NYT: Very Detailed Map of 2020 Election (Incomplete)

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Ethnic enclaves aren't representative of immigrant-nonwhite groups as a whole, but yeah that is not a good look for the Democrats at any level.

[Wormless Gourd]

Some notes
- the most conservative precincts(60-70% dem) of SF are overwhelmingly in chinese neighborhoods and the most conservative is in the heart of the tenderloin(swung 37 points rightward since 2016!) which is a sign of the times for SF if anything else is
- seems like urban white non-college areas had some big swings to trump; norridge, canaryville and mt greenwood in chicago had big trump swings, ditto for NE philly and southeast brooklyn, among others. not sure what prompted this/why they weren't very R before
- trump doing better in scant few and random moneyed white areas; north queens(not sure what this ones about), west hollywood, beverly hills
- NYCers fleeing covid for long island secondary homes is my current running theory, based on the deep blue swing of the hamptons and the one-sided increase in dem turnout
- atlanta's ring of deep blue suburban swings are nearly all double digits, plenty +20-30% leftward
- NW arkansas and NW mississippi are very bright blue spots of dem improvement, unexpectedly
- just about every city of note in WV got bluer, as did nearly all of far western montana
- the crow tribe of montana endorsed trump this year and it seemed there was some improvements though not outright victory in the crow reservation within big horn county, when most reservations elsewhere swung hard for joe

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lol the swing map of rural MN

Why? It seems pretty sporadic and has tons of areas swinging in both directions.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Ethnic enclaves aren't representative of immigrant-nonwhite groups as a whole, but yeah that is not a good look for the Democrats at any level.

It's surprising because Trump managed to make the swings, not because the swings are themselves yet indicative of mass realignment of minorities (they aren't). By and large, Republicans have yet to push past the low range of performances they've been getting throughout most minority-heavy urban areas for the past 25-30 years. The only minority-heavy region in which Trump managed to genuinely exceed Bush 2004's performance, the most recent "highwater mark" for Republicans in an era of Democratic minority dominance, is in the rural RGV counties (yes, he still noticeably underperformed Bush in the urban RGV). Even his incredible Miami-Dade County performance took things up to exactly Bush 2004 levels.

If Republicans did manage to get on the trajectory of dealigning minority groups away from the Democrats, 2020 could indeed be considered what one would expect as a first step. But they need to actually prove they can take it further than that before they can be declared out of the hole. Democrats obviously can't take it for granted that they will continue crushing it with minorities without exerting any effort, but the swings we did witness were hardly catastrophic (outside of Miami-Dade) or irreversible.

[Hope For A New Era]

Utah is pretty remarkable. Four D precincts in Provo.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Pittsburgh's swings looks like a Jackson Pollock

[Skill and Chance]

Some notes
- the most conservative precincts(60-70% dem) of SF are overwhelmingly in chinese neighborhoods and the most conservative is in the heart of the tenderloin(swung 37 points rightward since 2016!) which is a sign of the times for SF if anything else is
- seems like urban white non-college areas had some big swings to trump; norridge, canaryville and mt greenwood in chicago had big trump swings, ditto for NE philly and southeast brooklyn, among others. not sure what prompted this/why they weren't very R before
- trump doing better in scant few and random moneyed white areas; north queens(not sure what this ones about), west hollywood, beverly hills
- NYCers fleeing covid for long island secondary homes is my current running theory, based on the deep blue swing of the hamptons and the one-sided increase in dem turnout
- atlanta's ring of deep blue suburban swings are nearly all double digits, plenty +20-30% leftward
- NW arkansas and NW mississippi are very bright blue spots of dem improvement, unexpectedly
- just about every city of note in WV got bluer, as did nearly all of far western montana
- the crow tribe of montana endorsed trump this year and it seemed there was some improvements though not outright victory in the crow reservation within big horn county, when most reservations elsewhere swung hard for joe

This is interesting.  Memphis is not the city I would have expected to have a massive pro-Biden suburban swing.

