Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

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Guerrero

Guerrero is one of the poorest states in Mexico and has a long history of nefarious ties between politics and the criminal underworld, as made clear to the world by the tragic events of Ayotzinapa/Iguala in 2014 (although the truth about Iguala likely goes much higher and doesn’t just involve criminal local politicians…).

The first non-priista governor of Guerrero was Zeferino Torreblanca (PRD), elected in 2005. However, the 1999 election – in which the PRI officially defeated the PRD’s candidate, one Félix Salgado Macedonio by less than 2%, was marred by allegations of fraud by Salgado, who undertook a week-long trek from Chilpancingo to Mexico City to pressure the courts to overturn the election, and then staged an ‘indefinite civil resistance’ when the courts did not. Salgado, elected to Congress in 2000, became mayor of Acapulco in 2005. Torreblanca and Salgado’s administrations were disappointing – violence and kidnappings increased significantly in the coastal city and across the state, and the governor was investigated for budgetary irregularities.

In 2011, the PRD’s candidate was Ángel Aguirre – a former interim governor (1996-1999), accused by Salgado and AMLO at the time of being the operator of the fraud in 1999 – who had quit the PRI after failing to win its nomination. Aguirre was elected with 55.6%.
Aguirre’s administration was catastrophic, characterized by an increase in violence, criminal narco-politics, corruption and his inefficiency in handling two natural disasters in 2013, and culminated with the disappearance of the Ayotzinapa students. Aguirre was forced to resign a month after the events in Iguala. Aguirre is notably accused of having known and covered up Iguala mayor José Luis Abarca’s narco ties.

In 2015, the PRI returned to power, with the victory of Héctor Astudillo Flores, who had been defeated by Torreblanca ten years earlier.

AMLO won by a large margin 2018 – with 63% of the vote. Morena won 8 of the state’s 9 single-member districts in the Chamber of Deputies, and Félix Salgado/Nestora Salgado senatorial ticket got 48% of the vote. Morena also won a majority in the state congress, although the PRI and PRD retained the most municipalities.

A large field of prominent candidates sought Morena’s nomination – including Félix Salgado, Nestora Salgado, Adela Román (mayor of Acapulco since 2018), Pablo Amílcar Sandoval (Morena gubernatorial candidate in 2015, former superdelegate and brother of Irma Eréndira, the federal secretary of public administration), Beatriz Mojica (PRD gubernatorial candidate in 2015 and former general secretary of the PRD) and Luis Walton Aburto (former mayor of Acapulco 2012-2015 and MC gubernatorial candidate in 2015). Félix Salgado insisted that the candidacy was his, and threatened Morena by actively looking elsewhere – to the PT and the MC. He also accused the leader of Morena, Mario Delgado, of favouritism towards Pablo Amílcar.

Salgado has a long history of colourful scandals and controversies – he once defined himself as a “womanizer, partygoer, player and drunk”, he fought with cops while drunk and released several folk music covers (most notably a 2012 cumbia in AMLO’s honour).

In December 2020, Félix Salgado was announced as Morena’s candidate. He was already facing accusations of sexual abuse, first revealed in November in Milenio. More accusations followed, weakening his candidacy as more and more people – including within Morena – calling for the cancellation of his candidacy. While in February 2021 Morena’s ethics commission considered the accusations against him to be unfounded, it also suspended his candidacy and reopened the selection process – although with Félix Salgado still participating.

Félix Salgado’s candidacy was reconfirmed in this new selection process in March, in which most original candidates participated again – with the notable exception of Pablo Amílcar. Throughout this entire process, Salgado had AMLO’s unwavering support. AMLO repeatedly claimed that the accusations against Salgado were part of a smear campaign by the ‘conservatives’ and the media, and even attacked feminists by saying that phrases like “breaking the patriarchy” were ‘imported’. While Salgado’s candidacy was under fire from all sides, he violently threatened that without him on the ballot there would no election in Guerrero and that it would be the INE’s last election.

The TEPJF confirmed the INE’s revocation of his candidacy (see previous posts). After a ‘poll’, Morena nominated his daughter Evelyn Salgado as their gubernatorial candidate. As previously noted, her husband is the son of Joaquín Alonso Piedra 'El Abulón' who was arrested in 2016 suspected of being a financial operator for the Beltrán Leyva cartel.

The PT and PVEM broke the coalition with Morena after the Salgado scandal. Instead, they nominated Pedro Segura Valladares, a wealthy rancher from Teloloapan with possible ties to the Familia Michoacana cartel.

The PRI and PRD – traditional rivals for over 20 years – have now formed a coalition to defeat Morena. The coalition’s candidate is Mario Moreno Arcos (PRI), former secretary of social development (2018-2020), two-time mayor of Chilpancingo (2006-2008, 2012-2015) and former federal deputy (2003-2006, 2009-2012). Moreno’s candidacy is pushed by former governor (1999-2005) and incumbent federal deputy René Juárez and former governor Ángel Aguirre (2011-2014); he defeated senator Manuel Añorve Baños, the PRI’s 2011 candidate, who had been backed by incumbent governor Astudillo and former governor Rubén Figueroa (1992-1996). Astudillo was compensated by having several of his allies, including his son, placed as candidates for the state congress.

Moreno is the cousin of the spokesperson of ‘Los Tlacos’, a criminal paramilitary group, and of José Carlos ‘La Calentura’ Moreno Flores, arrested in 2011 and accused of El Chapo’s operator in Guerrero. In 2014, Moreno was accused by the head of the local chamber of commerce of providing protection to the criminal group ‘Los Rojos’. Shortly thereafter, the businessman was the victim of an attack in which his daughter-in-law was killed.

The PAN, always very weak in the state, is running alone with Irma Garzón. The MC’s candidate is Ruth Zavaleta, former federal deputy (2006-2009, 2012-2015). Zavaleta is running as a feminist candidate, pledging to break the ‘patriarchal pact’.

There have been rumours that the PAN and MC’s leaderships have considered withdrawing to support Mario Moreno, to defeat Salgado. There also were rumours that Pablo Amílcar – now Morena’s congressional candidate in the 4th district – has negotiated with governor Astudillo to divide Salgado’s vote. Amílcar has been conspicuously absent from the Salgado father and daughter campaign. On the other hand, Evelyn Salgado has welcomed the support of Astudillo’s cousin and PRI state deputy Jorge Salgado Parra (mad that he didn’t get the PRI mayoral nomination in Chilpancingo)

FxM’s candidate is Manuel Negrete, a former footballer and until recently mayor of Coyoacán in CDMX (2018-2021), elected for the PRD. In Coyoacán, Negrete was accused of corruption and incompetence.

Salgado – father and now daughter – have always been the favourites to win. Félix Salgado’s polling numbers seem to have been largely unaffected by the sexual abuse and rape accusations. Evelyn Salgado has retained a consistent advantage over Moreno. However, the last poll by El Financiero, conducted in mid-April, showed Morena’s lead over the PRI down to just 4 points, compared to a 15-point lead in March.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Incredible how anyone is talking about the governor race in Nuevo Leon, the second most important state in México, one of the favorites in polls (Samuel Garcia) is talking about getting out of the agreement with the federal government to stop sending money and having full independence of their money

Morena winning has spurned the decentralization campaign again.

Nuevo Leon has to be the state where Morena and AMLO are the most unpopular compared to other state

What about Guanajuato?

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

Incredible how anyone is talking about the governor race in Nuevo Leon, the second most important state in México, one of the favorites in polls (Samuel Garcia) is talking about getting out of the agreement with the federal government to stop sending money and having full independence of their money

Morena winning has spurned the decentralization campaign again.

Nuevo Leon has to be the state where Morena and AMLO are the most unpopular compared to other state

What about Guanajuato?

