Wormless Gourd
cringenat
Jr. Member
Posts: 299
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« on: April 15, 2021, 08:37:35 PM » |
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« edited: April 15, 2021, 08:51:38 PM by cringenat »
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50-48 Biden PV. Biden has a net approval rating between +3 and -2 leading up to election day, DeSantis or some other appreciable R gets the nom.
Black turnout and D support increases, making NC tighter, GA a touch bluer and PA/MI about the same.
DeSantis mostly maintains with Hispanics and Asians, gains with college whites where some GOP-voting memory is still fresh but has small but critical turnout losses among non-college whites. AZ and WI flip by the barest amount, NV decided by <1 point, margin improvements in TX and FL.
Biden reelected.
GOP slimly have both chambers.
Tilt = Decided by 0.01-2% margin
Lean = 2-6% margin
Likely = 6-9.99% margin
Safe = >10% margin
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