Samoan election
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Author Topic: Samoan election  (Read 1014 times)
Torie
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« on: May 25, 2021, 08:09:57 AM »

I did not see a thread for this country. If there is my apologies.

My partner’s friend Fiame whose new party FAST won a majority of the seats, 26-25 and thus able to form a government and elect her PM, after the independent chose to caucus with FAST, and then won a supreme court case rejecting the incumbent prime minister’s appointment of a 52nd member evening up the number of seats on the grounds of gender equality, and calling new elections given the ersatz deadlock that he created, locked Fiame out of the parliament building for her swearing in ceremony, so it was held in a tent outside, after which the head of state (a largely ministerial position) characterized the FAST party members as “traitors.” So I guess we have another supreme case, which the incumbent PM will lose, and then the Supreme Court will be deemed “traitors” and then … .

https://apnews.com/article/samoa-business-2af5278d48463d1038b982a7fe16e14c

And here is the video of the lock out:

https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/asia/100000007779435/samoa-election-parliament.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_20210525&instance_id=31487&nl=todaysheadlines&regi_id=65968308&segment_id=58942&user_id=686c3e5a2acdb0b1ab0cf3271f43c295
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PSOL
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« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2021, 08:34:13 AM »

While the previous ruling party was bad, they did win 55% of the vote and that equaling the same number as a party who got 41% is ludicrous.
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Estrella
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« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2021, 09:50:11 AM »

While the previous ruling party was bad, they did win 55% of the vote and that equaling the same number as a party who got 41% is ludicrous.

Tbf Samoan elections aren't exactly 100% free and fair. It's the typical goodies-and-clientelism* stuff rather than anything clearly undemocratic, but still.

And if a party loses the popular vote but wins government in a Western country with FPTP, nobody tries to prevent them from forming government. It's just that Samoa has a smaller electorate and more potential for freak outcomes like this.

* the latter is especially important; one of the reasons why HRPP has the ideology (if you can call it that) it has and why it has been able to stay in power so long is that Samoa is an extremely conservative country in the literal sense. There's deference to local bigwigs who have a lot of power in getting the vote out.
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Storr
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« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2021, 11:22:25 AM »

Hopefully American Samoa and the former Western Samoa will be reunited someday. Their combined population would be around 250,000 which would be the third largest political entity in both Polynesia and Micronesia behind Hawaii and French Polynesia.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2021, 06:25:29 PM »

While the previous ruling party was bad, they did win 55% of the vote and that equaling the same number as a party who got 41% is ludicrous.

Without getting too off topic, I wonder what the worst offending elections are. Wisconsin in 2018 and South Africa in 1948 come to mind.
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Estrella
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« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2021, 04:43:48 AM »

While the previous ruling party was bad, they did win 55% of the vote and that equaling the same number as a party who got 41% is ludicrous.

Without getting too off topic, I wonder what the worst offending elections are. Wisconsin in 2018 and South Africa in 1948 come to mind.

With elections that weren't absurd gerrymanders (as seems to be the case in Samoa; the district borders are literally just straight lines), the answer is probably Canada 1979. Liberals won the popular vote by 4.2 points, but PCs won 22 more seats and almost got a majority.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2021, 05:04:21 AM »

While the previous ruling party was bad, they did win 55% of the vote and that equaling the same number as a party who got 41% is ludicrous.

Without getting too off topic, I wonder what the worst offending elections are. Wisconsin in 2018 and South Africa in 1948 come to mind.

With elections that weren't absurd gerrymanders (as seems to be the case in Samoa; the district borders are literally just straight lines), the answer is probably Canada 1979. Liberals won the popular vote by 4.2 points, but PCs won 22 more seats and almost got a majority.
Why would simple straight lines be an absurd gerrymander in a Samoan context? Especialy since it seems that no districts cross itūmālō boundaries and given the geography, straight lines are simply creating a bunch of districts running from the mountains to the ocean...
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Estrella
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« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2021, 05:19:06 AM »

While the previous ruling party was bad, they did win 55% of the vote and that equaling the same number as a party who got 41% is ludicrous.

