|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 04, 2021, 03:40:20 AM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  Early 2024 Presidential Ratings + 2022
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Early 2024 Presidential Ratings + 2022  (Read 867 times)
AGA
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,621
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: -6.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 03, 2021, 11:46:47 AM »
« edited: February 11, 2021, 08:47:11 PM by AGA »

Logged
EastwoodS
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 546


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2021, 07:54:02 PM »

Thatís actually not bad for right now. That looks a lot like my map exactly at the moment
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2021, 10:42:15 PM »

I'd swap WI and PA for AZ and GA.
Logged
AGA
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,621
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: -6.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 11, 2021, 08:49:48 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2021, 09:01:25 PM by AGA »

Might as well post my 2022 ratings.

House: Lean R. PV of R+1 to D+1. Obviously can't post a map.

Senate


Governor (including VA and NJ)
Logged
Southern Senator Spark
Spark498
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,372
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: 1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2021, 12:30:45 PM »
« Edited: February 12, 2021, 12:35:02 PM by Southern Senator Spark »

Senate: Tilt D

https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/MwWgPM

Fetterman could very well win in PA due to Rs not selecting an effective nominee. If GOP does nominate someone who could appeal to suburbs, Fetterman is cooked.

House: Lean R

GOP outlook for House looks really good and they made some gains in 2020.

Governor: GOP majority
Logged
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 48,422
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2021, 02:33:15 PM »

Senate: Tilt D

https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/MwWgPM

Fetterman could very well win in PA due to Rs not selecting an effective nominee. If GOP does nominate someone who could appeal to suburbs, Fetterman is cooked.

House: Lean R

GOP outlook for House looks really good and they made some gains in 2020.

Governor: GOP majority


Lol the D's will hold onto Hose in a D 2.9 Election partisanshop iin 2022 isn't profound in midterms, the Sunbelt FL, TX and NC can still vote D in statewide elections due to Latino districts, that's why Ds won House in 2018

As long as Biden keeps renewing Unemployment checks, and stimulus he will be above 50
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,073


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 14, 2021, 05:47:33 PM »

Might as well post my 2022 ratings.

House: Lean R. PV of R+1 to D+1. Obviously can't post a map.

Senate


Governor (including VA and NJ)

Same but I say Nevada governor is tilt d and senate is lean d
Logged
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 48,422
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 16, 2021, 11:28:01 PM »

GA isn't gonna vote D before WI and PA, and Bob Casey Jr is on the ballot in PA, if D's lose PA, the Election is over
Logged
AGA
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,621
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: -6.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 19, 2021, 05:47:54 PM »

GA isn't gonna vote D before WI and PA, and Bob Casey Jr is on the ballot in PA, if D's lose PA, the Election is over

Casey can run ahead of the presidential nominee.
Logged
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 48,422
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 20, 2021, 12:44:17 AM »
« Edited: February 20, 2021, 12:51:15 AM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

Yeah and Brown can run ahead of Biden or Tim Ryan can too.

If we win PA in 2022, with Fetterman, we aren't losing PA in 2024

 Brown won while DeWine and OH isn't voting 9 pts to the right anymore, Trump is damaged goods in Ohio with three C's voting for D and Josh Mandal is weak

We will see when Polls come out

If Sununu doesn't run, against Maggie Hassan, NH is a D state
Logged
DabbingSanta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,078
Canada


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 20, 2021, 07:35:17 PM »

No tossups, just for fun. Smiley

2022 senate:



2022 governor:



2024 presidential:



Logged
Teflon Ron 2024
EEllis02
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 996
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -1.57

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2021, 06:13:43 PM »

!!!TOSSUPS INCLUDED!!!

2022 Ratings:

Governor:


  • Moved Texas from likely to lean after the power crisis; also due to potential for democrats to strongly overperform Lupe Valdez.
  • Moved South Dakota from lean to likely due to incumbency factor, but Noem's covid response and connections to Trump could make her slightly vulnerable.
  • Georgia is lean due to Abrams being favored over just about any republican nominee; but in this case, I'm assuming Kemp remains the republican nominee.

Senate:


  • Blunt seems to always win by a margin of less than 15%, and Missouri can be full of surprises sometimes, so I'm rating it as likely out of caution.

2024 Presidential Rating:


  • If I'm not confident in rating it one way or another, then it's a tossup. Simple as that.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,543
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2021, 08:37:30 AM »

  • Moved South Dakota from lean to likely due to incumbency factor, but Noem's covid response and connections to Trump could make her slightly vulnerable.

South Dakota just went Trump +26 while he campaigned on "reopening" while Noem has basically kept the state open. The idea that her "connections to Trump" are going to damage her a year and half from now is just... silly. At some point, we have to stop believing this issue-based poll results on issues like Covid when a large number of people nationwide (45-50%) are still clearly voting for Republicans who are not in favor of lockdowns and closures.
Logged
Calthrina950
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,299
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 25, 2021, 10:00:14 AM »
« Edited: February 25, 2021, 07:26:10 PM by Calthrina950 »

  • Moved South Dakota from lean to likely due to incumbency factor, but Noem's covid response and connections to Trump could make her slightly vulnerable.

South Dakota just went Trump +26 while he campaigned on "reopening" while Noem has basically kept the state open. The idea that her "connections to Trump" are going to damage her a year and half from now is just... silly. At some point, we have to stop believing this issue-based poll results on issues like Covid when a large number of people nationwide (45-50%) are still clearly voting for Republicans who are not in favor of lockdowns and closures.

Noem's approval ratings, from what I recall, have also remained well above water. Given these factors, and given that Billie Sutton-who was the strongest possible nominee for Democrats-still lost to Noem in a Democratic wave year, this race is Safe R. I think she will win by double digits at the minimum, and more realistically, probably will do so by a margin similar to Trump.
Logged
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 48,422
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: February 28, 2021, 11:25:36 AM »


Send map



Gov map





Prez map expanding battleground
Logged
АndriуValeriovich
andjey
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,243
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: 4.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: February 28, 2021, 02:28:06 PM »




VT, NH, MA are Safe R, assuming Scott, Sununu and Baker run again

Logged
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 48,422
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: February 28, 2021, 04:00:56 PM »

New York Express maps aren't D at all
Logged
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,357
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: February 28, 2021, 06:53:29 PM »


I haven't posted in this thread yet, but now that you mention it...

Logged
JoeInator still needs to try a burrito!
JoeInator
Rookie
**
Posts: 188
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: February 28, 2021, 09:02:14 PM »

2022 Senate:


2021 and 2022 Governors:


2024 Presidential:
Logged
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 48,422
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: March 01, 2021, 05:54:01 AM »
« Edited: March 01, 2021, 04:17:22 PM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

Biden is at 52% approvals, the outparty only gain seats in Midterms if they are at 44% like Obama in 2009 had 11% Unemployment, users think it's gonna be a bloodbath for D's, which it won't be

Evers is leading in WI 45/44 and Ron Johnson is at 35% it will flip with PA

Order of likelihood that Seats will flip
47 NV CCM no R challenge
48 AZ Kelly won't lose unless it's an R 5 Environment like in 2014
49 NH Hassan isn't that Vulnerable, Sununu is tied with her
50 PA D flip
51 WI D flip Johnson is DoA
52 GA Runoff
If it's a neutral cycle 52 seats
53 NC D flip open
54 OH D flip open
Probably won't flip without a tsunami after OH
55 MO D flipBlunt is at 39% and Sifton is same as Jackson, second inc that will lose
56 IA Grassley might retire
57 FL Rubio of course if Crist runs its the 55th seat
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.057 seconds with 12 queries.