Is between both states and Queretaro imo

[jaichind]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9601471/Mexico-says-FBI-investigating-governors-links-money-laundering.html

"Mexico President López Obrador says the FBI is investigating border town governor's ties to money laundering as a federal judge signs off on arrest warrant"

The current Tamaulipas governor is from PAN and was elected in 2016 as the first non-PRI governor of Tamaulipas since the rise of PR as the dominate party of Mexico in the 1930s.

[jaichind]

JPM did a simulation of the 2021 legislative elections can came up with

MORENA-PVEM-PT    268
PAN-PRI-PRD           200
Others                      32 (I assume most of this will be MC)

[jaichind]

Going by public polling it seems the governor races two weeks out are

Baja California: current MORENA: Solid MORENA-PT-PVEM
Baja California Sur: current PAN: lean PAN-PRI-PRD over MORENA-PT
Campeche: current PRI: three way tossup between MORENA-PT, PRI-PAN-PRD and MC
Chihuahua: current PAN: tossup between MORENA-PT and PAN-PRD
Colima: current PRI: solid MORENA-PANAL
Guerrero: current PRI: solid MORENA
Michoacán: current PRD: tossup between MORENA-PT and PRD-PAN-PRD
Nayarit : current PAN: Solid MORENA-PT-PVEM
Nuevo León: current PRI rebel (El Bronco): tossup between MORENA-PT-PVEM and PRI-PRD
Querétaro: current PAN: Solid PAN
San Luis Potosí: current PRI: lean PAN-PRI-PRD over MORENA and PVEM-PT
Sinaloa: current PRI: lean MORENA over PRI-PAN-PRD
Sonora: current PRI: lean MORENA-PT-PVEM over PRI-PAN-PRD
Tlaxcala: current PRI: lean MORENA-PT-PVEM over PRI-PAN-PRD
Zacatecas: current PRI: tossup between MORENA-PT-PVEM vs PRI-PAN-PRD

It seems in most races the MORENA margins have narrowed from a few months ago as AMLO's ratings have declined.  MORENA is ahead in most races but the margin of error is a lot lower now and if this momentum continues AMLO might get a nasty surprise election night.

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Nuevo León: current PRI rebel (El Bronco): tossup between MORENA-PT-PVEM and PRI-PRD

In what world? Clara Luz Flores is very far behind in every poll, ever since late March, and the race very clearly is between Adrián de la Garza and Samuel García -- the latter may have an edge, although the number of polls by less reputable pollsters giving wildly different numbers makes it all quite messy. If the PAN does manage to finish strong, as some polls could suggest, after having been counted for dead for the entire campaign, there's even a chance that Clara Luz Flores would be pushed into fourth place.

[jaichind]

Nuevo León: current PRI rebel (El Bronco): tossup between MORENA-PT-PVEM and PRI-PRD

In what world? Clara Luz Flores is very far behind in every poll, ever since late March, and the race very clearly is between Adrián de la Garza and Samuel García -- the latter may have an edge, although the number of polls by less reputable pollsters giving wildly different numbers makes it all quite messy. If the PAN does manage to finish strong, as some polls could suggest, after having been counted for dead for the entire campaign, there's even a chance that Clara Luz Flores would be pushed into fourth place.

Oops, typo by me.  I meant tossup between PRI-PRD and MC.   Thanks for catching this.

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Michoacán

Michoacán is the historic stronghold and cradle of the PRD – Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, legendary leader of the modern Mexican left, was governor of Michoacán between 1980 and 1986.

The PRD, however, did not actually win the governorship until 2001. The 1992 and 1995 gubernatorial elections, particularly the former, were marred by allegations of fraud and followed by post-electoral mobilizations and violence by the PRD. In 1992, high-level negotiations between the local PRD and the PRI regime broke down and Carlos Salinas was clearly unwilling to extend the same ‘courtesies’ to the PRD as he was to the PAN. The only change was that the priista governor-elect in 1992 was forced to resign amidst perredista civil disobedience but was replaced with another PRI hardliner and authorities stepped in to restore ‘order’.

The PRD finally won Michoacán in 2001 with the victory of Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas’ son, Lázaro Cárdenas Batel. The PRD retained control in 2007, with Leonel Godoy. In 2011, the PRI regained the state with the victory of Fausto Vallejo.

For over 15 years, Michoacán has suffered from violence and failed governance. It was where, in December 2006, president-elect Calderón – a native of Michoacán – launched a military operation against drug cartels, marking the beginning of the bloody and failed drug war. In 2009, Calderón’s government arrested about three dozen state and local officials including 11 mayors, accused of ties to the Familia Michoacana cartel, then the dominant criminal group in the state. However, within two years, all of the accused in the Michoacanazo were released and acquitted. To this day, there are two versions of the event – Calderón claims it was proof of widespread impunity and corruption in the judicial system, while PRD governor Godoy argues it was a political operation aimed at discrediting the PRD and favouring Calderón’s sister, Luisa María Calderón in the 2011 election.

Fausto Vallejo, the priista governor elected in 2011, was a disaster: facing health problems, he asked for three leaves before definitely resigning in June 2014. The interim governor in 2013, Jesús Reyna, was later arrested, accused of ties to the Knights Templar cartel, but was released in 2018 when prosecutors were unable to prove his guilt. Vallejo’s son Rodrigo ‘El Gerber’ was arrested in 2014 and rearrested in 2019, accused of ties to Servando Gómez ‘La Tuta’, leader of the Knights Templar (arrested in 2015). As violence spread, local self-defence vigilante groups (autodefensas) emerged, led by local businessmen, rival criminals and exasperated civilians. In 2014, Peña Nieto appointed Alfredo Castillo, ‘the viceroy’, as some sort of special envoy who served as de facto governor.

The PRD’s Silvano Aureoles, former senator and federal deputy, was elected governor in 2015 with 36.2% against 27.8% for the PRI and 23.8% for the PAN (once again Calderón’s sister). Despite promises to the contrary, Aureoles has had little success in turning the tide of violence: in 2020, homicide rates reached 50, a record high. Uruapan, the state’s second-largest city, is one of the most violent cities in Mexico now, ravaged by fighting between the CJNG and two local groups, Los Viagras and the Cartel del Abuelo (whose leader began by leading an autodefensa group).

Like elsewhere, the PRD has been decimated and lost most of its traditional leaders – Cárdenas Batel, Godoy and Arias have all joined Morena. In 2018, AMLO won 50% of the vote, against 22.4% for Anaya and 17% for Meade (who had received Aureoles’ endorsement).

Aureoles is the PRD’s last standing governor. He is a member of the Federalist Alliance, the grouping of opposition governors, and has often butted heads with AMLO.

Morena-PT’s initial candidate, nominated in December 2020, was Raúl Morón, mayor of Morelia (2018-2021), former PRD senator (2012-2018) and former leader of the state PRD in the early 2000s. Morón is a teacher and was the leader of the local section of the teacher’s union, the SNTE, in the mid-1990s. In March, his candidacy was revoked by the INE for not reporting pre-campaign expenses, and it was upheld on appeal by the TEPJF in April.

Morón’s case was overshadowed by the more controversial case of Félix Salgado in Guerrero. Morón’s reaction was also far more measured than Salgado’s – while regretting the INE’s decision as excessive, arbitrary and illegal he called on supporters to protest peacefully without violence.

He was replaced by state deputy Alfredo Ramírez Bedolla, who had previously worked under former governors Cárdenas Batel and Godoy. Ironically, Ramírez’s mayoral candidacy in Morelia was also cancelled and sanctioned by the INE in March, again for not reporting pre-campaign expenses.

As a bizarre sidenote, Morena’s mayoral candidacy in Huetamo appears on the DEA’s list of most wanted fugitives and is described as ‘armed and dangerous’. He is the brother of the incumbent Morena mayor of Zirándaro (Guerrero).

