Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

[Oryxslayer]

I was able to map the alliance candidate party ID to derive

MORENA-PVEM-PT   118
   MORENA                   59
   PVEM                        27
   PT                            32

PAN-PRI-PRD         65
   PAN                         38
   PRI                          20
   PRD                           7

How exactly would one find the ID of those candidates running one the alliance lists for the districts? All PREP's I have checked have them listed as alliance candidates.

[Socani]

I was able to map the alliance candidate party ID to derive

MORENA-PVEM-PT   118
   MORENA                   59
   PVEM                        27
   PT                            32

PAN-PRI-PRD         65
   PAN                         38
   PRI                          20
   PRD                           7

How exactly would one find the ID of those candidates running one the alliance lists for the districts? All PREP's I have checked have them listed as alliance candidates.

Here's for AMLO's coalition:

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_federales_de_M%C3%A9xico_de_2021#/media/Archivo:Juntos_hacemos_historia_candidaturas.svg

Here's for the Opposition:

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_federales_de_M%C3%A9xico_de_2021#/media/Archivo:Va_por_mexico_candidaturas.svg

[jaichind]

I was able to map the alliance candidate party ID to derive

MORENA-PVEM-PT   118
   MORENA                   59
   PVEM                        27
   PT                            32

PAN-PRI-PRD         65
   PAN                         38
   PRI                          20
   PRD                           7

How exactly would one find the ID of those candidates running one the alliance lists for the districts? All PREP's I have checked have them listed as alliance candidates.

It is not easy.  You have to find the alliance agreement field with INE

https://repositoriodocumental.ine.mx/xmlui/bitstream/handle/123456789/117345/CGex202115-02-rp-4-Anexo.pdf

is the one for PAN-PRI-PRD


https://repositoriodocumental.ine.mx/xmlui/bitstream/handle/123456789/118544/CGor202103-21-rp-27-Anexo.pdf

is the one for MORENA-PVEM-PT


the addendum of each agreement has the party that is running for each alliance seat.

BTW, the PT candidates are mostly bogus and almost certainly directly controlled by AMLO which makes them de facto MORENA candidate despite their PT party label.  This is all just a ploy to get around the 8% rule.

[jaichind]

Nuevo León had some fun 4- way battles (all in non-Null form)
 
Nuevo León 3rd
MORENA-PVEM-PT (PT)           26.53%
MC                                        26.21%
PAN                                       26.14%
PRI                                       16.43%


Nuevo León 7th
MORENA-PVEM-PT (PVEM)       26.02%
PAN                                       25.58%
MC                                        24.70%
PRI                                       16.85%


Nuevo León 8th
PRI                                        28.34%
PAN                                       24.07%
MORENA-PVEM-PT (PVEM)       22.65%
MC                                        21.53%


Nuevo León 12th
PRI                                        26.65%
MORENA-PVEM-PT (MORENA)   25.39%
PAN                                       23.39%
MC                                        20.36%

[Hash]

BTW, the PT candidates are mostly bogus and almost certainly directly controlled by AMLO which makes them de facto MORENA candidate despite their PT party label.  This is all just a ploy to get around the 8% rule.

Certainly was the case in 2018 and undoubtedly there'll be lots of defectors to and from Morena/PT/others in this new legislature, but the INE has approved new rules to avoid partisan overrepresentation (i.e. getting around the 8% rule) of the kind that benefited Morena in 2018, consisting of verifying the 'effective affiliation' of each fptp candidate in a coalition at the time of their registration. The INE verified the affiliation of candidates (as of Mar. 21) in May. Here is the full text of their decision.

It was actually in the case of VxM did they find the most simulated candidacies, reassigning the distribution as follows: PAN 88 (+11), PRI 69 (-2), PRD 61 (-9). In the Morena and friends coalition, they only found two simulated candidacies, both Morena candidacies who were actually PT and PVEM members respectively.

Also worth noting that the PT was, with Morena, the parliamentary group that benefited the most from defections between 2018 and 2021. It's a good party for defectors of various stripes, it's not only a fake label.

