Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

[jaichind]

^We could see MORENA walk away with 12/15 governorships if that's the case, though BCS would be a hard swing for MORENA.

I guess this is possible if MORENA wins all the tossups and also wins Chihuahua where it is a slight underdog and Baja California Sur where I guess in theory they could win.

[jaichind]

I wonder why El Financiero did not poll San Luis Potosí.  I assume they did not poll Guerrero and Michoacán due to lack of local infrastructure and/or crime.

[jaichind]

El Financiero exit polls

Chihuahua:   PAN-PRD

[jaichind]

If PAN-PRD won Chihuahua by a good margin then it is clear that the PRI vote tactically voted PAN-PRD to defeat MORENA. If so that has implications in Congressional seats where vote transfers between PAN PRI and PRD might be better than I would expect.  If so I would find it hard for AMLO bloc to beat the 306 seats they won back in 2018.

[jaichind]

El Financiero exit polls

Sonora:  MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL

[jaichind]

El Financiero exit polls

Lower House vote

MORENA   40%
PVEM         4%
PT             3%
PRI          21%
PAN         20%
PRD          3%
MC            5%

MORENA about where you expect it.  PRI and PAN overperforming.  Of PRI-PAN-PRD are at 44% there is very little chance of AMLO bloc going above 300 seats.

[jaichind]

Very early but so far PAN-PRI-PRD doing better than expected in Congressional count (4% of the vote in)

                             Ahead    Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT    152              42.98%
PAN-PRI-PRD           110              44.50%
MC                           10                6.87%

[Hash]

For the record, El Financiero's exit polls only indicated certainty in Qro. (for PAN) - for all other states they give an 'advantage' to a certain candidate, but they're making it clear that this does not declare a winner.

Given that it's early days and this means that everyone and their grandmother are self-proclaiming themselves as winners, might be best to ignore a lot of noise until tomorrow morning...

But yes, a two-thirds majority for the 4T seems increasingly unlikely. Good news!

[jaichind]

With 9.2% of the vote counted in PREP for Congressional vote we have

                             Ahead    Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT    160              42.99%
PAN-PRI-PRD           111              44.16%
MC                             8                6.98%

The count in opposition seats must be higher ergo we have vote MORENA bloc behind in vote share but ahead in terms of seats.

My back-of-the-envelope calculation of seats had AMLO bloc at 184 seats.  With the remaining 21 seats with no leads being more likely to lean MORENA so far that estimate is roughly correct with slight AMLO bloc underperformance.

[jaichind]

Luis Carlos Ugalde, ex-Prez of Mexico's INE said that El Financiero exit polls on Congress vote implied that AMLO bloc will get around 260 seats, far less than AMLO would have hoped.

[jaichind]

One last update from me before I head to bed for a few hours

With 17.5% of the vote counted in PREP for Congressional vote we have

                             Ahead    Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT    170              43.16%
PAN-PRI-PRD           113              43.55%
MC                             8                7.23%


Compared to my back-of-the-envelope projections it is
      
                               Ahead         My projection
MORENA                     59                  64
PVEM                           1                    0
MORENA-PVEM-PT      110               120
PAN                            34                 31
PRI                             12                   6
PRD                              0                   0
PAN-PRI-PRD              67                  75
MC                              8                    4

PAN PRI MC are outperforming and AMLO bloc are underperforming.  But the count is early and MORENA could very well turn this around

[MRCVzla]

INE official projection (quick count) for Federal elections:
MORENA 34.9-35.8% (190-203 seats)
PAN 18.5-19.3% (106-117)
PRI 17.8-18.5% (63-75)
MC 7.1-7.5% (20-27)
PVEM 5.5-6.0% (40-48)
PRD 3.5-3.9% (12-21)
PT 3.1-3.5% (35-41)
PES 2.7-3.0% (0-6)
FxM 2.6-2.8% (0)
RSP 1.8-2.0% (0)
Independents 0.1-0.3% (0)

AMLO bloc 43.5-45.3% (265-292)
VxM bloc 39.8-41.7% (181-213)

Turnout: 51.7-52.5%

[jaichind]

With 65.8% of the vote counted in PREP for Congressional vote we have

                             Ahead    Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT    185              43.88%
PAN-PRI-PRD           108              41.89%
MC                             7                7.22%

Compared to my back-of-the-envelope projections it is
     
                               Ahead         My projection
MORENA                     66                  64
PVEM                           1                    0
MORENA-PVEM-PT      118               120
PAN                            34                 31
PRI                             11                   6
PRD                              0                   0
PAN-PRI-PRD              63                  75
MC                              7                    4

The back-of-the-envelope model I had ended up being pretty accurate.  MC at 7.22% is doing better than expected.  I suspect the vote share of AMLO block will go up from here.