Morena senator Cristóbal Arias is running for FxM (Force for Mexico), the new party controlled by former senator Pedro Haces. Cristóbal Arias was the PRD gubernatorial candidate in 1992 and 1995, he also served as federal deputy (1982-1985, 1991-1994) and senator (1988-1991, 1994-2000, 2018-2021). He was initially perceived as the favourite to win Morena’s nomination but lost to Morón. He questioned the transparency of the selection process and claimed that Morón was imposed by the traditional ‘mafia of power’ in Michoacán – namely former governors Cárdenas Batel (now coordinator of advisors in the presidential office) and Godoy (now congressional candidate in the 1st district). He looked to the PT, PVEM and RSP before getting FxM’s support for his dissident candidacy.

Morón’s team saw Arias’ hand in his disqualification by the INE because one of the INE councillors is the ex-husband of Arias’ sister, although they divorced in 2003.

The PRD has a particular interest in retaining Michoacán, its last standing holdout. As elsewhere, this pushed the PRD to ally with its lifelong enemy, the PRI, as well as with the PAN. The PRD-PRI-PAN’s candidate is Carlos Herrera Tello, former state interior secretary who is seen as Silvano Aureoles’ ‘heir’. Aureoles’ brother, senator Antonio García Conejo (PRD), withdrew his candidacy in December 2020 and rallied around Herrera. The PAN was originally reticent to ally with the PRD and PRI, and the PAN’s leader, Marko Cortés, who is from Michoacán and ran for mayor of Morelia in 2011 and 2012, was exploring a gubernatorial candidacy in his home state. However, very poor polling numbers forced him to change his plans and accept a coalition with the PRD and PRI.

Hipólito Mora, one of the famous founders of the autodefensas in Michoacán in 2013, is running for the PES. Mora was a lemon producer from La Ruana, a locality in the violent Tierra Caliente region. In March 2014, he was arrested for the murder of two vigilantes from a rival group but released two months later for lack of evidence. He applied to join a newly-formed, legal ‘rural self-defence group’ spearheaded by the government in 2014, but turned to electoral politics in 2015. He ran unsuccessfully for federal deputy in the 12th district for the MC in 2015 and quit the party in 2018 when they didn’t give him a candidacy.

The other original leader of the self-defences in Michoacán was José Manuel Mireles, who died from COVID-19 last November. His young widow (22) – they started going out when she was still a minor – Estephania Valdés – is running for state deputy with Morena, presenting herself as “Mireles’ widow”. She was insulted by Mireles’ eldest son during a campaign event.

The other candidates are Juan Antonio Magaña (PVEM), Abraham Sánchez Martínez (RSP) and former PAN mayor of Pátzcuaro Mercedes Calderón (MC). There have been rumours that RSP, the latest franchise party controlled by Elba Esther Gordillo, has considered withdrawing its candidate to help out Morena.

Morena remains the favourite to win, leading in nearly every poll. However, the race has tightened up after Morón’s disqualification. A poll by El Financiero in April showed a dead heat – Morena ahead of Herrera (PRD) by only one point, down from a five-point lead in March.

[jaichind]

Bradesco Securities ratings of governor races

Baja California: MORENA
Baja California Sur: PAN
Campeche: Tossup (lean MC over PRI-PAN-PRD, MORENA being pushed to third)
Chihuahua: PAN
Colima: MORENA
Guerrero: MORENA
Michoacán: tossup (lean MORENA over PRD-PRI-PAN)
Nayarit : MORENA
Nuevo León: tossup (lean MC over PRI-PRD)
Querétaro: PAN
San Luis Potosí: tossup (between PAN-PRI-PRD and PVEM)
Sinaloa: tossup (lean MORENA over PRI-PAN-PRD)
Sonora: tossup (between MORENA and PRI-PAN-PRD, MC dropping out to back PRI-PAN-PRD decisive)
Tlaxcala: MORENA
Zacatecas: MORENA

MC could win two governorships

[jaichind]

El Universal poll has MORENA alliance with landslide victory

https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/elecciones/morena-y-aliados-12-curules-de-mayoria-calificada-en-san-lazaro

Levels of support (filtering out undecided)

MORENA         41
PVEM               7
PT                   4
PAN               16
PRI                15
PRD                3
MC                 8
PES                2.6
PFM               2.8

From which they project in terms of seats

MORENA        228
PVEM              49
PT                  45
PAN                79
PRI                 62
PRD                20
MC                 16

Which would imply that MORENA would gain 37 seats from 2018 results.

I suspect that the undecideds will break against MORENA so these numbers seem too good for MORENA.  Also given the 8% rule I do not know how MORENA will get to 228 seats unless the vast majority of MORENA-PVEM-PT alliance candidates are designated as PVEM or PT candidates which could very well be the case.

[xelas81]

Just to confirm parties in Mexico still gets dissolved when they get less than 3% of the votes?
If so, there is a possibility that PRD fall under the threshold and gets dissolved.

[jaichind]

Just to confirm parties in Mexico still gets dissolved when they get less than 3% of the votes?
If so, there is a possibility that PRD fall under the threshold and gets dissolved.

Yes.  I believe that this rule is still in place.

[JM1295]

I'm curious to see how successful MORENA is with their outreach to the Mexican underclass that hasn't been involved in politics for years now, if at all. The polls could be underestimating them if MORENA's outreach is that good and impressive. Also, while a lot of governor races have become more competitive for MORENA, its interesting that the map has started opening up for MORENA again polling quite well in Chihuahua and Campeche now. I still expect them to win 7-8 governor races and see Chihuahua. Campeche, Zacatecas, and Michoacan as the true toss-ups.

[jaichind]

El País poll from a couple of weeks ago on Legislative race also has MORENA-PT-PVEM bloc with an easy majority but also some demographic breakdown





It seems unlike 2018 the youth vote has shifted to PAN but the older vote have shifted toward MORENA.  MORENA also have a relative edge with men and PAN have a relative edge with women.

[jaichind]

Reforma poll has AMLO bloc keeping its majority although most likely to lose seats from the 306 it got in 2018.  This poll has PT PVEM and PRD all at risk of falling below 3% which I am sure is adding to the risk of the AMLO block will lose seats.

[jaichind]

JP Morgan last election simulator still has the AMLO bloc losing a lot of seats

MORENA-PVEM-PT   259
PAN-PRI-PRD          203
Rest (mostly MC)      38

if true this would be a big blow to AMLO who most likely was hoping to get to 335 or 2/3 majority from 306 that his bloc won in 2018.

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Nayarit

The small state of Nayarit, sandwiched between Jalisco and Sinaloa, has been governed by non-PRI governors twice – between 1999 and 2005, and since 2017. Antonio Echevarría Domínguez was the state’s first non-priista governor, elected in 1999 with one of the earliest PAN-PRD coalitions. The PRI regained the state in 2005 and retained it in 2011. In 2017, Antonio Echevarría García (PAN) was elected, again with a PAN-PRD-PT alliance. He is the son of former governor Echevarría Domínguez and PAN senator Martha Elena García (who was the PAN’s 2011 gubernatorial candidate).

Under PRI governor Roberto Sandoval (2011-2017), Nayarit – one of Mexico’s main opium-growing regions and hub for the heroin trade – became a narco state. Sandoval built a carefully crafted cowboy image, undertook eye-catching white elephant projects (a huge arena which later flooded, water capture tanks never connected to the actual water supply, cowboy hat-shaped sports arena) and spent a fortune on catchy promotional videos – which are thankfully still available on YouTube, like Yo con el PRI, a 7-minute local remake of Marc Antony’s Vivir mi Vida.