[Horus]

Some notes
- the most conservative precincts(60-70% dem) of SF are overwhelmingly in chinese neighborhoods and the most conservative is in the heart of the tenderloin(swung 37 points rightward since 2016!) which is a sign of the times for SF if anything else is
- seems like urban white non-college areas had some big swings to trump; norridge, canaryville and mt greenwood in chicago had big trump swings, ditto for NE philly and southeast brooklyn, among others. not sure what prompted this/why they weren't very R before
- trump doing better in scant few and random moneyed white areas; north queens(not sure what this ones about), west hollywood, beverly hills
- NYCers fleeing covid for long island secondary homes is my current running theory, based on the deep blue swing of the hamptons and the one-sided increase in dem turnout
- atlanta's ring of deep blue suburban swings are nearly all double digits, plenty +20-30% leftward
- NW arkansas and NW mississippi are very bright blue spots of dem improvement, unexpectedly
- just about every city of note in WV got bluer, as did nearly all of far western montana
- the crow tribe of montana endorsed trump this year and it seemed there was some improvements though not outright victory in the crow reservation within big horn county, when most reservations elsewhere swung hard for joe

This is interesting.  Memphis is not the city I would have expected to have a massive pro-Biden suburban swing.

DeSoto county is experiencing a lot of spillover from Memphis, Dems picked up a state house seat there in 2019.

[Tintrlvr]

Does anybody know anything about that beautifully blue precinct in Staten Island south of the expressway? It sticks out like a blueberry in a bowl of tomato soup. Zoom in and it's to the southwest of the Dongan Hills neighborhood. Biden won it by 57 points!

It's a public housing project, which in NYC means mostly minority, in contrast to the mostly white surroundings.

[swf541]

A few things I’ve noticed:

I didn’t realise how uniformly strong the D swing was throughout Maryland.

The swings in parts of eastern Arkansas rivalled those of the RGV and Cuban areas of Miami.

Trump still won many of the ultra-rich coastal areas in South Florida (with some even swinging towards him), including the precinct containing Mar-a-Lago.

Yea the MD swings shocked me, I expected my area to swing but not by that much (Washington County, especially referring to Hagerstown and the area surrounding it).

[Wormless Gourd]

i wanted to mention itt that there are some issues with the map people have pointed out i wanted to give warning for if youre depending on this as an election resource, even if it is a WIP(i still love using it)
- all of MD's vote swings are calculated with incomplete 2016 data so it's "too blue" and the D swing is over-calculated
- this is also the case for a handful of counties in other states, that published all vote types by precinct this year, but not in 2016, or vice versa
- some states(NY particularly) compare 2020 precinct results to 2016 township/municipality-wide results and produce wonky results, like in/near Niagara Falls, where 54-41 Clinton citywide is used as the 2016 result instead of precinct data from that year, so you have ghost +72 D swings in minority-heavy parts of the city
- the map generally doesn't account for redrawn precincts very well, and in a lot of cases calculated swings for precincts that shared the same name in 2016 and 2020 but that name may have been assigned to an altogether different precinct between the two elections

upshot's github that mentions some of the map's issues i mentioned
https://github.com/TheUpshot/presidential-precinct-map-2020

[Gracile]

One of the more interesting precinct results is this precinct in Evanston that "swung Republican" despite Donald Trump getting zero votes-



This is true mathematically as it went from 89% Democratic to 2.9% Republican in 2016 to 85.7% Democratic to 0% Republican in 2020. However, the explanation behind this is that there were only 14 voters at this precinct this year. The breakdown was 12 Biden voters, 1 Jorgensen voter, and 1 Hawkins voter (interestingly an increased third-party vote share from 2016 as well) - compared to over a hundred in 2016. This precinct includes part of Northwestern University, so it is possible that students not being on campus contributed to this big drop. Either way, it is still an interesting result and shows how sparsely populated precincts can create electorally strange results.

[Non Swing Voter]

LOL - Maryland's swing.  Especially the outer suburbs.

[Mr. Illini]

- trump doing better in scant few and random moneyed white areas; north queens(not sure what this ones about), west hollywood, beverly hills

This is bizarre to me. Wealthy communities in Chicago, New York, Washington, had little to no movement either way, while similar communities in LA had strong Republican swings. Why?

[H. Ross Peron]

- trump doing better in scant few and random moneyed white areas; north queens(not sure what this ones about), west hollywood, beverly hills

This is bizarre to me. Wealthy communities in Chicago, New York, Washington, had little to no movement either way, while similar communities in LA had strong Republican swings. Why?

West Hollywood isn't "wealthy" whereas Beverly Hills is heavily immigrant (Persian Jews) and not comparable to most moneyed white areas.

[Alcibiades]

- trump doing better in scant few and random moneyed white areas; north queens(not sure what this ones about), west hollywood, beverly hills

This is bizarre to me. Wealthy communities in Chicago, New York, Washington, had little to no movement either way, while similar communities in LA had strong Republican swings. Why?

The strangest example of that was Trump somehow getting into the 60s in the Park Cities in Dallas.

