NYT: Very Detailed Map of 2020 Election (Incomplete)

[H. Ross Peron]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/upshot/2020-election-map.html

Important to note this map is incomplete with several states being incomplete or even blank.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol the swing map of rural MN

[KaiserDave]

Wonderful! Thank you!

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Very cool.

[AGA]

Those swings in New Square, NY!

EDIT: In case anyone is too lazy to find it, one of the precincts had a 193-point R swing.

[Kamala's side hoe]

First thing I noticed was how fewer precincts in Portland proper and Metro Portland swung R compared to Seattle proper and Metro Seattle. The handful of precincts in Portland proper that swung R are all east of 82nd Ave- the really Trumpy one in Centennial near Gresham swung 8 points R and was only Biden +8!

The R swings in Seattle’s University District and east of I-5 from Rainier Valley southward are pretty interesting. The contrast between the “Chinese” and “Vietnamese” parts of the International District  was noteworthy- “Little Saigon” swung R by 16 points but was still 83% D. There were also some pretty dramatic R swings in a few Renton/Kent precincts that didn’t happen in analogous Portland suburbs. 

Also there may have been a modest R swing in the Latino heavy parts of Eastern Washington, but I’m not familiar enough with where exactly in the Yakima valley the Mexicans live. If there was it wasn’t obvious like in Harris TX, Los Angeles CA, or Orange CA.

[Gracile]

You can see the effects of 2016 third-party voters swinging to Biden in urban precincts in cities like Portland and Seattle (and to a lesser extent Chicago and NYC).

[VAR]

Found a Trump +99 precinct (swung from 72-22 to 27-72) in Hialeah. Swings in the 20s, 30s, or 40s more typical.

A precinct around Denver swung 119 points to Biden. Trump won it 56-37 in 2016 but Biden won it 100-0.

[Crumpets]

Some things that immediately jump out:

- Some military-heavy areas swung heavily to Biden (expected), but some seem to have stayed pretty much exactly the same. I wonder what the differences are.

- Ditto Native reservations.

- Russian-American voters appear to have swung heavily to Trump.

- The precinct containing Mar-a-Lago swung 4.8 points to the Dems.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Found a Trump +99 precinct (swung from 72-22 to 27-72) in Hialeah. Swings in the 20s, 30s, or 40s more typical.

A precinct around Denver swung 119 points to Biden. Trump won it 56-37 in 2016 but Biden won it 100-0.

A precinct in Jackson, MS swung 97 points to Biden. Trump won it 68-30 and Biden 79-20.

[Crumpets]

Trump won Ni'ihau (the westernmost Hawaiian island) unanimously, 43-0. Trump only got 59% there in 2016.

[Alben Barkley]

Nice to see. Despite my problems with NYT, the 2016 version of this map was a very useful resource. And they seem to have this out a lot quicker this time.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

A precinct in Rural NW Montana swung 88 points to Trump. Clinton won it 57-36 and Trump 83-16.

[Idaho Conservative]

Found a Trump +99 precinct (swung from 72-22 to 27-72) in Hialeah. Swings in the 20s, 30s, or 40s more typical.

A precinct around Denver swung 119 points to Biden. Trump won it 56-37 in 2016 but Biden won it 100-0.

what's the population of it?

[ProudModerate2]

Surprised to see all that blue in Mississippi.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Wow, there were 10-20 point R swings in Saint Paul, MN. The R swings were in more heavily Asian areas (Hmong + maybe Vietnamese and Chinese?)

[Crumpets]

Kiryas Joel, NY, an outlier in pretty much every category, continues to have amazing results.

2008: McCain wins with 90+% of the vote
2012: Romney wins by around 10 points
2016: Trump wins by around 10 points
2020: Trump wins with close to 100% of the vote

This is an overwhelmingly Yiddish-speaking, Satmar Hasidic Jewish, and heavily impoverished area.

[ProgressiveModerate]

There's a large collection of precincts in Williamsburg, Brooklyn, that swung 60+ points to Trump. It's crazy.

[prag_prog]

God Bless NYT just for Upshot alone...their election related data viz is just freaking amazing

[It’s so Joever]

The colonizing of Highlands Ranch is almost complete. We are getting there, soon it will be our stronghold. God bless the Denver Empire.

[Skill and Chance]

East Tennessee sticks out as having surprising pro-Biden swings vs. other rural/small city areas in that part of the country. 

[tagimaucia]

There's a large collection of precincts in Williamsburg, Brooklyn, that swung 60+ points to Trump. It's crazy.

That must be the Satmar Hasidic Jewish section of Williamsburg.  One funny thing about that particular group, is I believe they are very fiercely anti-Zionist/Israel (?).  They even usually have some representation at pro-Palestinian rallies in NYC. 

But I guess they are so right wing / socially conservative culturally that they still vote very Republican-- I also assume that backlash to covid restrictions also played a large part in why the pro-Trump swing was so massive, but I'm just guessing.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Trump won Ni'ihau (the westernmost Hawaiian island) unanimously, 43-0. Trump only got 59% there in 2016.

Looking at the HI precincts in more detail, the size of the R swing in a precinct seems more strongly correlated with the Filipino percentage than any other racial or ethnic group. This is also true on the county level, in that the counties that swung R the most happen to have higher proportions of Filipinos and higher median household incomes.

Hawaii County barely swung R, and it happens to be the most white, most NHPI, least Asian, and lowest median household income county (excluding Kalawao of course).

I find it interesting that Hawaii County (Big Island) swung a lot less toward 45 than the other counties. Hawaii County has the lowest Asian percentage and the highest White, Latino, NHPI, and Multiracial percentages out of the 4 HI counties with over 100 people.

The pro-incumbent swing seems negatively correlated with the NHPI percentage in each county, but doesn’t seem positively correlated with any one racial group. Honolulu County (O’ahu, majority of population) is the most Asian and has the most diverse Asian population, but swung marginally less than Maui County and quite a bit less than Kauai County. It seems like the swings outside Honolulu County basically canceled each other out.  

[Alcibiades]

Kiryas Joel, NY, an outlier in pretty much every category, continues to have amazing results.

2008: McCain wins with 90+% of the vote
2012: Romney wins by around 10 points
2016: Trump wins by around 10 points
2020: Trump wins with close to 100% of the vote

This is an overwhelmingly Yiddish-speaking, Satmar Hasidic Jewish, and heavily impoverished area.

I can only assume with those literally North Korean margins that the rabbis instructed everyone to vote Trump this time, whereas they made no intervention in 2016.

[DabbingSanta]

Kiryas Joel has an extensive history of voter fraud spanning decades.  It is basically a religious cult.
There's a whole section about fraud on the town's Wikipedia article.  People who don't vote for their selected candidates are banned from the church and threatened with violence.  Poll watchers are chased out of town.  Back in 2014 or so I watched a documentary on the town and the friction they have with neighboring towns.  Kiryas Joel is super overcrowded and needs to expand, but they're sort of trapped with the space they have.  The people of Monroe don't want them to encroach on their town, and it's caused a conflict that has lasted over 30 years.  It really feels like something from another part of the world, and the topic alone is probably worthy of its own thread.