Without getting too off topic, I wonder what the worst offending elections are. Wisconsin in 2018 and South Africa in 1948 come to mind.

With elections that weren't absurd gerrymanders (as seems to be the case in Samoa; the district borders are literally just straight lines), the answer is probably Canada 1979. Liberals won the popular vote by 4.2 points, but PCs won 22 more seats and almost got a majority.
Why would simple straight lines be an absurd gerrymander in a Samoan context? Especialy since it seems that no districts cross itūmālō boundaries and given the geography, straight lines are simply creating a bunch of districts running from the mountains to the ocean...

Exactly. I reread that sentence after I posted it and thought "this sounds like the opposite of what I wanted to say" Tongue
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2021, 12:27:14 PM »

While the previous ruling party was bad, they did win 55% of the vote and that equaling the same number as a party who got 41% is ludicrous.

Without getting too off topic, I wonder what the worst offending elections are. Wisconsin in 2018 and South Africa in 1948 come to mind.

With elections that weren't absurd gerrymanders (as seems to be the case in Samoa; the district borders are literally just straight lines), the answer is probably Canada 1979. Liberals won the popular vote by 4.2 points, but PCs won 22 more seats and almost got a majority.
Why would simple straight lines be an absurd gerrymander in a Samoan context? Especialy since it seems that no districts cross itūmālō boundaries and given the geography, straight lines are simply creating a bunch of districts running from the mountains to the ocean...

Exactly. I reread that sentence after I posted it and thought "this sounds like the opposite of what I wanted to say" Tongue
Lol.
Well it happens...
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Torie
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« Reply #9 on: July 14, 2021, 09:13:25 AM »

The saga of the Samoan election is nearing its climax, with a potentially tragic denouement.

I now understand more clearly just why Fiame broke with the HRPP party to form FAST. Parliament had passed a law that basically purports to give what is the equivalent of  the executive branch the power at any time to unilaterally remove the Chief Justice. That might happen either before the hearing this Friday, and after the hearing but before a ruling, if the caretaker government does not like how the hearing went. What the hearing is about is whether or not by virtue of the doctrine of necessity, the court will rule that  the members of parliament shall be deemed to be sworn in, order the police to open the parliament building, and give the keys to the new government. Samoa by the way does not have an army, and the police are "unarmed," or so I have read.  One wonders just why the caretaker government is acting this way. It is as if once they lose power, they are terrified as to what might be uncovered as to what they did while in power, e.g., perhaps taking bribes from the Chinese government.

Why thing I do know is that this small island country of some 175,000 inhabitants is incredibly fortunate to have someone of the stature and character and discipline and courage as Fiame available and willing to serve it. In her second language of English, she speaks eloquently and with erudition, with an superb vocabulary.  She is well worth listening to. Dan and I are so fortunate to have spent some time with her a few years back. I shall never forget.

https://samoaglobalnews.com/red-flags-and-warning-signs-from-a-tyrants-playbook-fiame-on-hrpp-move-to-dismantle-judiciary/
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PSOL
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« Reply #10 on: July 14, 2021, 10:03:45 PM »

It only takes a determined core support of 3% to upend a given government. With 45%+ of Samoa supporting HRPP, they need to take the opportunity to kick out the tribal heads from government.
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Torie
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« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2021, 07:56:54 AM »

Samoa's highest court ruled that as of today, Samoa has a new government.  I read elsewhere that the police intend to take direction from the court, but the defeated PM has not been heard from yet, and so the drama may not yet be over.

https://www.samoaobserver.ws/category/samoa/87898
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2021, 11:05:07 AM »

It only takes a determined core support of 3% to upend a given government

Does this factoid have a substantial basis in fact? Would have thought rather more than 3% in Belarus felt that way last autumn - but Lukashenko is still there.
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Torie
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« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2021, 08:19:15 AM »

No huge surprise perhaps, but the HRPP loser is now channeling Trump.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/samoa-election-crisis-outgoing-pm-tuilaepa-sailele-malielegaoi-refuses-to-concede-despite-court-of-appeal-loss/QULNCAMWZSQGTG5HARS7VUO5TA/
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