More nefariously, Sandoval used his office to amass huge landholdings (he himself boasted that he went from 2 horses to 800 pure-bred horses and bought a ‘very expensive’ 17 ha ranch) and closely collaborated with drug traffickers. His attorney general, Edgar Veytia “El Diablo”, arrested in San Diego on drug trafficking charges in 2017, handed over control of the state to the cartels. It worked, because Nayarit had the lowest homicide rates (allegedly) at the time. Veytia consolidated an alliance with Juan Francisco Patrón Sánchez ‘H-2’, one of the leaders of the Beltrán Leyva cartel, and Los Zetas, before betraying H-2 in early 2017 and allying with the CJNG.

The state police helped the cartels locate and assassinate their rivals, to carry out some of their dirty work (murder, kidnapping), released them from jail quickly when they were detained, and protected them from enemies and federal operations. In 2013, for example, the Nayarit police spoiled a Navy operation to capture Héctor Beltrán Levya and H-2.

Veytia and Sandoval grew extremely rich from this partnership and other criminal activities. Veytia is accused of kidnapping (for ransom), imprisoning, extorting, and murdering those who went against him, as well as seizing large swathes of private and communal land (some of which was given to the governor). Veytia also began directly trafficking drugs himself: he operated heroin processing laboratories in the mountains and is said to have used his bus franchises to smuggle drugs. More explosively, General Salvador Cienfuegos – Secretary of National Defence (2012-2018) under Peña Nieto – was arrested in the US in October 2020, accused of having worked with the H-2 cartel. Cienfuegos’ arrest infuriated AMLO, and the US dropped charges and sent him back to Mexico in November 2020. In Mexico, Cienfuegos was cleared in January 2021, with AMLO claiming that the charges against him were politically motivated. 

Veytia pleaded guilty and was sentenced to 20 years’ imprisonment by a US federal court in September 2019. Reports of Sandoval’s criminality spread after he left office, and both federal and state prosecutors opened investigations into Sandoval in 2017, and his assets were frozen. In 2019, the US Treasury Department sanctioned Sandoval, his wife and two adult children under the Global Magnitsky sanctions. In February 2020, the US State Department publicly designated Sandoval due to “involvement in significant corruption”, a decision which banned him and his family from going to the United States. Facing arrest warrants, Sandoval is currently a fugitive.

Veytia’s arrest and accusations against Sandoval weakened the PRI, and it was badly defeated in 2017. Antonio Echevarría García (PAN-PRD-PT) was elected governor with 38.6% against 26.3% for the PRI, and 12.5% for crazy person Hilario Ramírez ‘Layín’ (mayor of San Blas famous for saying he “stole a little bit”, lifting women’s skirts, throwing money at crowds and only buttoning his shirt halfway). In 2018, AMLO won 65% of the vote in Nayarit.

The Morena-PT-PVEM-PANAL’s candidate is former senator Miguel Ángel Navarro Quintero, a veteran politician who has served as federal deputy (1997-2000, 2006-2008) and senator (2000-2006, 2018-2020). He was the PRD’s gubernatorial candidate in 2005, after quitting the PRI, and finished a close second with 42%. He was the PRD’s mayoral candidate in Tepic in 2008, losing to Sandoval, and Morena’s gubernatorial candidate in 2017, finishing fourth with 12.6%.

Navarro Quintero is accused of having received over 1 million pesos in bribes from Veytia during his 2017 gubernatorial campaign. Since 2018, several members of Morena had denounced Navarro Quintero’s ties to Veytia.

Federal deputy Geraldine Ponce, a former beauty queen, is Morena’s candidate in Tepic. Ponce is famous for a viral, supposedly ‘awkward moment’ with AMLO in an airport in 2019 – while she was talking to the president, his wife sat down next to him, as if to stop Ponce from continuing to talk with AMLO.

The opposition PAN-PRI-PRD’s candidate is former senator Gloria Núñez (PAN). Núñez, also a former priista until 2012, served as state deputy, federal deputy (2012-2015), mayor of Compostela (2017-2018) and senator (2018-2021).

Ignacio ‘Nacho’ Flores, mayor of La Yesca, is the MC’s candidate. There are five other minor candidates.

Navarro Quintero is the runaway favourite. He’s led by large margins in every single poll. A poll in April in El Financiero showed him leading by 8 points (40-32) against Núñez, with Flores in third with 14%; in their last poll in March, the 4T’s candidate was leading by 22 points. However, polls by other pollsters have shown Navarro Quintero retaining a much wider lead over Núñez and Flores.

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Nuevo León

With a population of 5.78 million and home to Mexico’s second-largest metropolitan area (the Monterrey metro with 5.34 million people), Nuevo León is the most populous state holding a gubernatorial election this year. Nuevo León/Monterrey is also the economic powerhouse of northern Mexico, with a famously strong entrepreneurial culture, and Nuevo León is the third largest economy in Mexico, contributing to 7.8% of the national GDP in 2019. With its strong economy, Nuevo León is one of the wealthiest states in Mexico – it had the lowest poverty rate in 2018 (14.5%).

As elsewhere in northern Mexico, the PAN enjoyed early success – often blunted by priista fraud – in Nuevo León in the 1980s and 1990s. The PAN was allowed to win Monterrey in 1994, and the PRI lost the governorship to the PAN in 1997. However, the PAN lost the state after just one term, in 2003. The PRI held the state between 2003 and 2015.

Nuevo León made headlines in 2015 with the victory of independent candidate Jaime Rodríguez Calderón ‘El Bronco’ in the governor’s race. El Bronco had been the priista mayor of García and quit the party in 2014 to run as an independent. With strong support in the Monterrey metropolitan area, El Bronco won by a landslide with 48.8% against 23.9% for the PRI and 22.3% for the PAN. He became the first (and to date only) independent state governor.

Unfortunately, El Bronco invested more time and energy into promoting his image, polishing his constructed persona (flamboyant cowboy) and his 2018 presidential aspirations. He promised little but seems to have achieved little and has not been very different from the partisan politicians he criticized. He also alienated a lot of people by abandoning his job for six months in 2018 to win 5.2% in the presidential election. His presidential campaign will mostly be remembered for proposing to literally chop people’s hands off, memes and clownish debate performances.

Nuevo León was one of AMLO’s weakest states – he won, but with only 34.3%, against 32.3% for Anaya, 16.5% for El Bronco and 14.5% for Meade. Morena-PT-PES won 6 of the state’s single-member federal districts, against 5 for the PAN and one for the PRI. In the senatorial race, the MC’s ticket won 24.2% against 23.5% for the PAN, 21.7% for Morena and 15.2% for the PRI.

A fairly conservative state, AMLO’s popularity in Nuevo León is unsurprisingly significantly below average and Morena continues to struggle in the state. Nevertheless, after confrontations between AMLO and El Bronco (a founding member of the Federalist Alliance), NL is a key target for the president and the presidential palace has taken, quite controversially, a direct interest in the matter.

The Morena-PT-PVEM-PANAL’s candidate is Clara Luz Flores, former PRI mayor of General Escobedo (2009-2012, 2015-2020), the fourth largest municipality of the Monterrey metro. Flores, a priista for 22 years, quit the PRI in February 2020 and moved closer to Morena as she began building her gubernatorial bid. She formally announced her gubernatorial candidacy with Morena in November 2020, with the president’s blessing (after seeing the polls showing her as the favourite) and was anointed as candidate a month later.

One of her weaknesses is her husband, Abel Guerra, former priista mayor of Escobedo (1991-1994, 1997-2000), federal deputy (2000-2002, 2012-2015) and secretary of public works under PRI governor José Natividad González (2003-2006). He has been the cacique of Escobedo for 3 decades (he was filmed saying “in Escobedo people vote for Clara because she’s my wife”) and is mixed up in murky business – notably influence peddling in big real estate developments. He is also close to El Bronco.

Morena considered several potential candidates, most notably then-federal deputy Tatiana Clouthier – the daughter of famous 1988 panista presidential candidate Manuel Clouthier who had been coordinator of AMLO’s 2018 campaign. However, Clouthier was poorly received by the business sector, and her candidacy was dropped in favour of Flores, who is more acceptable to the business elites.