PT should make the 3% cut although it is not clear PRD will.  PES and FxM will both miss the 3% cut but both will be close.

[jaichind]

With 69.7% of the vote counted in PREP for Congressional vote we have (all non-NULL vote share)

                             Ahead    Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT    185              43.91%
PAN-PRI-PRD           108              41.82%
MC                             7                7.22%

Compared to my back-of-the-envelope projections it is
     
                               Ahead         My projection
MORENA                     66                  64
PVEM                           1                    0
MORENA-PVEM-PT      118               120
PAN                            34                 31
PRI                             11                   6
PRD                              0                   0
PAN-PRI-PRD              63                  75
MC                              7                    4


Vote by party (and projected PR seats)

PAN         19.74%     42
PRI          18.50%     40
PRD           3.58%      8
PVEM         5.16%    11
PT             3.08%      7
MC            7.22%    15
MORENA  35.69%    77
PES           2.62%
RSP          1.73%
FxM          2.62%

This gives us current seat count

MORENA-PVEM-PT        280
PAN-PRI-PRD               198
MC                               22

[jaichind]

Governor races (too lazy to strip out NULL)

Baja California (40.9% in)

MORENA-PVEM-PT     48.39%
PES                          31.24%  !!
PAN-PRI-PRD            11.74%

PAN-PRI-PRD candidate is an independent so the PAN vote it seems went to PES


Baja California Sur (69.5% in)
MORENA-PT              46.62%
PAN-PRI-PRD            40.11%
PVEM                        3.10%

MORENA ahead beating pre-election polls


Campeche (25.3% in)
MORENA-PT              32.40%
MC                           31.95%
PRI-PAN-PRD            31.56%

Very close 3 way race.  Wow


Chihuahua (40.6% in)
PAN-PRD                  45.99%
MORENA-PT-PANAL   30.95%
MC                          12.31%
PRI                           5.18%

PRI vote tactically voted for PAN-PRD


Colima (51.2% in)
MORENA-PANAL       32.98%
PRI-PAN-PRD           28.49%
MC                          17.96%
PVEM                      12.96%

Very splintered vote


Guerrero (23.3% in)
MORENA                46.74%
PRI-PRD                38.71%
PVEM-PT                 4.50%

Daughter of controversial original MORENA candidate wins


Michoacán (69.3% in)
MORENA-PT            41.27%
PRD-PRI-PAN          39.18%
PVEM                      5.55%
MC                         3.97%
PES                        3.32%

Somewhat closer than expected but MORENA-PT looks likely to win.


Nayarit (41.1% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL      50.30%
MC                                      20.80%
PAN-PRI-PRD                       16.01%
MLN                                     4.69% (local party)

Poor showing by ruling PAN


Nuevo León (50.0% in)
MC                                    36.87%
PRI-PRD                            27.68%
PAN                                  18.54%
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL   13.83%

Inability for PRI-PRD and PAN to come together allowed MC to win


Querétaro (site is down but it is clear PAN have won)


San Luis Potosí (25.4% in)
PVEM-PT                   36.40%
PAN-PRI-PRD            34.26%
MORENA                   11.70%
RSP                            8.45%

PVEM-PT ahead which could change.  Anti-MORENA sentiment is strong here so the ruse of running PVEM-PT separately seems to be working for now


Sinaloa (28.5% in)
MORENA-PAS            55.98%
PRI-PAN-PRD            34.17%

PAS is a local party


Sonora (38.1% in)

MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL   51.28%
PRI-PAN-PRD                    37.37%
MC                                    4.48%


Tlaxcala (11.8% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL-PES    47.93%
PRI-PAN-PRD                            37.74%
RSP                                          5.93%


Zacatecas (64.3% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL         48.50%
PRI-PAN-PRD                           37.69%
MC                                          3.19%


Overall the PAN-PRI alliance did not work.  Where it could have made a difference (Nuevo León) they failed to form an alliance and where they formed an alliance it was not good enough to win.  If they come from behind in San Luis Potosí to win they that would be the only state where PAN-PRI alliance would have made a difference.  Same with Michoacán  where if PRD-PRI-PAN does come from behind to win then the grand alliance would have made a difference.

