Early 2024 Presidential Ratings + 2022
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May 07, 2021, 04:14:18 PM

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  Early 2024 Presidential Ratings + 2022
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Author Topic: Early 2024 Presidential Ratings + 2022  (Read 3070 times)
Western Democrat
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« Reply #25 on: April 03, 2021, 02:03:34 AM »
« edited: April 03, 2021, 09:25:17 AM by Western Democrat »

most likely result imo



just imo
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #26 on: April 03, 2021, 09:11:54 AM »



just imo
Seems legit.
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Orca
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« Reply #27 on: April 04, 2021, 12:01:55 PM »

My ratings:
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #28 on: April 04, 2021, 12:34:00 PM »

My ratings:



No
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Orca
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« Reply #29 on: April 04, 2021, 04:32:51 PM »

I think it's the most realistic outcome at the moment due to rust belt trends and other trends in general. I also think that AZ, GA, NC, and TX will have shifts to the left with TX probably being within 1 or 2 points. This would probably make more sense if I included margins but I don't know much about margins on this website. 
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #30 on: April 04, 2021, 09:51:27 PM »

I think it's the most realistic outcome at the moment due to rust belt trends and other trends in general. I also think that AZ, GA, NC, and TX will have shifts to the left with TX probably being within 1 or 2 points. This would probably make more sense if I included margins but I don't know much about margins on this website. 
I think thereís a good chance TX stays at about a Cornyn 2020 senate margin across the board with more suited Republican nominees.
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Orca
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« Reply #31 on: April 04, 2021, 10:38:50 PM »

I think it's the most realistic outcome at the moment due to rust belt trends and other trends in general. I also think that AZ, GA, NC, and TX will have shifts to the left with TX probably being within 1 or 2 points. This would probably make more sense if I included margins but I don't know much about margins on this website. 
I think thereís a good chance TX stays at about a Cornyn 2020 senate margin across the board with more suited Republican nominees.
That is highly unlikely. Texas has been shifting to the left fast for over a decade and shows no signs of slowing down in major metro areas like Houston and Dallas-Forth Worth.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #32 on: April 04, 2021, 10:46:40 PM »

I think it's the most realistic outcome at the moment due to rust belt trends and other trends in general. I also think that AZ, GA, NC, and TX will have shifts to the left with TX probably being within 1 or 2 points. This would probably make more sense if I included margins but I don't know much about margins on this website. 
I think thereís a good chance TX stays at about a Cornyn 2020 senate margin across the board with more suited Republican nominees.
That is highly unlikely. Texas has been shifting to the left fast for over a decade and shows no signs of slowing down in major metro areas like Houston and Dallas-Forth Worth.
It was 11 points to the right of the nation in 2016, in 2020 it was 10. Itís Has Slowed down a bit. Not saying TX wonít flip one day but it wonít come before other states flip towards the Republicans as well. The electoral college is unlikely to keep any party away from the 270 threshold.
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Orca
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« Reply #33 on: April 04, 2021, 11:24:15 PM »

Comparing it to the popular vote isn't an effective measure. The most effective measure is measuring by the actual state shifts. The only reason the shifts in Texas from 2016-2020 were less than 2012-2016 was due to Rio Grande shifts, and those counties can only shift so far to the right. The cities are getting bluer at a faster rate, not slower, and are the main driving forces in Texas going left, most likely meaning a blue Texas in either 2024 or 2028 (more likely 2028). It is undeniable that Texas is shifting to the left fast, and the main driving factors in that (DFW and Houston) will consistently help to make that the case. Texas shows no signs of halting its leftward trend, even with the help of Hispanics in regions like Rio Grande.
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David Hume
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« Reply #34 on: April 04, 2021, 11:46:22 PM »

GA isn't gonna vote D before WI and PA, and Bob Casey Jr is on the ballot in PA, if D's lose PA, the Election is over
A very popular president can help carry a senator, not the other way round.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #35 on: April 05, 2021, 02:17:11 AM »

GA isn't gonna vote D before WI and PA, and Bob Casey Jr is on the ballot in PA, if D's lose PA, the Election is over
A very popular president can help carry a senator, not the other way round.

What check the Election results PA WI and MI have gone D in every Election except for 2016/ and GA voted D once other than 2020/ 1992 for Prez check the Election results
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Southern Senator Spark
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« Reply #36 on: April 06, 2021, 11:49:26 AM »
« Edited: April 06, 2021, 12:09:36 PM by Southern Senator Spark »

Senate:



FLIPS: GA, PA, NH

Georgia: Collins 49%, Warnock 47%
Pennsylvania: Democrat 50%, Republican 48%
New Hampshire: Sununu 48%, Hassan 46%

Governor:



FLIPS:

Kansas: Schmidt 50%, Kelly 46%
Wisconsin: Duffy 50%, Evers 48%
New York: Someone Else 62%, Cuomo 38% (Cuomo in all likelihood does not win the primary)
Maryland: Democrat 51%, Rutherford 47%