In their bid to win, Morena has welcomed both priistas and panistas. Flores has been endorsed by PRI politicians like federal deputy Pedro Pablo Treviño, Héctor Gutiérrez (former federal deputy) and Felipe Enríquez (former federal deputy and ambassador to Uruguay). Several of the coalition’s mayoral candidates in the Monterrey metro area are former priistas.

PAN senator Víctor Fuentes, after losing the PAN nomination, quit the PAN – claiming it was colluding with El Bronco (Mauricio González, former caretaker governor in 2018 and secretary general of government under El Bronco is now a PAN candidate for federal deputy) – and became the mayoral candidate in Monterrey, despite being very critical of AMLO in the past. However, Fuentes never took off in the polls and his strategy to capture votes from the PRI didn’t work. He dropped out of the election in May and made his way back to the PAN. Felipe de Jesús Cantú, former PAN mayor of Monterrey (2000-2003), also quit the PAN after nearly 40 years and recently replaced Fuentes as the mayoral candidate in Monterrey. Three years ago, Cantú had been the PAN’s mayoral candidate in Monterrey.

Flores has attempted to appear as a moderate during the campaign, often seeking to reassure the private sector by saying that the government should not interfere so that they can invest and reactivate the economy.

The PRI-PRD’s candidate is the former mayor of Monterrey Adrián de la Garza (2015-2018, 2019-2020). Like his father before him in the 1970s, de la Garza served as state attorney general (2011-2015) under PRI governor Rodrigo Medina, who is currently accused of tax evasion and money laundering. As attorney general, the police was accused of torture and forced disappearance, and in 2016 a Spanish police report linked de la Garza, among other politicians, to Los Zetas, through contacts with ‘El Mono’ Muñoz. Despite these controversies, the law-and-order discourse and promises of ‘putting Nuevo León in order’ are at the core of his campaign.

De la Garza was elected mayor of Monterrey in 2015 and sought reelection in 2018. He narrowly lost, by just under 1%, the initial 2018 election, but the results were controversially reversed by the state electoral court (amidst accusations of conflict of interest involving some of the judges) before the TEPJF annulled the election and ordered a rerun. De la Garza won the rerun second election in December 2018 by 1.9%. As mayor, de la Garza has improved the city’s credit rating and reduced the debt, but also faced accusations of irregularities in urban development, corruption and lack of transparency. During the campaign, de la Garza has tried to distance himself from Medina and has gained the support of other PRI factions opposed to Medina, like Ildefonso Guajardo (Secretary of Economy under EPN and Mexican negotiator for the USMCA) and other former PRI governors.

Adrián de la Garza and the PRI’s mayoral candidate in Monterrey, Francisco Cienfuegos – state deputy (2012-2015, 2018-), former mayor of Guadalupe (2015-2018) – are both considered close allies of former governor Rodrigo Medina, accused of corruption and irregularities during his term. Medina was also investigated, and briefly detained for one day, for illicit enrichment and embezzlement in 2017 by El Bronco’s administration.

The MC’s candidate is young (33) senator Samuel García. A former state legislator (2015-2018), he was elected to the Senate in 2018 with the MC ticket winning the most votes in the state.

García is the pure living embodiment of the spoiled rich white kid, and he has turned into a meme because of his behaviour. He has a history of tone-deaf statements including whining that when he was 15 his dad used to wake him up at 5am on Saturdays to play golf or considering 40,000-50,000 pesos to be a sueldito (small salary; most Mexicans earn less than 7,500 pesos a month). In 2015, García controversially said that in Mexico, the north works, the centre administrates and the south rests.

García married Instagram influencer Mariana Rodríguez in May 2020, at a wedding which did not follow public health restrictions. During an Instagram Live in 2020, García was accused of being misogynistic when he scolded his wife for ‘showing too much leg’. Mariana Rodríguez has been one of García’s main surrogates, in a campaign which has relied on social media and spontaneous campaigning on the streets – rather than mass events.

The MC had a rather nasty and divisive battle between García and state deputy Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas (the son of Luis Donaldo Colosio Murrieta, the assassinated 1994 PRI presidential candidate). García wanted an internal primary because he controls the MC structure in NL, while Colosio wanted an open poll, where he would do better.

The MC initially considered an alliance with the PAN. García and the MC’s leader/owner, Dante Delgado, opposed an alliance with the PAN, considering that it would be a net drag on the party. Colosio, as well as Jalisco governor Enrique Alfaro, wanted a PAN-MC coalition in NL, an idea supported by some panistas like the PAN mayor of San Nicolás de los Garza Zeferino Salgado. An alliance with the PAN was ruled out in November 2020, and Colosio dropped his gubernatorial bid to run for mayor of Monterrey instead. Colosio threatened to quit MC and run with Morena or one of the smaller parties (RSP or FxM). In January 2021, Colosio confirmed his candidacy in Monterrey with the MC, in exchange for control over the party’s candidacies for the state congress and control over the state party.

Samuel García portrays himself as ‘incorruptible’ and the only and campaigns on a slogan of throwing out the ‘old politics’ (the PRI and PAN) from NL. One of his most notable and ambitious promises is a new ‘fiscal pact’ – the system of federal fiscal/tax coordination, designed in 1978, recently criticized by the opposition governors of the rich states (NL, Jalisco, Tamaulipas, Coahuila). García claims that Nuevo León is paying far more in taxes than it gets back (the federal government keeps 90% of the state’s tax revenues), and with a strongly anti-centre (federal government) regionalist rhetoric, says that NL’s money needs to stay in NL. The issue is far more complex than García makes it out to be, and he is short on details of his preferred alternative. His rivals have opposed leaving the ‘fiscal pact’, with Flores warning that García’s plan would lead to the creation of a local consumption tax.

The PAN’s candidate is the former mayor of Monterrey (2009-2012) Fernando Larrazábal. Larrazábal also served as mayor of San Nicolás (2000-2003), state deputy (2006-2009) and federal deputy (2012-2015). He had largely been absent from politics for the past five years, but made a comeback with the backing of Zeferino Salgado, the mayor of San Nicolás, and the backing of PAN leader Marko Cortés. Larrazábal’s administration in Monterrey is associated with scandals, most notably the 2011 Casino Royale attack by Los Zetas which killed 52 people. Investigations revealed that the attack may have been linked to the casino’s refusal to pay extortion money to organized crime. A video showed Larrzábal’s brother receiving bundles of cash at a casino shortly before the attacks (he claimed it was because he sold them ‘liquor and cheese’). Larrzábal’s brother was detained for 108 days before being released. Larrazábal now calls his brother’s trial perverse and politically motivated.

The PAN considered alliances with the MC (see above), the PRI and PRD. In November 2020, the PAN’s state leaders rejected an alliance with the PRI, their long-time rival. The PAN approved an alliance with the PRD, but the PRD decided to go with the PRI instead. Larrazábal won the PAN’s internal primary in January 2021 with 71.8% against 22.4% for senator Víctor Fuentes.

With his controversial past and absence from politics for five years, Larrazábal is a weak candidate. There have been rumours that the plan is (was?) for him to drop out after a certain point and make a deal with Adrián de la Garza. Larrazábal is said to have worked for de la Garza in 2018, and Salgado is close to de la Garza and Cienfuegos. Saddled by Larrazábal, PAN mayoral candidates have tried to distance themselves from their gubernatorial candidate. However, despite these rumours, Larrazábal has sustained his campaign – though with little momentum, but still in low double-digits. He is confident that he can even finish second if turnout is low. Nevertheless, on Twitter, Felipe Calderón has pushed for him to drop out in favour of de la Garza.