[jaichind]

With 73.7% of the vote counted in PREP for Congressional vote we have (all non-NULL vote share)

                             Ahead    Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT    183              43.96%
PAN-PRI-PRD           110              41.77%
MC                             7                7.20%

Compared to my back-of-the-envelope projections it is
     
                               Ahead         My projection
MORENA                     65                  64
PVEM                           1                    0
MORENA-PVEM-PT      117               120
PAN                            35                 31
PRI                             11                   6
PRD                              0                   0
PAN-PRI-PRD              64                  75
MC                              7                    4


Vote by party (and projected PR seats)

PAN         19.68%     42
PRI          18.50%     40
PRD           3.58%      8
PVEM         5.22%    11
PT             3.10%      7
MC            7.20%    15
MORENA  35.66%    77
PES           2.64%
RSP          1.73%
FxM          2.61%

This gives us current seat count

MORENA-PVEM-PT        278
PAN-PRI-PRD               200
MC                               22

[jaichind]

With 82.5% of the vote counted in PREP for Congressional vote we have (all non-NULL vote share)

                             Ahead    Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT    185              43.99%
PAN-PRI-PRD           108              41.63%
MC                             7                7.24%

Compared to my back-of-the-envelope projections it is
     
                               Ahead         My projection
MORENA                     65                  64
PVEM                           1                    0
MORENA-PVEM-PT      119               120
PAN                            34                 31
PRI                             11                   6
PRD                              0                   0
PAN-PRI-PRD              63                  75
MC                              7                    4


Vote by party (and projected PR seats)

PAN         19.48%     42
PRI          18.52%     40
PRD           3.63%      8
PVEM         5.29%    11
PT             3.14%      7
MC            7.24%    15
MORENA  35.57%    77
PES           2.71%
RSP          1.74%
FxM          2.60%

This gives us current seat count

MORENA-PVEM-PT        280
PAN-PRI-PRD               198
MC                               22

MC and PES are both gaining ground.  PES might have an outside shot at making 3% although I doubt it.  I expect MC to gain a PR seat from MORENA on current trends but I suspect these seat projections will be what roughly takes place.

[jaichind]

Governor races  update (too lazy to strip out NULL)

Baja California (71.3% in)

MORENA-PVEM-PT     48.24%
PES                          31.33%  !!
PAN-PRI-PRD            11.68%

PAN-PRI-PRD candidate is an independent so the PAN vote it seems went to PES


Baja California Sur (92.3% in)
MORENA-PT              46.67%
PAN-PRI-PRD            39.95%
PVEM                        3.13%

MORENA won despite being behind in the polls most of the campaign


Campeche (59.5% in)
MORENA-PT              32.81%
MC                           31.98%
PRI-PAN-PRD            30.97%

Very close 3 way race.  Have been fairly stable throughout the count.  MORENA-PT should have this.


Chihuahua (67.3% in)
PAN-PRD                  44.42%
MORENA-PT-PANAL   30.15%
MC                          12.49%
PRI                           6.85%

PRI vote tactically voted for PAN-PRD to defeat MORENA


Colima (87.9% in)
MORENA-PANAL       32.94%
PRI-PAN-PRD           27.83%
MC                          18.87%
PVEM                      12.96%

Very splintered vote.  I wonder if PVEM running was a ploy to capture the anti-MORENA vote and deny it to PRI-PAN-PRD.


Guerrero (31.3% in)
MORENA                46.81%
PRI-PRD                38.25%
PVEM-PT                 4.51%

Daughter of controversial original MORENA candidate wins


Michoacán (85.9% in)
MORENA-PT            41.58%
PRD-PRI-PAN          38.98%
PVEM                      5.53%
MC                         3.89%
PES                        3.24%

Somewhat closer than expected but MORENA-PT goes on to win.


Nayarit (71.6% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL      49.53%
MC                                      20.73%
PAN-PRI-PRD                       16.99%
MLN                                     4.60% (local party)

Poor showing by ruling PAN.  It seems a good part of the PAN-PRI-PRD base went over to MC.


Nuevo León (90.1% in)
MC                                    36.59%
PRI-PRD                            28.23%
PAN                                  18.06%
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL   14.07%

Inability for PRI-PRD and PAN to come together allowed MC to win


Querétaro (site is down but it is clear PAN have won)


San Luis Potosí (48.0% in)
PVEM-PT                   36.62%
PAN-PRI-PRD            33.55%
MORENA                   11.54%
RSP                            8.86%

PVEM-PT seems on track to win.  Anti-MORENA sentiment is strong here so the ruse of running PVEM-PT separately seems to have worked.  It seems like some of the PAN-PRI-PRD vote went over to RSP.


Sinaloa (51.0% in)
MORENA-PAS            56.40%
PRI-PAN-PRD            33.25%

PAS is a local party


Sonora (86.1% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL   51.39%
PRI-PAN-PRD                    35.88%
MC                                    4.73%


Tlaxcala (35.6% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL-PES    47.75%
PRI-PAN-PRD                            37.79%
RSP                                          6.29%


Zacatecas (87.6% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL         48.61%
PRI-PAN-PRD                           38.26%
MC                                          2.95%


It seems other than Campeche  the winners are clear.  Even in Campeche MORENA-PT are heavy favorites to win.   Overall MORENA overperformed in the governor races.  It pulled off an upset in Baja California Sur, won all the tossups, got PVEM to win San Luis Potosí beating back PAN-PRI-PRD and in Nuevo León MC won versus PRI-PRD.  Only in Chihuahua  where the PAN PRI split could have delivered the governorship to MORENA were MORENA's hopes dashed.

