Early 2024 Presidential Ratings + 2022
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 01:00:08 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  Early 2024 Presidential Ratings + 2022
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3
Author Topic: Early 2024 Presidential Ratings + 2022  (Read 10170 times)
WD
Western Democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,573
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: April 03, 2021, 02:03:34 AM »
« edited: April 03, 2021, 09:25:17 AM by Western Democrat »

most likely result imo



just imo
Logged
EastwoodS
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,847


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: April 03, 2021, 09:11:54 AM »



just imo
Seems legit.
Logged
Orca
Rookie
**
Posts: 18
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: April 04, 2021, 12:01:55 PM »

My ratings:
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,801
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: April 04, 2021, 12:34:00 PM »

My ratings:



No
Logged
Orca
Rookie
**
Posts: 18
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: April 04, 2021, 04:32:51 PM »

I think it's the most realistic outcome at the moment due to rust belt trends and other trends in general. I also think that AZ, GA, NC, and TX will have shifts to the left with TX probably being within 1 or 2 points. This would probably make more sense if I included margins but I don't know much about margins on this website. 
Logged
EastwoodS
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,847


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: April 04, 2021, 09:51:27 PM »

I think it's the most realistic outcome at the moment due to rust belt trends and other trends in general. I also think that AZ, GA, NC, and TX will have shifts to the left with TX probably being within 1 or 2 points. This would probably make more sense if I included margins but I don't know much about margins on this website. 
I think there’s a good chance TX stays at about a Cornyn 2020 senate margin across the board with more suited Republican nominees.
Logged
Orca
Rookie
**
Posts: 18
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: April 04, 2021, 10:38:50 PM »

I think it's the most realistic outcome at the moment due to rust belt trends and other trends in general. I also think that AZ, GA, NC, and TX will have shifts to the left with TX probably being within 1 or 2 points. This would probably make more sense if I included margins but I don't know much about margins on this website. 
I think there’s a good chance TX stays at about a Cornyn 2020 senate margin across the board with more suited Republican nominees.
That is highly unlikely. Texas has been shifting to the left fast for over a decade and shows no signs of slowing down in major metro areas like Houston and Dallas-Forth Worth.
Logged
EastwoodS
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,847


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: April 04, 2021, 10:46:40 PM »

I think it's the most realistic outcome at the moment due to rust belt trends and other trends in general. I also think that AZ, GA, NC, and TX will have shifts to the left with TX probably being within 1 or 2 points. This would probably make more sense if I included margins but I don't know much about margins on this website. 
I think there’s a good chance TX stays at about a Cornyn 2020 senate margin across the board with more suited Republican nominees.
That is highly unlikely. Texas has been shifting to the left fast for over a decade and shows no signs of slowing down in major metro areas like Houston and Dallas-Forth Worth.
It was 11 points to the right of the nation in 2016, in 2020 it was 10. It’s Has Slowed down a bit. Not saying TX won’t flip one day but it won’t come before other states flip towards the Republicans as well. The electoral college is unlikely to keep any party away from the 270 threshold.
Logged
Orca
Rookie
**
Posts: 18
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: April 04, 2021, 11:24:15 PM »

Comparing it to the popular vote isn't an effective measure. The most effective measure is measuring by the actual state shifts. The only reason the shifts in Texas from 2016-2020 were less than 2012-2016 was due to Rio Grande shifts, and those counties can only shift so far to the right. The cities are getting bluer at a faster rate, not slower, and are the main driving forces in Texas going left, most likely meaning a blue Texas in either 2024 or 2028 (more likely 2028). It is undeniable that Texas is shifting to the left fast, and the main driving factors in that (DFW and Houston) will consistently help to make that the case. Texas shows no signs of halting its leftward trend, even with the help of Hispanics in regions like Rio Grande.
Logged
David Hume
davidhume
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,581
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: 1.22

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: April 04, 2021, 11:46:22 PM »

GA isn't gonna vote D before WI and PA, and Bob Casey Jr is on the ballot in PA, if D's lose PA, the Election is over
A very popular president can help carry a senator, not the other way round.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,801
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: April 05, 2021, 02:17:11 AM »

GA isn't gonna vote D before WI and PA, and Bob Casey Jr is on the ballot in PA, if D's lose PA, the Election is over
A very popular president can help carry a senator, not the other way round.