The high-stakes election has been quite nasty on all sides. There had been speculation, from photographs, that Flores had participated in the sex cult/multilevel marketing organization NXIVM. Flores accepted that she had taken a personal development class but denied knowing about NXIVM or its leader, Keith Raniere, sentenced to 120 years in prison in 2020. In late March, de la Garza released a one-hour video of a discussion between Raniere and Flores in which she asks for his advice on governing. Flores was badly hurt by the NXIVM revelations, seeing her lead in the polls evaporate quickly. She later apologized and admitted that it was a mistake to repeatedly deny knowing Raniere. This scandal, which likely hurt her the most among middle-class urban voters, forced her to refocus her campaign around AMLO and bank on the president’s 40-45% approval in NL as her path to a narrow victory.

Later, in April, de la Garza turned his attacks to Samuel García, who had begun improving in the polls after Flores fell. He accused García of lying about his family’s ties to Gilberto García Mena, a convicted drug lord and former high-ranking member of the Gulf Cartel and revealed a 1996 video of a family party where 10-year-old Samuel García is seen with his parents taking a picture with Gilberto García Mena. García retorted that de la Garza was desperate and that it is not a crime to dance. De la Garza also denounced García and his family to the Attorney General’s office (FGR) for the irregular purchase of a luxury apartment at less than a third of its value. Unlike with the Raniere video, however, García did not suffer much damage from this scandal.

Over a week ago, the FGR announced that it was investigating García and de la Garza for alleged electoral offences. García is under investigation by the finance secretariat’s financial investigation unit for the financing of his campaign by his relatives (his wife, his father and father-in-law). Authorities are also looking at his father-in-law’s involvement in a fraudulent network of frontmen and shell companies and accusations that his wife’s promotion of his campaign on her Instagram is not being declared in his campaign expenses. Adrián de la Garza is being investigated for the promotion of a ‘pink card’ for women, a possible form of conditioning votes or vote buying (promising a card with 1,500 pesos bimonthly for women if he wins). Both candidates have denied the accusations against them.

Given the timing of these investigations, it is widely suspected that they are in some way orchestrated by AMLO to favour the flailing campaign of his candidate, Clara Luz Flores. There are also strong rumours that AMLO is trying to lay the groundwork to have the election annulled in courts afterwards, as has happened in other states in the past. The two candidates themselves, the opposition and critical journalists attacked AMLO for interfering in the electoral process. AMLO openly said that he had something to do with the FGR’s investigation and that he was the one who had denounced the candidates.

In Monterrey, Colosio has claimed that Cienfuegos (PRI) had spied on him and his family and used the municipal police to intimidate his family. On the other hand, the company in which Colosio is a partner obtained ‘legal advice’ contracts worth over 7 million pesos with the corrupt administrations of former PRI governors Borge (Q. Roo), Sandoval (Nay.), Medina (NL) and Duarte (Ver.).

Clara Luz Flores began the campaign in January 2021 as the favourite. García seemed weakened by his self-inflicted controversies, and de la Garza was Flores’ main rival. She retained her lead until March, but Flores’ support collapsed – falling into third place in nearly all polls – following the Raniere/NXIVM scandal (or, according to other arguments, her identification with the unpopular Morena/4T brand in NL). García, who had been counted out until then, surged. The race is now between García and de la Garza.

Demoscopia on May 17 had de la Garza leading with 28% against 22% for García, with Larrazábal climbing into third with 20%. El Financiero in April had García taking a two-point lead over de la Garza (29-27) with Flores and Larrzábal tied for third (20, 21). The latest poll by El Norte had García leading. Massive Caller has consistently had García leading comfortably.

[Torie]

What riveting essays you write Hash. I am not sure whether I am reading a novel or journalism, but that is really beside the point. It may be that the two literary forms have essentially merged when it comes to the public square in Mexico.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Samuel Garcia and his wife are the ultimate San Pedro "fresa" stereotypes. If a writer invented these characters, he'd be trashed for being unrealistic and also uncreative, for leaning on stereotypes too heavily. The golf detail would be seen as excessive hyperbole.

[Hash]

Querétaro

Querétaro, located in central Mexico, is one of the most economically dynamic states in the country – with a thriving manufacturing sector, including Mexico’s main aerospace industry cluster. Since the election of the first non-priista (PAN) governor in 1997, the state has been ruled by the PAN for three terms (1997-2003, 2003-2009, 2015-2021) and the PRI for only one term (2009-2015).

In 2015, the PAN’s Francisco ‘Pancho’ Domínguez Servién, senator (2012-2015) and former mayor of Querétaro (2009-2011), was elected governor. Domínguez has been mixed up in a series of scandals. In 2019, Domínguez was among the senior politicians implicated in the Caja Libertad scandal, a savings and credit agency formerly owned by Juan Collado, who was arrested for a suspected fraudulent real estate transaction. Collado is a politically connected lawyer whose clients include Enrique Peña Nieto, Raúl Salinas and Carlos Romero Deschamps; the plaintiff claimed that the resources from the fraudulent transaction paid for Domínguez’s electoral campaign and that the real owners of Caja Libertad were EPN, Carlos Salinas, Pancho Domínguez and PAN senator Mauricio Kuri. Domínguez and Kuri were later exonerated of all responsibility in the Caja Libertad scandal.

Already back during the 2015 campaign, in a leaked audio between then-panista gubernatorial candidates Domínguez and Mendoza Davis (BCS), Domínguez mentioned receiving monthly contributions of 6 million pesos until the election from a man named ‘Kors’. It has recently been revealed that ‘Kors’ likely referred to Peña Nieto’s then interior secretary Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong.

In 2020, not only was Pancho Domínguez among the politicians named by Emilio Lozoya as having received bribes in exchange for voting in favour of EPN’s energy reform but also as one of those who ‘extorted’ the most, asking for up to 50 million dollars per vote. Lozoya even described the incumbent governor as “drunk and aggressive”, “screaming” to demand more bribes. Lozoya also claimed that Ricardo Anaya – a queretano, staunch rival of Domínguez and the PAN’s 2018 presidential candidate – received 6.8 million pesos to support his gubernatorial aspirations in Querétaro in 2014, on orders of then-finance secretary Luis Videgaray.

In August 2020, a video – supposedly released by Lozoya as part of his plea deal – showed a Pemex official giving bundles of cash to a former secretary of the Senate and Domínguez’s private secretary. The money being received was, according to Lozoya, for the then-panista senators including Pancho Domínguez. The governor denied having anything to do with the accusations and that he had nothing to hide, considering the ‘videoscandal’ to be a political hitjob.

Querétaro is a conservative state where the PAN is strong. It is also the home state of the PAN-PRD-MC’s 2018 presidential candidate, Ricardo Anaya. In 2018, however, Anaya lost the state by about 7.5 points to AMLO – 33.9% against 41.4% for the president. Nevertheless, the PAN won the most votes in the Senate election, with 38.8%.

The PAN’s candidate is senator Mauricio Kuri. Kuri, a former businessman, was previously mayor of Corregidora (2015-2018) and was elected to the Senate in 2018. From 2019 until his resignation in 2021, Kuri was the coordinator of the PAN caucus in the Senate, making him a prominent figure of the opposition nationally. Unlike Domínguez, Kuri is a close ally of Ricardo Anaya and has had a tense relationship with Domínguez. Last year, there were rumours that the governor’s entourage suspected that it was Kuri who negotiated the publication of the scandalous video with the presidential palace.

Kuri has his own controversies. Kuri has strong ties to Francisco Javier Rodríguez Borgio, ‘the czar of casinos’, a controversial businessman accused of fraudulent real estate deals, gasoline theft, money laundering and investigated in Spain for death threats and plotting to assassinate two Spanish businessmen. Rodríguez Borgio would have given 30 million pesos to Kuri and Domínguez’s electoral campaigns in 2014-5 in exchange for personal favours and business deals. The PAN mayor of Colón who spoke out about Kuri’s close ties to the ‘czar of casinos’ was conveniently arrested and put away in prison.