[jaichind]

BTW, the PT candidates are mostly bogus and almost certainly directly controlled by AMLO which makes them de facto MORENA candidate despite their PT party label.  This is all just a ploy to get around the 8% rule.

Certainly was the case in 2018 and undoubtedly there'll be lots of defectors to and from Morena/PT/others in this new legislature, but the INE has approved new rules to avoid partisan overrepresentation (i.e. getting around the 8% rule) of the kind that benefited Morena in 2018, consisting of verifying the 'effective affiliation' of each fptp candidate in a coalition at the time of their registration. The INE verified the affiliation of candidates (as of Mar. 21) in May. Here is the full text of their decision.

It was actually in the case of VxM did they find the most simulated candidacies, reassigning the distribution as follows: PAN 88 (+11), PRI 69 (-2), PRD 61 (-9). In the Morena and friends coalition, they only found two simulated candidacies, both Morena candidacies who were actually PT and PVEM members respectively.

Also worth noting that the PT was, with Morena, the parliamentary group that benefited the most from defections between 2018 and 2021. It's a good party for defectors of various stripes, it's not only a fake label.

Ah, did not know INE came up with rules to try to block this workaround of the 8% rule.  Useful to know. 

[PSOL]

What are the full results in the 23rd district, one near Mexico City.

[Oryxslayer]

What are the full results in the 23rd district, one near Mexico City.

23rd District of Mexico State was a marginal race between MORENA and PRI:

https://prep2021.ine.mx/diputaciones/nacional/circunscripcion5/mexico/distrito23-lerma-de-villada/votos-candidatura

[Frodo]

Given how machismo Mexican culture is, this is a notable achievement by women:

Women score historic wins in Mexico's mid-term elections

[jaichind]

Given how machismo Mexican culture is, this is a notable achievement by women:

Women score historic wins in Mexico's mid-term elections

My impression is that this was top-down.  Meaning AMLO mandated a certain quota of female candidates for MORENA.

[Hash]

Given how machismo Mexican culture is, this is a notable achievement by women:

Women score historic wins in Mexico's mid-term elections

My impression is that this was top-down.  Meaning AMLO mandated a certain quota of female candidates for MORENA.

It certainly was, but had little to do with AMLO (who doesn't care or know about gender equality). Gender equity and now gender parity in candidacies for elected office has been making its way since the 1990s. The current electoral law, adopted in 2013, mandates gender parity in candidacies for Congress, state congresses and municipalities. A 2019 constitutional reform, adopted unanimously, enshrines these gender parity requirements and extended it to all three branches of government including the Supreme Court, cabinet appointments and autonomous institutions.

In November 2020, the INE approved rules requiring gender parity in the 15 gubernatorial elections, stipulating that parties would need to run at least 7 women. In December 2020, the TEPJF revoked the INE's decision considering that it lacked the power to do so, but its ruling still required parties to run 7 women for governor.

While gender parity requirements meant that Congress is now evenly split between men and women (48.2% women in the lower house in 2018, 49.2% of women in the Senate), governorships were the last remaining male-dominated world: only seven women had ever been elected governors prior to 2021 and only two women were governors/heads of government (Sonora, CDMX) prior to this election out of 32 states.

[jaichind]

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/morena-loses-ground-in-mexico-city/

Morena party loses ground in Mexico City, winning only 7 of 16 boroughs

I think MORENA ended up winning Xochimilco.  Map looks a lot like East West Berlin

[kaoras]

Not the only Latin American city with an east-west divide. In Santiago is the opposite though

[jaichind]

With all the votes officially counted AMLO bloc gets 2 more seats from PREP count.

