on: February 24, 2021, 09:45:27 PM »

Is the Félix Salgado Macedonio scandal expected to have a significant effect, either in Guerrero or nationwide?

Massive Caller poll shows a drop in his lead but he is still ahead of PRI-PRD
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philormus
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« Reply #37 on: February 24, 2021, 09:58:40 PM »

Wow, seems like the PRI isn't doing very well this days. I always wondered, does it have any appeal with the newer generations? I can imagine it having support among older ones, the ones who always voted for "the traditional ruling party", but for young people, who grew up in democracy, and with Peña Nieto as their only priista president, how does a party as ancient and discredited manage to get their support?
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jaichind
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« Reply #38 on: February 25, 2021, 09:04:33 AM »

Wow, seems like the PRI isn't doing very well this days. I always wondered, does it have any appeal with the newer generations? I can imagine it having support among older ones, the ones who always voted for "the traditional ruling party", but for young people, who grew up in democracy, and with Peña Nieto as their only priista president, how does a party as ancient and discredited manage to get their support?

See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Mexican_protests also known as gasolinazo.  It was an attempt by PRI Prez Enrique Peña Nieto to liberalize the price of gasoline.  But that merely pushed whatever is left of the PRI youth vote away from PRI. 

Also the level of corruption among various PRI governors reached unprecedented levels during Nieto's rule also served to destroy the PRI levels of support. 

In the South a lot of the old PRI vote sent to MORENA and in the North they split between PAN and MORENA.

 
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jaichind
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« Reply #39 on: February 27, 2021, 11:58:02 AM »

Is the Félix Salgado Macedonio scandal expected to have a significant effect, either in Guerrero or nationwide?

It seems MORENA just removed him as Guerrero governor candidate

https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/morena-quita-candidatura-felix-salgado
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Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce
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« Reply #40 on: February 27, 2021, 03:45:19 PM »

Is the Félix Salgado Macedonio scandal expected to have a significant effect, either in Guerrero or nationwide?

It seems MORENA just removed him as Guerrero governor candidate

https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/morena-quita-candidatura-felix-salgado


Thank God. Sucks that this was most likely for political expedience, but good that it’s happening.
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