Morena’s candidate is retired judge Celia Maya, who had previously run for the PRD in 2003 (6.6%) and Morena in 2015 (5.6%). She also unsuccessfully run for the Senate in 2012 and 2018. Maya served as a magistrate on the Superior Court of Justice of Querétaro between 1985 and 2019. She is close to AMLO and she was twice among those nominated by the president for vacancies on the Supreme Court, in 2018 and 2019; however, she was not elected by the Senate on either occasion. In 2019, when she was a nominee for the Supreme Court, she caused controversy with her comments about same-sex adoption, questioning whether same-sex parents would be good for a child’s upbringing. She retired from the court in the fall of 2019 and receives a monthly lifelong pension of 157,000 pesos ($7,800), after successfully challenging a state law capping public officials’ pensions – a major contradiction with AMLO and Morena’s austerity discourse.

Morena’s mayoral candidate in Querétaro, the state capital, is Arturo Maximiliano García Pérez, a former panista who had served as coordinator for Kuri’s mayoral and senatorial campaigns in 2015 and 2018, respectively. He is up against incumbent PAN mayor Luis Bernardo Nava, who is seeking reelection.

The PRI’s candidate is Abigail Arredondo, a state deputy. The other candidates are Raquel Ruiz de Santiago Álvarez (PRD), Penélope Ramírez (PT), Katia Reséndiz (PVEM), Bety León (MC), Miguel Nava (RSP), Juan Carlos Martínez (FxM) and María de Jesús Ibarra Pérez (PES). There are rumours that Felipe Calderón is quietly backing the PES’ candidate, who is close to calderonista PAN deputy and former mayor of Querétaro Marcos Aguilar.

Kuri will almost certainly win by an extremely comfortable margin on June 6 – he has led in every single poll, often by nearly 20 points.

San Luis Potosí

San Luis Potosí (SLP) is a state of 2.8 million people in central Mexico which has become one of the main centres of the Mexican automotive industry.

Although it has been ruled by the PRI with the exception of one PAN governor (2003-2009), SLP saw one of the first opposition movements to PRI rule, led by Salvador Nava Martínez. In 1958, Nava won the city hall of San Luis Potosí as an independent, defeating the PRI candidate, and three years later ran for governor as an independent – unsurprisingly losing a rigged election. Nava led protests which were brutally repressed by the army and he was twice arrested. Nava returned to politics a second time, elected mayor of San Luis Potosí once again as an opposition candidate in 1982 and leading an opposition coalition in the 1991 gubernatorial election. The 1991 election was won by the PRI, amidst allegations of frauds, and Nava led a protest march to Mexico City which pushed Carlos Salinas to pressure the priista governor-elect to resign.

In the last election, in 2015, the PRI’s Juan Manuel Carreras narrowly won, with 35.7% against 33% for the PAN’s candidate. In 2018, AMLO won the state with 41.9% against 26.6% for Anaya and 20.7% for Meade. Morena remains rather weak in the state – in 2018, although it became the largest force in the state congress (tied with the PAN), the traditional parties (PRI, PAN, PRD) retained most municipalities.

The PAN-PRI-PRD-PCP’s candidate is Octavio Pedroza (PAN), former senator (2012-2018), federal deputy (2009-2012) and mayor of SLP (2003-2006). The state leadership of the PRI, divided between different factions, was unable to settle on a candidate and handed over its power to the national leadership. There were also tensions within the PAN, with several members and leaders leaving the party in protest. Among them was the mayor of San Luis Potosí, Xavier Nava Martínez, grandson of Salvador Nava and former PRD federal deputy (2015-2018). Nava unsuccessfully sought the PAN’s gubernatorial nomination and then challenged the results which favoured Pedroza. Nava also quit the PAN and looked to other parties, before finally seeking re-election in SLP as Morena’s candidate.

Governor Carreras’ faction seems to have been weakened and marginalized in the process, although he was able to impose Enrique Galindo as the coalition’s mayoral candidate in the state capital. Galindo was general commissioner of the Federal Police (2013-2016), under whose tenure El Chapo was captured twice but faced several scandals – arbitrary execution, violent repression of protests and excessive use of forces against protesters. He was dismissed in 2016 by Peña Nieto following arbitrary execution scandals.

Pedroza is the brother of the state’s finance secretary. An independent candidate has claimed that public funds are being used to support Pedroza’s candidacy.

Morena and its allies – the PVEM and PT – are divided in SLP. The candidate of the PVEM-PT is federal deputy Ricardo ‘el Pollo’ Gallardo (PVEM), former mayor of Soledad de Graciano Sánchez (2012-2014). Gallardo is the son of Ricardo Gallardo Juárez, former mayor of San Luis Potosí (2015-2018) and his predecessor as mayor of Soledad de Graciano Sánchez (2009-2012). Gallardo is a former member of the PRD, and coordinator of the PRD caucus in the lower house, who spearheaded the defection of a group of nine PRD federal deputies in February 2019 and later joined the PVEM.

Gallardo is a controversial politician, particularly distrusted by the state’s business and political elites but with support among poorer voters. While his municipal administration was well regarded because of the implementation of social programs, he and his father have faced allegations of corruption. In early 2015, as he was a gubernatorial pre-candidate for the PRD, he was arrested and later incarcerated for 11 months, accused of embezzling 200 million pesos in public funds to companies of which he was shareholder. He was released in late 2015 after a judge ruled that prosecutors had been unable to prove the crimes of which he was accused. More recent reports claim that Gallardo and his father embezzled over 700 million pesos during their administrations in SLP and Soledad de Graciano Sánchez.

Gallardo campaigns using traditional clientelist tactics. He’s been accused by his opponents of promoting a card with monetary benefits attached – like de la Garza in NL – which would be conditioned to people providing proof that they voted PVEM.

The PVEM-PT’s mayoral candidate in SLP is Leonel Serrato, a recent disgruntled Morena defector who unsuccessfully sought Morena’s gubernatorial nomination.

Nationally, the PVEM and especially the PT had repeatedly insisted that their loyalty be rewarded with a governorship, with one of the potential states (for the Greens) being SLP with Gallardo, who is strongly backed by the current strongman of the Greens, senator (and former governor of Chiapas) Manuel Velasco. However, local Morena members in SLP rejected an alliance with the PVEM in the state because of Gallardo’s bad reputation. Later, Morena’s pre-candidates rebelled against the national leadership when it announced that the party’s candidate in SLP would be a woman, to conform with new gender parity rules.

Morena’s candidate is Mónica Rangel, a former priista and health secretary (2015-2012) in Juan Manuel Carreras’ cabinet. Her candidacy was announced by Morena in February 2021, following rumours that the PRI governor – sidelined within his own party – had proposed an alliance to Morena. Local NGOs have denounced irregularities – the use of false invoices and shell companies to embezzle funds – in state contracts during the pandemic.

Morena’s mayoral candidate in San Luis Potosí is the incumbent (ex-PAN) mayor Xavier Nava, who until just a few months ago was a staunch opponent of the government. His candidacy was cancelled by the state electoral court, but the ruling was overturned, and his candidacy restored by the regional chamber of the TEPJF.

The PES’ candidate is Adrián Esper Cárdenas, a businessman and former independent mayor of Ciudad Valles (2018-2021). Esper was among Morena’s gubernatorial pre-candidates, but after the national leadership imposed a woman candidate, he criticized Morena’s opaque and undemocratic selection process and got the PES’ support to continue his candidacy. Esper is a colourful figure who enjoys dressing up as a cowboy, defines himself as an environmental activist and is a big fan of Elon Musk and Tesla. As mayor, he ordered 15 Tesla cybertrucks for the local police force. Despite running for the conservative PES, he says that he is left-wing. His ideas are rather eclectic and ambitious – dollarization, open borders with the US and Canada, more electric cars and hydropanels. His candidacy is said to be backed by businessmen tied to Carlos Slim’s Grupo Carso.

