What would Texas have been IF

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Who would have won Texas and what would the margin have been if:
1) Biden gets Obama 2012 margins in the Rio Grande Region
2) Trump gets McCain 2008 margins in the ruby red rural Texas
3) All other margins remain the same as 2020
*Assuming raw vote amount is same as 2020 in all counties, only change the margin

I plan on trying to calculate it this weekend, but if anyone knows it would be much appreciated!

[It's Time.]

not enough to win, the suburban shifts weren't enough.

[redjohn]

1. Obama netted 92,877 votes in the Rio Grande valley in 2012 (D+92,877)
2. If you exclude major metro areas in 2008 (Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio) and the Rio Grande valley, McCain netted 727,135 votes in 2008 (R+634,258)
3. The above metro areas in 2020 netted Biden 440,345 votes (R+193,913)

So, even if you don't adjust 2008 & 2012 for their much lower turnout than 2020, Republicans still win pretty comfortably. If you adjust the non-metro areas in 2008 to 2020 turnout, it becomes even less close.

[Motorcity]

What if Biden got Obama levels of support with blacks, hispanics, white people, and rural areas? But got 2020 levels of support with suburbs and white women.

Basically combine all the voting peaks for every demographic from 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020.

[It's Time.]

What if Biden got Obama levels of support with blacks, hispanics, white people, and rural areas? But got 2020 levels of support with suburbs and white women.

Basically combine all the voting peaks for every demographic from 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020.

Biden probably beat Obama's performance among white Texans.

[Chips]

not enough to win, the suburban shifts weren't enough.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

HEGAR was a poor candidate to win TX that's as simple as that

[Stranger in a strange land]

Texas has a lot of rural areas, and they're VERY Republican, but they're also very sparsely populated and aren't the main reason why it's Red.