One takeaway from these races are that PRI voters seems to be willing to transfer its votes or tactically vote for PAN but the PAN vote is far more independent and not as willing to transfer its vote to PRI. 

[Octowakandi]

So did that Miss Mexico lady end up winning her race?

[jaichind]

So did that Miss Mexico lady end up winning her race?

She was the PAN-PRI-PRD backed independent candidate for governor in Baja California.  She was beaten badly by MORENA as the PAN vote shifted to PES.

[Mike88]

The House election results so far: (92% in)

42.6% Morena/PVEM/PT, 184 seats
39.9% PAN/PRI/PRD, 109
  7.0% MC, 7
10.5% Others/Invalid, 0

52.1% Turnout

Morena itself has lost its majority, right? That isn't a good result for Obrador as he's now dependent on his allies, right?

Results from here: https://expansion.mx/prep2021

[Socani]

The House election results so far: (92% in)

42.6% Morena/PVEM/PT, 184 seats
39.9% PAN/PRI/PRD, 109
  7.0% MC, 7
10.5% Others/Invalid, 0

52.1% Turnout

Morena itself has lost its majority, right? That isn't a good result for Obrador as he's now dependent on his allies, right?

Results from here: https://expansion.mx/prep2021

They lost the qualified majority (For modifying the constitution) but they still have the majority in Congress by my calculations:

JHH (AMLO'S Coalition): 285
VxM (The opposition): 192
MC: 23

[Mike88]

The House election results so far: (92% in)

42.6% Morena/PVEM/PT, 184 seats
39.9% PAN/PRI/PRD, 109
  7.0% MC, 7
10.5% Others/Invalid, 0

52.1% Turnout

Morena itself has lost its majority, right? That isn't a good result for Obrador as he's now dependent on his allies, right?

Results from here: https://expansion.mx/prep2021

They lost the qualified majority (For modifying the constitution) but they still have the majority in Congress by my calculations:

JHH (AMLO'S Coalition): 285
VxM (The opposition): 192
MC: 23

Yes, but Morena alone doesn't have a majority, like they did since 2018, right?

[jaichind]

With 93% of the vote counted in PREP for Congressional vote we have (all non-NULL vote share)

                             Ahead    Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT    183              44.13%
PAN-PRI-PRD           110              41.32%
MC                             7                7.24%

Compared to my back-of-the-envelope projections it is
     
                               Ahead         My projection
MORENA                     64                  64
PVEM                           1                    0
MORENA-PVEM-PT      118               120
PAN                            33                 31
PRI                             11                   6
PRD                              0                   0
PAN-PRI-PRD              66                  75
MC                              7                    4


Vote by party (and projected PR seats)

PAN         19.17%     41
PRI          18.40%     40
PRD           3.75%      8
PVEM         5.54%    12
PT             3.29%      7
MC            7.24%    16
MORENA  35.30%    76
PES           2.81%
RSP          1.81%
FxM          2.59%

This gives us current seat count

MORENA-PVEM-PT        278
PAN-PRI-PRD               199
MC                               23

PES vote share still rising.  Most likely will not make it to the 3% threshold.

[Mike88]

With 93% of the vote counted in PREP for Congressional vote we have (all non-NULL vote share)

                             Ahead    Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT    183              44.13%
PAN-PRI-PRD           110              41.32%
MC                             7                7.24%

Compared to my back-of-the-envelope projections it is
     
                               Ahead         My projection
MORENA                     64                  64
PVEM                           1                    0
MORENA-PVEM-PT      118               120
PAN                            33                 31
PRI                             11                   6
PRD                              0                   0
PAN-PRI-PRD              66                  75
MC                              7                    4


Vote by party (and projected PR seats)

PAN         19.17%     41
PRI          18.40%     40
PRD           3.75%      8
PVEM         5.54%    12
PT             3.29%      7
MC            7.24%    16
MORENA  35.30%    76
PES           2.81%
RSP          1.81%
FxM          2.59%

This gives us current seat count

MORENA-PVEM-PT        278
PAN-PRI-PRD               199
MC                               23

PES vote share still rising.  Most likely will not make it to the 3% threshold.

You're projecting 279 for Morena/PVEM/PT, 201 for PAN/PRI/PRD and 20 for MC, right?