                              Win    Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT    186              44.32%
PAN-PRI-PRD           107              41.06%
MC                             7                7.27%

Breakdown are
 
                                Win         
MORENA                     64                 
PVEM                           1                   
MORENA-PVEM-PT      121               
PAN                            33                 
PRI                             11                 
PRD                              0                   
PAN-PRI-PRD              63                 
MC                              7                   

I was able to map the alliance candidate party ID to derive

MORENA-PVEM-PT   121
   MORENA                   59
   PVEM                        30
   PT                            21

PAN-PRI-PRD         63
   PAN                         37
   PRI                          19
   PRD                           7

So district seat by party is

PAN          70
PRI           31
PRD           7
PVEM       31
PT            32
MC            7
MORENA 123

Vote by party (and projected PR seats)

PAN         18.91%     41
PRI          18.37%     40
PRD           3.78%      8
PVEM         5.63%    12
PT             3.36%      7
MC            7.27%    16
MORENA  35.33%    76
PES           2.85%
RSP          1.83%
FxM          2.57%


This gives us current seat count

MORENA-PVEM-PT        281
PAN-PRI-PRD               196
MC                               23


With seats by party

              District         PR      Total
PAN           70              41      111
PRI            31             40        71
PRD            7               8        15
PVEM         31             12        43
PT             32               7        39
MC             7              16        23
MORENA  123              76      199

[jaichind]

On legislative elections if you break out the seats by alliances for both blocs you get

PAN-PRI-PRD alliance

                     2018 vote share         2021 vote share            Swing
                      (PAN-PRI-PRD)          (PAN-PRI-PRD)           
PAN                     42.49%                     41.18%                 -1.31%
PRD                     37.72%                    35.86%                  -1.86%
PRD                     35.89%                    31.33%                  -4.56%
No Alliance           50.82%                    52.06%                   1.24%

As mentioned before PAN got better seats than PRI who go better seats than PRD.  The seats where there were no alliance tends to be where both PAN and PRI are strong so no deal can be made so the 2018 PAN-PRI-PRD vote share were higher here.    Looking at the 2018-2021 swings it is clear that this alliance had some trouble transferring votes to each other, especially transfers from PAN and PRI to PRD.  In seats where there no alliance PAN-PRI-PRD gained votes but lost votes in seats where they were in alliance especially in those seats where PRD ran.

Similar chart for MORENA-PVEM-PT

MORENA-PVEM-PT alliance

                     2018 vote share         2021 vote share            Swing
                  (MORENA-PVEM-PT)    (MORENA-PVEM-PT)           
MORENA              48.60%                    45.25%                 -3.35%
PVEM                   43.00%                   42.26%                  -0.74%
PT                       49.70%                    45.30%                 -4.40%
No Alliance           48.33%                   45.36%                  -2.97%

The quality of seats that PVEM got are clearly worse than those that MORENA and PT got.  There was a clear swing against MORENA-PVEM-PT since in seats where there was no alliance the sum of their vote share saw a swing of almost -3%.  The vote share loss for MORENA and PT seat are only slightly worse which means the alliance was mostly effective in transferring votes to each other with PT getting somewhat worse deal than MORENA.  PVEM, despite getting worse seats, seems to have made lemonade with lemon by limiting its vote share loss to less than 1% and with the PAN-PRI-PRD losses in those districts actually gained seats for MORENA bloc relative to 2018.  PVEM seems to have done this with recruiting local political talent that has a personal vote plus pouring resources into those seats where PVEM are running.

Separately, I identified 11 seats where there were no MORENA-PVEM-PT alliance but a PAN-PRI-PRD alliance were in effect that were won by PAN-PRI-PRD but could have been won by MORENA-PVEM-PT  had they formed an alliance.  Similarly I identified 11 seat where there were no PAN-PRI-PRD alliance but a MORENA-PVEM-PT alliance were effect that were won by MORENA-PVEM-PT but could have been won by PAN-PRI-PRD had they formed an alliance.  One can argue that since the PAN-PRI-PRD alliance had trouble with transferring votes to each other their 11 missed seats are not locks even had they had an alliance.  But overall failure to form consequential alliances hurt both blocks equally.

[jaichind]

Shift in governors by party.  Campeche is still being disputed but eventually it will most likely go MORENA.