[Gracile]

- trump doing better in scant few and random moneyed white areas; north queens(not sure what this ones about), west hollywood, beverly hills

This is bizarre to me. Wealthy communities in Chicago, New York, Washington, had little to no movement either way, while similar communities in LA had strong Republican swings. Why?

Eyeballing it, Trump actually did improve mildly in a few wealthy precincts in the Near North Side/Loop areas. Of course, the overall trend was pretty small.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Seminole County Swing Map is definitely broken.

[Mr. Illini]

- trump doing better in scant few and random moneyed white areas; north queens(not sure what this ones about), west hollywood, beverly hills

This is bizarre to me. Wealthy communities in Chicago, New York, Washington, had little to no movement either way, while similar communities in LA had strong Republican swings. Why?

Eyeballing it, Trump actually did improve mildly in a few wealthy precincts in the Near North Side/Loop areas. Of course, the overall trend was pretty small.

Much smaller than if you look at similar areas of LA. In fact, the LA metro in general had a much broader swing to Trump than other big metros. Maybe the result of a larger Latino population?

[Crumpets]

Most of PA just got added. Interestingly, the differences in the swing between the PA-OH border are a lot less obvious on the precinct level, but the differences along the PA-MD border are very stark.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The California update can't come soon enough.

I'm kind of curious why, between the NY Times & LA Times precinct maps, we've only gotten results from San Francisco, Ventura, San Diego, LA & OC

[Alcibiades]

Most of PA just got added. Interestingly, the differences in the swing between the PA-OH border are a lot less obvious on the precinct level, but the differences along the PA-MD border are very stark.

Interesting that despite the #trends of the last few years, rural SWPA is still clearly less Republican than rural central PA.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

First thing I noticed was how fewer precincts in Portland proper and Metro Portland swung R compared to Seattle proper and Metro Seattle. The handful of precincts in Portland proper that swung R are all east of 82nd Ave- the really Trumpy one in Centennial near Gresham swung 8 points R and was only Biden +8!

Statistical Atlas says this super-Trumpy Multnomah County tract is relatively racially diverse- 54% White, 19% Latino, 12% Black, 10% Asian, and 5% Mixed/Other. The "53% Biden-45% Trump" Portland side of the tract is 70-79% White and 17% Asian (mostly Laotian, Filipino, and Burmese).

The Portland neighborhoods with higher concentrations of Vietnamese residents don't correspond to NYT precincts that "swung towards Trump". The two most Vietnamese neighborhoods (Madison-South near the I-84/I-205 junction and Pleasant Valley in the southeast corner of Portland proper) both swung slightly towards Biden, although Madison-South was significantly more D.

The R swings in Seattle’s University District and east of I-5 from Rainier Valley southward are pretty interesting. The contrast between the “Chinese” and “Vietnamese” parts of the International District  was noteworthy- “Little Saigon” swung R by 16 points but was still 83% D. There were also some pretty dramatic R swings in a few Renton/Kent precincts that didn’t happen in analogous Portland suburbs.

 

The slight U-District R swing doesn't tell you anything useful about how the 2016 college student voters voted in 2020, because they would have graduated and moved away since.

The South Seattle precincts that had bigger R "swings" generally seem to have higher concentrations of ethnic Chinese (Beacon Hill is over 30% Chinese?) or Vietnamese. The "swings" don't seem as correlated with East African, Mexican, or even Filipino presence.

The R swings in Renton seem mildly correlated with Chinese/Vietnamese/Filipino presence, although they probably weren't just due to Asians. The Southeast Kent precinct that almost flipped to Trump looks like it's centered on a mall?

Bellevue- The seemingly random 5-10 point R shifts (as opposed to 1-5 point R) appear to be in areas where Vietnamese people live. Conversely, the areas that "swung" 5-10 points D (mostly east of I-405 and in between SR-520 and I-90) seem to be less White and less Asian than the city as a whole.

Fun Fact: Apparently Bellevue is now slightly more Indian (10.9%) than Chinese (10.5%)- not sure when the ancestry data was last updated. The Indian and Chinese ethnoburbs are on opposite ends of the city.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Does anyone know what is happening with that random blue precinct in West Virginia just next to the most Republican part of the state in the northeast? Is that some sort of Appalachian ski resort?

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone know what is happening with that random blue precinct in West Virginia just next to the most Republican part of the state in the northeast? Is that some sort of Appalachian ski resort?

Yes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canaan_Valley_Resort_State_Park