What check the Election results PA WI and MI have gone D in every Election except for 2016/ and GA voted D once other than 2020/ 1992 for Prez check the Election results
Logged
Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: April 06, 2021, 11:49:26 AM »
« Edited: April 06, 2021, 12:09:36 PM by Southern Senator Spark »

Senate:



FLIPS: GA, PA, NH

Georgia: Collins 49%, Warnock 47%
Pennsylvania: Democrat 50%, Republican 48%
New Hampshire: Sununu 48%, Hassan 46%

Governor:



FLIPS:

Kansas: Schmidt 50%, Kelly 46%
Wisconsin: Duffy 50%, Evers 48%
New York: Someone Else 62%, Cuomo 38% (Cuomo in all likelihood does not win the primary)
Maryland: Democrat 51%, Rutherford 47%

House:

GOP +10

President:


Biden 50%, Republican 47%
Logged
Wormless Gourd
cringenat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 299
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: April 15, 2021, 08:37:35 PM »
« Edited: April 15, 2021, 08:51:38 PM by cringenat »


50-48 Biden PV. Biden has a net approval rating between +3 and -2 leading up to election day, DeSantis or some other appreciable R gets the nom.
Black turnout and D support increases, making NC tighter, GA a touch bluer and PA/MI about the same.
DeSantis mostly maintains with Hispanics and Asians, gains with college whites where some GOP-voting memory is still fresh but has small but critical turnout losses among non-college whites. AZ and WI flip by the barest amount, NV decided by <1 point, margin improvements in TX and FL.
Biden reelected.
GOP slimly have both chambers.

Tilt = Decided by 0.01-2% margin
Lean = 2-6% margin
Likely = 6-9.99% margin
Safe = >10% margin
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,801
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: April 16, 2021, 08:33:27 AM »

WI isn't Lean R, Evers is leading in every poll in Gov race
Logged
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,165
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: April 18, 2021, 04:05:40 AM »

Assuming Harris vs DeSantis

New Hampshire - D+5.8
Maine - D+4.9
New Mexico D+3.3
Minnesota D+2.5
Nevada D+2.2
Georgia - D+1.6
Michigan - D+1.1
Arizona - D+0.6
Wisconsin - R+0.2
Pennsylvania - R+1.6
North Carolina R+2.9
Alaska - R+3.7
Texas - R+4.8
Florida - R+9.3

Iowa, Colorado, Ohio and Virginia safe margin here. I also think if this scenario becomes true that Kansas will vote to the left of Iowa and perhaps Ohio.
Logged
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,165
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: April 18, 2021, 04:09:41 AM »


Governor:



FLIPS:

Kansas: Schmidt 50%, Kelly 46%
Wisconsin: Duffy 50%, Evers 48%
New York: Someone Else 62%, Cuomo 38% (Cuomo in all likelihood does not win the primary)
Maryland: Democrat 51%, Rutherford 47%

If Cuomo becomes the nominee, Democrats deserve to lose, but I don't think he would lose re-election because braindead partisan voters will always back their party candidate no matter what.
Logged
dw93
DWL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,870
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: April 25, 2021, 11:07:42 PM »

Senate:



I can see it going anywhere from R+1 to D+3 honestly, most likely a wash to D+1 or D+2.

House:

Anywhere from D+5 to R+25. R+5-R+15 is the most likely scenario at this time  for the House IMHO.

Governorships:



WI and KS go Republican, GA goes D. NH depends on what Sununu does, if he runs it stays R, if not lean D. MA is the same in a sense that if Baker runs again, safe R, if not, lean D. PA and AZ are toss ups that could go either way and depend on a variety of factors. MI and NV are lean D as of now, but could change as time progresses.

President in 2024:



Biden announces he's not running for a 2nd term in the Spring of 2023 and Trump announces he's not running in early 2023 after a year and a half of hinting he might. Harris sails to the Democratic nomination and selects Governor Roy Cooper as her running mate. Ron DeSantis, with Trump's endorsement, emerges as the Republican nominee, defeating Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Nikki Haley, Rick Scott, and Larry Hogan. He chooses Senator Tim Scott as his running mate. Despite DeSantis narrowly flipping AZ and WI to the GOP, VP Harris, thanks to close wins in PA, Mi, GA, and her running mate's home state of North Carolina, wins the Presidential election, due to a good economy and the popularity of outgoing President Joe Biden. Despite this, the Republicans keep control of the House, while the Republicans net gains of two seats in the Senate.

Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: May 06, 2021, 07:44:31 PM »
« Edited: May 07, 2021, 11:33:01 AM by #Neoliberal Elitist Butte »

2022 (SEN)

Likely D: --
Lean D: GA
Toss-up: AZ, NV, NH, PA
Lean R: WI, NC
Likely R: FL

Everything else is non-competitive/safe.

