Lee County, AL

[Thunder98]

Why is this college county literally not swinging at all? Both the Dems and GOP percentages have been stuck at 58-59% and 38%-39% respectively besides 2004 and 2008. Has to be one of the most stagnant counties in the country. 

[Bootes Void]

I dont think conservative southern evangelicals would budge much

[TDAS04]

Looks like a fairly good bellwether for Alabama as a whole.

[Sailor Haumea]

Why is this college county literally not swinging at all? Both the Dems and GOP percentages have been stuck at 58-59% and 38%-39% respectively besides 2004 and 2008. Has to be one of the most stagnant counties in the country. 

It's a perpetual tug of war between the rural areas + R-leaning Auburn (which voted for Trump by 13 points in 2016) and D-leaning Opelika (which voted for Trump by less than a point in 2016).

[TML]

White voters with higher education are far less Democratic in the Deep South than elsewhere in the country.

Lafayette County, Mississippi (home to the University of Mississippi) is another example of a college-dominated Deep South county which has maintained its Republican dominance in recent years with little change.

[Sailor Haumea]

White voters with higher education are far less Democratic in the Deep South than elsewhere in the country.

Lafayette County, Mississippi (home to the University of Mississippi) is another example of a college-dominated Deep South county which has maintained its Republican dominance in recent years with little change.

Part of this is that Oxford only barely leans towards Dems. Not enough to outvote the rural whites. Same with a lot of college counties in the Deep South - most college cities down there just aren't BIG enough to outvote their surroundings.

[Thunder98]

Why is this college county literally not swinging at all? Both the Dems and GOP percentages have been stuck at 58-59% and 38%-39% respectively besides 2004 and 2008. Has to be one of the most stagnant counties in the country. 

It's a perpetual tug of war between the rural areas + R-leaning Auburn (which voted for Trump by 13 points in 2016) and D-leaning Opelika (which voted for Trump by less than a point in 2016).

Ah, that makes a lot of sense. On the other hand, Athens-Clarke, GA is more of an anomaly based how it votes compared to other University counties in the South.

[Sailor Haumea]

Why is this college county literally not swinging at all? Both the Dems and GOP percentages have been stuck at 58-59% and 38%-39% respectively besides 2004 and 2008. Has to be one of the most stagnant counties in the country. 

It's a perpetual tug of war between the rural areas + R-leaning Auburn (which voted for Trump by 13 points in 2016) and D-leaning Opelika (which voted for Trump by less than a point in 2016).

Ah, that makes a lot of sense. On the other hand, Athens-Clarke, GA is more of an anomaly based how it votes compared to other University counties in the South.

Well, that's because Athens is the entire county, and it's twice as big as Auburn. Bigger college cities in the Deep South lean Dem - Tuscaloosa, for example, went for Clinton and Biden by double digits each but got outvoted by the rurals and Northport.

[Chips]

I dont think conservative southern evangelicals would budge much

This.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Why is this college county literally not swinging at all? Both the Dems and GOP percentages have been stuck at 58-59% and 38%-39% respectively besides 2004 and 2008. Has to be one of the most stagnant counties in the country. 

It's a perpetual tug of war between the rural areas + R-leaning Auburn (which voted for Trump by 13 points in 2016) and D-leaning Opelika (which voted for Trump by less than a point in 2016).

Ah, that makes a lot of sense. On the other hand, Athens-Clarke, GA is more of an anomaly based how it votes compared to other University counties in the South.

Well, that's because Athens is the entire county, and it's twice as big as Auburn. Bigger college cities in the Deep South lean Dem - Tuscaloosa, for example, went for Clinton and Biden by double digits each but got outvoted by the rurals and Northport.

Tuscaloosa is also a city that isn't purely a college town, while Auburn is literally just a college town.

[EastOfEden]

Looks like a fairly good bellwether for Alabama as a whole.

Seems to pick the winner without much trouble, but margins don't quite match. Jones +17(!) in 2017.