- Moved South Dakota from lean to likely due to incumbency factor, but Noem's covid response and connections to Trump could make her slightly vulnerable.
South Dakota just went Trump +26 while he campaigned on "reopening" while Noem has basically kept the state open. The idea that her "connections to Trump" are going to damage her a year and half from now is just... silly. At some point, we have to stop believing this issue-based poll results on issues like Covid when a large number of people nationwide (45-50%) are still clearly voting for Republicans who are not in favor of lockdowns and closures.
Noem's approval ratings, from what I recall, have also remained well above water. Given these factors, and given that Billie Sutton-who was the strongest possible nominee for Democrats-still lost to Noem in a Democratic wave year, this race is Safe R. I think she will win by double digits
at the minimum, and more realistically, probably will do so by a margin similar to Trump.