The other candidates are Marvely Costanzo (MC), Francisco Javier Rico Ávalos (PANAL), Juan Carlos Machinena (FxM), Arturo Segoviano (independent) and José Luis Romero Calzada ‘El Tecmol’ (RSP). The latter, an ex-priista state deputy, is a colourful (and controversial) meme – the kind of candidate profile the new party has gone for. He’s posed shirtless in Alaska, hit someone at an event, insulted journalists, danced with a donkey, danced on the floor of the state congress, challenged Esper to a contest to see who is strongest and has been accused of gasoline theft.

Polling in this race has been confusing. Pedroza has a very comfortable lead in Massive Caller polls, but a recent poll in Reforma had Pedroza and Gallardo tied at 38% each (Rangel only had 13%), while El Financiero’s poll in April showed Gallardo leading by two (36% to 34%), surging by 17% from their poll in March. El País’ poll average has Pedroza ahead with 38% against 26% for Gallardo and 22% for Rangel.

[Hash]

Sinaloa

Sinaloa, a state often famous for all the wrong reasons, is a traditional PRI stronghold – although the PAN was strong historically. The PRI has governed the state for all but one term (2011-2016). The only non-priista governor in the state’s modern history thus far was Mario López Valdez ‘Malova’, a PRI senator (2006-2010) and local businessman – owner of a chain of hardware stores. He left the PRI just months before the election and was elected in 2010 with the backing of an opposition coalition (PAN-PRD-MC). Malova left a paltry record – widespread violence, corruption and accusations that he was protecting the Sinaloa Cartel. In 2016, Quirino Ordaz Coppel – a PRI politician and businessman close to President Peña Nieto – was elected governor by a comfortable margin and 41.7% of the vote. Today, Quirino Ordaz is on very good terms with AMLO and there are even rumours that the president would like him to take control of the PRI after the elections…

In 2018, however, AMLO won Sinaloa in a landslide with no less than 64.4% of the vote against a mere 18% for Meade. Morena swept the congressional elections, won a majority in the state congress, and took all of the state’s five largest municipalities – Culiacán, Mazatlán, Ahome, Guasave and Navolato.

Morena’s candidate is former senator (2018-2021) Rubén Rocha Moya. Rocha, the former rector of the Autonomous University of Sinaloa (1993-1997), already ran for governor twice before, in 1986 (for a leftist coalition, 1.7%) and 1998 (for the PRD, 19%). He was elected to the Senate in 2018. Although he is an old left-wing activist – a member of the Unified Socialist Party of Mexico (PSUM) in the 1980s and later the PRD – he has also worked for PRI state and federal administrations. He was coordinator of advisors for PRI governor Jesús Aguilar Padilla (2005-2010), deputy director of training and technical services of the ISSSTE (public sector social security agency) between 2013 and 2017, and again coordinator of advisors for incumbent PRI governor Quirino Ordaz in 2017.

Rocha is supported by the local Partido Sinaloense (PAS) and its owner, Héctor Cuén. Cuén is the former rector of the Autonomous University of Sinaloa (2005-2009) and he and his party still maintain control over the university. He is an opportunistic politician who has been mayor of Culiacán for the PRI (2011-2012), senatorial candidate for the PANAL (2012), state deputy for the PAS (2013-2016), gubernatorial candidate for the PAS-MC in 2016 (finishing second with 26%) and senatorial candidate in 2018. Three years ago, the PAS was allied to the PAN-PRD-MC, but now it’s allied with Morena and Cuén is already saying that he will ‘co-govern’ the state with Rocha.

The alliance with the PAS and the candidate selection process in Morena displeased certain factions of the party which still refuse to support Rocha, although most original critics (unsuccessful pre-candidates) were placated with candidacies.

Journalist Anabel Hernández, one of the top specialists on drug trafficking in Mexico, claimed in an interview that Rocha had gotten the ‘go-ahead’ to govern the state from Ismael ‘El Mayo’ Zambada García, one of the most wanted drug lords and last remaining member of the Sinaloa Cartel’s old guard.

The PRI-PAN-PRD’s candidate is former senator (2018-2021) Mario Zamora. Zamora, elected to the Senate in 2018, was a state deputy over 10 years ago (2007-2010) and later worked in the federal government during EPN’s administration. He had the backing of governor Ordaz and was preferred to Jesús Valdés, former mayor of Culiacán (2017-2018) and state leader of the PRI.

Zamora has the support of much of the state’s business community, most notably Enrique Coppel Lukken (board member of the Grupo Coppel, a large chain of department stores).

Morena has criticized the governor for allegedly interfering in the election. The FGR is investigating the use of rechargeable cards – with up to 350 pesos monthly to buy groceries – distributed by the state government since last year.

The MC’s candidate is Sergio Torres Félix, former state fisheries secretary (2018-2012), PRI mayor of Culiacán (2014-2016) and federal deputy (2012-2013). Torres left the PRI last year after some 20 years.

The other candidates are Ricardo Arnulfo Mendoza (PES), Gloria González (PT), Yolanda Cabrera (RSP) and Rosa Elena Millán (FxM). The PVEM’s candidate withdrew to support Rocha González and Millán are former priistas (Millán is a three-time state deputy and former federal deputy), and FxM in Sinaloa is led by the son of former PRI governor Juan Millán.

Here, the trend is clear: Rocha is the prohibitive favourite and leads by around 10 points. A poll in Reforma in mid-May had him leading Zamora by 10%. A poll a bit before that in El Universal only had Rocha ahead by 4% but it seems to be an outlier from other polls.

[jaichind]

In the 300 district seats, the two major alliances (MORENA-PVEM-PT and PAN-PRI-PRD) are not perfect.

MORENA-PVEM-PT has an alliance in 183 seats and allocated (MORENA 83, PVEM 50, PT 45).  In the other 117 seats MORENA PVEM and PT will run separately.  Due to the need to get around 8% rule I am pretty sure at least half of the PVEM and PT candidates are really MORENA running on PVEM and PT identification. 

PAN-PRI-PRD has an alliance in 219 seats and allocated (PRI 77  PAN 72 PRD 70).  In 81 seats PAN PRI and PRD will run separately. 

MC will run in all 300 seats.
RSP will run in 296 seats (new Leftist party)
FPM will run in 296 seats (MORENA splinter)
PES will run in 299 seats (Christian social conservative, ex-ally of MORENA.)  PES failed to win 3% in 2018 and got deregistered.  PES is trying to get around 3% this time around to become a registered party and get government funding.   

Given MORENA-PVEM-PT alliance vote is mostly concentrated with MORENA the fact that in 117 seats these 3 parties will separately will hurt a lot less than PAN-PRI-PRD will run separately in 81 seats since in many states PAN and PRI support are evenly split letting MORENA to run away with most of the seats in those 81 seats.

[jaichind]

PREP should show up the election night for preliminarly results on the various election commission websites

Federal election:    https://www.ine.mx/

Baja California:   https://www.ieebc.mx/
Baja California Sur:   https://www.ieebcs.org.mx/
Campeche:    https://www.ieec.org.mx/
Chihuahua:   https://www.ieechihuahua.org.mx/
Colima:   https://ieecolima.org.mx/
Guerrero:  https://iepcgro.mx/proceso2021/
Michoacán:   https://www.iem.org.mx/
Nayarit : https://ieenayarit.org/
Nuevo León:  https://www.ceenl.mx/
Querétaro:  https://www.ieeq.mx/
San Luis Potosí:  http://www.ceepacslp.org.mx/ceepac/
Sinaloa:  https://www.ieesinaloa.mx/
Sonora:  http://www.ieesonora.org.mx/
Tlaxcala:  https://www.itetlax.org.mx/
Zacatecas:  http://www.ieez.org.mx/