2024 (PRES)

Likely D: NE-02, MN, NH, ME-AL, NM
Lean D: GA
Toss-up: WI, MI, PA, NC, AZ, NV
Lean R: --
Likely R: FL, TX, AK

Everything else is non-competitive/safe.
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,237
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: May 07, 2021, 11:06:31 AM »

2022 (SEN)

Likely D: --
Lean D: GA
Toss-up: AZ, NV, NH, PA
Lean R: WI, NC
Likely R: FL

Everything else is non-competitive/safe.

2024 (PRES)

Likely D: NE-02, MN, NH, ME-AL, NM
Lean D: GA
Toss-up: WI, MI, PA, NC, AZ
Lean R: --
Likely R: FL, TX, AK

Everything else is non-competitive/safe.
What about NV?
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: May 07, 2021, 11:33:28 AM »


I missed that one, just added it.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,801
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: May 09, 2021, 11:01:29 AM »

2022 (SEN)

Likely D: --
Lean D: GA
Toss-up: AZ, NV, NH, PA
Lean R: WI, NC
Likely R: FL

Everything else is non-competitive/safe.

2024 (PRES)

Likely D: NE-02, MN, NH, ME-AL, NM
Lean D: GA
Toss-up: WI, MI, PA, NC, AZ
Lean R: --
Likely R: FL, TX, AK

Everything else is non-competitive/safe.
What about NV?


WI is a Tossup and so is NH and GA
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: May 11, 2021, 05:41:43 AM »

My rough guess so far for the House in 2022, now that we have official census numbers. This is a median prediction, and I would put a MoE of +/-15 on it. It assumes the districts are drawn similarly in many states to the ones now, which many won't be.

AL: 6R, 1D
AK: 1R
AZ: 5R, 4D --> R+1, D-1
AR: 4R
CA: 40D, 12R --> R+1, D-2
CO: 4D, 4R --> R+1, D-0
CT: 5D
DE: 1D
FL: 18R, 10D --> R+2, D-1
GA: 9R, 5D --> R+1, D-1
HI: 2D
ID: 2D
IL: 12D, 5R --> D-1, R+0
IN: 7R, 2D
IA: 4R --> R+1, D-1
KS: 3R, 1D
KY: 5R, 1D
LA: 5R, 1D
ME: 1D, 1R --> R+1, D-1
MD: 7D, 1R
MA: 9D
MI: 8R, 5D --> R+1, D-2
MN: 5R, 3D --> R+1, D-1
MS: 3R, 1D
MO: 6R, 2D
MT: 2R --> R+1, D-0
NE: 3R
NV: 2R, 2D --> R+1, D-1
NH: 1D, 1R --> R+1, D-1
NJ: 9D, 3R --> R+1, D-1
NM: 2D, 1R
NY: 18D, 8R --> D-1, R-0
NC: 10R, 4D --> R+2, D-1
ND: 1R
OH: 12R, 3D --> R+0, D-1
OK: 5R
OR: 4D, 2R --> R+1, D-0
PA: 11R, 6D --> R+2, D-3
RI: 2D
SC: 6R, 1D
SD: 1R
TN: 7R, 2D
TX: 25R, 13D --> R+2, D+0
UT: 4R
VA: 6D, 5R --> R+1, D-1
VT: 1D
WA: 6D, 4R --> R+1, D-1
WV: 2R --> R-1, D+0
WI: 6R, 2D --> R+1, D-1
WY: 1R

Republicans: 236 (+23)
Democrats: 199 (-23)
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,812
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: June 16, 2021, 11:02:40 AM »
« Edited: June 21, 2021, 03:07:01 PM by Ferguson97 »

Dems lose NE-02 to redistricting but manage to flip North Carolina.

Biden wins the popular vote by around 5%.

Logged
Agonized-Statism
Anarcho-Statism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,802


Political Matrix
E: -9.10, S: -5.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: June 21, 2021, 01:25:28 PM »


Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) / Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) ✓
Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) / Senator Tim Scott (R-SC)

Battle of the surrogates. I still think Hawley will go the distance to court a deteriorating Trump. Ignore the incumbent (I) next to Hawley's name on the EV bar, not sure how that got there.
Logged
DabbingSanta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,679
United States
P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: June 23, 2021, 10:38:34 AM »

Here's my base map for the presidential race, way too early to go into specifics.

Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.065 seconds with 12 queries.