[JM1295]

Crazy to think PRI had something like two-thirds of all governorships in 2009. They got completely wiped out in these last elections.

[jaichind]

Crazy to think PRI had something like two-thirds of all governorships in 2009. They got completely wiped out in these last elections.

After 2009 elections I think PRI had 19 governorships and as of 2014 PRI actually had 20 governorships with 1 for its ally PVEM. The PRI collapse started in 2016 when it was PAN-PRD that made gains against PRI.  What is also amazing is that until 2018 MORENA did not win any governorships but now has 16 with 1 for its PES ally and 1 for its PVEM ally.  Base on these years results I think MORENA is on track to win 3 more next year (Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo).  This run is amazing.

 

[jaichind]

Going seat by seat and looking at what vote share each party got and comparing them to 2018 gives the interesting following swing details

                  PAN       PRI       PRD   PAN-PRI-PRD   MORENA  PVEM       PT    MORENA-PVEM-PT
Urban        3.52%   4.10%   -3.31%     4.30%       -4.75%  -1.47%  -1.75%       -7.97%
Suburban   2.47%   1.79%   -1.07%    3.19%        -5.03%    0.11%  -1.32%      -6.24%
Rural        -2.56%  -0.90%   -1.56%   -5.02%       -1.93%    1.58%  -0.11%       -0.46%
Total        -0.11%   0.99%   -1.80%    -0.91%       -3.42%    0.61%  -0.73%      -3.53%

PAN-PRI made gains in Urban and Suburban areas while pro-AMLO bloc lost a lot of ground there.  PRD lost ground across the board.  In rural areas thanks to a PVEM surge and MORENA very limited losses and PAN losses in rural areas the pro-AMLO bloc overperformed relative to PAN-PRI-PRD.

If you look at how the new parties RSP and FxM performed by district type as well as PES swing relative to 2018

               RSP       FxM
Urban      0.91%   2.00%
Suburban 1.54%   2.41%
Rural       2.33%   2.87%
Total        1.83%   2.57%

                  PES swing
Urban          -0.09%
Suburban     -0.44%
Rural            0.90%
Total             0.34%

It seems their vote share growth are limited in Urban and Suburban areas where the anti-AMLO vote has consolidated around PAN-PRI-PRD while in rural areas a some of the old PAN-PRI-PRD vote has shifted to these smaller parties instead going to the pro-AMLO bloc.  So in rural areas there does seem to be some distrust of the AMLO bloc even as PAN-PRI-PRD are losing ground while in urban areas the AMLO bloc are clearly losing ground directly to PAN-PRI-PRD.


If you do a more detailed version of swings by alliance dynamic by party you get

PAN-PRI-PRD alliance

Type                  PAN         PRI      PRD       PAN-PRI-PRD
PAN                  0.95%   -0.39%  -1.51%        -0.96%
PRI                 -3.20%    3.41%  -2.24%        -2.03%
PRD                -1.28%   -0.21%  -3.71%        -5.21%
No Alliance       2.46%    0.84%  -1.70%         1.60%

PAN and PRI clearly have issues transferring votes to each other even given the option to vote for their own party but for the alliance candidate of a different party.  PAN has a bigger problem of transferring its votes to PRI (-3.20%) versus PRI transferring its votes to PAN (-0.39%.)  PAN clearly also had problems transferring its vote to PRD (-1.28%.)  PRI clearly shifted a bunch of resources for seats it was running it was running as a part of the alliance and got a big swing (3.41%.)  It seems PRD is losing ground across the board and lost more ground in seats PRD is contesting as part of the alliance.  As noted before PAN and PRI, especially PAN, gained ground when running separately which shows the extent of the missed opportunities of this alliance due to vote transfer problems.   Unless MORENA implodes it seems PRD might be in terminal decline looking at these numbers since their value as an ally should be considered suspect.  