House:

GOP +10

President:


Biden 50%, Republican 47%
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cringenat
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« Reply #37 on: April 15, 2021, 08:37:35 PM »
« Edited: April 15, 2021, 08:51:38 PM by cringenat »


50-48 Biden PV. Biden has a net approval rating between +3 and -2 leading up to election day, DeSantis or some other appreciable R gets the nom.
Black turnout and D support increases, making NC tighter, GA a touch bluer and PA/MI about the same.
DeSantis mostly maintains with Hispanics and Asians, gains with college whites where some GOP-voting memory is still fresh but has small but critical turnout losses among non-college whites. AZ and WI flip by the barest amount, NV decided by <1 point, margin improvements in TX and FL.
Biden reelected.
GOP slimly have both chambers.

Tilt = Decided by 0.01-2% margin
Lean = 2-6% margin
Likely = 6-9.99% margin
Safe = >10% margin
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #38 on: April 16, 2021, 08:33:27 AM »

WI isn't Lean R, Evers is leading in every poll in Gov race
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Laki
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« Reply #39 on: April 18, 2021, 04:05:40 AM »

Assuming Harris vs DeSantis

New Hampshire - D+5.8
Maine - D+4.9
New Mexico D+3.3
Minnesota D+2.5
Nevada D+2.2
Georgia - D+1.6
Michigan - D+1.1
Arizona - D+0.6
Wisconsin - R+0.2
Pennsylvania - R+1.6
North Carolina R+2.9
Alaska - R+3.7
Texas - R+4.8
Florida - R+9.3

Iowa, Colorado, Ohio and Virginia safe margin here. I also think if this scenario becomes true that Kansas will vote to the left of Iowa and perhaps Ohio.
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Laki
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« Reply #40 on: April 18, 2021, 04:09:41 AM »


Governor:



FLIPS:

Kansas: Schmidt 50%, Kelly 46%
Wisconsin: Duffy 50%, Evers 48%
New York: Someone Else 62%, Cuomo 38% (Cuomo in all likelihood does not win the primary)
Maryland: Democrat 51%, Rutherford 47%

If Cuomo becomes the nominee, Democrats deserve to lose, but I don't think he would lose re-election because braindead partisan voters will always back their party candidate no matter what.
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dw93
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« Reply #41 on: April 25, 2021, 11:07:42 PM »

Senate:



I can see it going anywhere from R+1 to D+3 honestly, most likely a wash to D+1 or D+2.

House:

Anywhere from D+5 to R+25. R+5-R+15 is the most likely scenario at this time  for the House IMHO.

Governorships:



WI and KS go Republican, GA goes D. NH depends on what Sununu does, if he runs it stays R, if not lean D. MA is the same in a sense that if Baker runs again, safe R, if not, lean D. PA and AZ are toss ups that could go either way and depend on a variety of factors. MI and NV are lean D as of now, but could change as time progresses.

President in 2024:



Biden announces he's not running for a 2nd term in the Spring of 2023 and Trump announces he's not running in early 2023 after a year and a half of hinting he might. Harris sails to the Democratic nomination and selects Governor Roy Cooper as her running mate. Ron DeSantis, with Trump's endorsement, emerges as the Republican nominee, defeating Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Nikki Haley, Rick Scott, and Larry Hogan. He chooses Senator Tim Scott as his running mate. Despite DeSantis narrowly flipping AZ and WI to the GOP, VP Harris, thanks to close wins in PA, Mi, GA, and her running mate's home state of North Carolina, wins the Presidential election, due to a good economy and the popularity of outgoing President Joe Biden. Despite this, the Republicans keep control of the House, while the Republicans net gains of two seats in the Senate.

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#Neoliberal Elitist Butte
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« Reply #42 on: May 06, 2021, 07:44:31 PM »
« Edited: Today at 11:33:01 AM by #Neoliberal Elitist Butte »

2022 (SEN)

Likely D: --
Lean D: GA
Toss-up: AZ, NV, NH, PA
Lean R: WI, NC
Likely R: FL

Everything else is non-competitive/safe.

2024 (PRES)

Likely D: NE-02, MN, NH, ME-AL, NM
Lean D: GA
Toss-up: WI, MI, PA, NC, AZ, NV
Lean R: --
Likely R: FL, TX, AK

Everything else is non-competitive/safe.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #43 on: Today at 11:06:31 AM »

2022 (SEN)

Likely D: --
Lean D: GA
Toss-up: AZ, NV, NH, PA
Lean R: WI, NC
Likely R: FL

Everything else is non-competitive/safe.

2024 (PRES)

Likely D: NE-02, MN, NH, ME-AL, NM
Lean D: GA
Toss-up: WI, MI, PA, NC, AZ
Lean R: --
Likely R: FL, TX, AK

Everything else is non-competitive/safe.
What about NV?
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#Neoliberal Elitist Butte
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« Reply #44 on: Today at 11:33:28 AM »


I missed that one, just added it.
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