Early 2024 Presidential Ratings + 2022

[ElectionsGuy]

• Moved South Dakota from lean to likely due to incumbency factor, but Noem's covid response and connections to Trump could make her slightly vulnerable.

South Dakota just went Trump +26 while he campaigned on "reopening" while Noem has basically kept the state open. The idea that her "connections to Trump" are going to damage her a year and half from now is just... silly. At some point, we have to stop believing this issue-based poll results on issues like Covid when a large number of people nationwide (45-50%) are still clearly voting for Republicans who are not in favor of lockdowns and closures.

[ElectionsGuy]

My rough guess so far for the House in 2022, now that we have official census numbers. This is a median prediction, and I would put a MoE of +/-15 on it. It assumes the districts are drawn similarly in many states to the ones now, which many won't be.

AL: 6R, 1D
AK: 1R
AZ: 5R, 4D --> R+1, D-1
AR: 4R
CA: 40D, 12R --> R+1, D-2
CO: 4D, 4R --> R+1, D-0
CT: 5D
DE: 1D
FL: 18R, 10D --> R+2, D-1
GA: 9R, 5D --> R+1, D-1
HI: 2D
ID: 2D
IL: 12D, 5R --> D-1, R+0
IN: 7R, 2D
IA: 4R --> R+1, D-1
KS: 3R, 1D
KY: 5R, 1D
LA: 5R, 1D
ME: 1D, 1R --> R+1, D-1
MD: 7D, 1R
MA: 9D
MI: 8R, 5D --> R+1, D-2
MN: 5R, 3D --> R+1, D-1
MS: 3R, 1D
MO: 6R, 2D
MT: 2R --> R+1, D-0
NE: 3R
NV: 2R, 2D --> R+1, D-1
NH: 1D, 1R --> R+1, D-1
NJ: 9D, 3R --> R+1, D-1
NM: 2D, 1R
NY: 18D, 8R --> D-1, R-0
NC: 10R, 4D --> R+2, D-1
ND: 1R
OH: 12R, 3D --> R+0, D-1
OK: 5R
OR: 4D, 2R --> R+1, D-0
PA: 11R, 6D --> R+2, D-3
RI: 2D
SC: 6R, 1D
SD: 1R
TN: 7R, 2D
TX: 25R, 13D --> R+2, D+0
UT: 4R
VA: 6D, 5R --> R+1, D-1
VT: 1D
WA: 6D, 4R --> R+1, D-1
WV: 2R --> R-1, D+0
WI: 6R, 2D --> R+1, D-1
WY: 1R

Republicans: 236 (+23)
Democrats: 199 (-23)