I did some more digging and without going through the effort of posting the details the places where PAN-PRI vote transfer was suboptimal are in rural areas which is where they are losing ground.  Most likely these lost votes are going to MC and the newer parties (RSP FxM).


MORENA-PVEM-PT alliance
  
                        MORENA          PT          PVEM       MORENA-PVEM-PT
MORENA             -3.14%       -0.88%     0.33%              -3.69%
PVEM                 -2.87%        -0.56%     2.25%             -1.19%
PT                     -4.40%        -0.43%    -0.16%             -4.99%
No Alliance         -3.39%       -0.81%      0.34%             -3.86%

Despite clear vote share losses this alliance worked a lot better than PAN-PRI-PRD alliance.  It seems that MORENA lost ground on the order of -4% across the board and PT lost ground on the order of 1% across the board while PVEM made tiny gains of something like 0.3% across the board.  But MORENA, PVEM and PT were most able to transfer their votes to allies in the sense that their vote drop-off was similar even when the candidate is from an alliance partner.  Only exception is that MORENA->PT vote transfer does seem a bit sub-optional where the MORENA vote dropped -4.99% versus something like -4%.  PVEM clearly invested in the seats they were running as part of the alliance (which made it winnable) and got a solid positive swing 2.25% versus the roughly 0.3% gain is is getting elsewhere.

[jaichind]

Final ? governor results (too lazy to strip out NULL vote)

Baja California
MORENA-PVEM-PT     48.49%
PES                          31.00%  
PAN-PRI-PRD            11.61%

 
Baja California Sur
MORENA-PT              45.31%
PAN-PRI-PRD            39.33%
PVEM                        3.02%

 
Campeche  
MORENA-PT              33.98%
MC                           32.24%
PRI-PAN-PRD            30.42%

 
Chihuahua  
PAN-PRD                  42.46%
MORENA-PT-PANAL   32.73%
MC                          11.51%
PRI                           7.06%
 

Colima
MORENA-PANAL       33.39%
PRI-PAN-PRD           27.39%
MC                          18.92%
PVEM                      13.67%

 
Guerrero  
MORENA                43.45%
PRI-PRD                39.21%
PVEM-PT                 6.09%
MC
 

Michoacán
MORENA-PT            41.76%
PRD-PRI-PAN          38.90%
PVEM                      5.70%
MC                         3.81%
PES                        3.13%


Nayarit
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL      49.29%
MC                                      20.52%
PAN-PRI-PRD                       17.68%
MLN                                     4.32% (local party)

 
Nuevo León  
MC                                    36.72%
PRI-PRD                            27.91%
PAN                                  18.33%
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL   14.03%


Querétaro  
PAN                          54.12%
MORENA                   24.03%
PRI                           11.70%


San Luis Potosí  
PVEM-PT                   37.59%
PAN-PRI-PRD            33.15%
MORENA                   13.41%
RSP                            8.69%


Sinaloa  
MORENA-PAS            56.60%
PRI-PAN-PRD            32.49%
MC                            2.89%

 
Sonora  
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL   51.81%
PRI-PAN-PRD                    35.38%
MC                                    4.75%


Tlaxcala
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL-PES    48.66%
PRI-PAN-PRD                            36.87%
RSP                                          6.17%


Zacatecas
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL         49.94%
PRI-PAN-PRD                           37.96%
MC                                          2.77%

[jaichind]

https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/monreal-asegura-que-estara-en-la-boleta-2024

El Universal reports that Mexico Senate leader Ricardo Monreal will run to become MORENA Prez candidate in 2024

Just a couple of days ago Foreign Affairs Minister Marcelo Ebrard said at a press briefing that he will be ready to make a presidential bid when the time is right

Also last week AMLO mentioned last week that potential candidates to replace him include Ebrard, Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, Economy Minister Tatiana Clouthier, Energy Minister Rocio Nahle, Ambassador to the U.S. Esteban Moctezuma and Ambassador of Mexico to the United Nations Juan Ramón de la Fuente.

Looks like the various MORENA titans are getting ready for a contested race for MORENA nomination