Did Biden have a "home state" advantage in both Pennsylvania and Maryland?

[Alben Barkley]

It kinda seems like he did. Both of these states seemed to be largely immune to basically all pro-Trump trends that affected demographically similar places throughout the rest of the nation. Trump had an underwhelming performance in rural areas in both states compared to 2016, and compared to the rest of the nation where he mostly did just as well or better in rural areas. Indeed, Biden outright flipped some rural Republican strongholds in Maryland such as Talbot County. And in Pennsylvania, WWC voters in counties like Lackawanna and Erie did not seem nearly as impressed by Trump as their demographically similar neighbors in Ohio, in places like the Clinton-Trump Mahoning County, did. Urban areas such as Baltimore and (to a slightly lesser extent) Philadelphia also did not really move an inch towards Trump, while he saw at least slight gains in similar urban areas in most of the country. He also lost ground in Pittsburgh -- a city that's a good blend of WWC, college whites, and minorities.

There may be other explanations for this than a home state/region effect, but it simply can't be overlooked that both of these states border and have close demographic and cultural ties to Delaware. Obviously if there was such an effect, it was especially critical in Pennsylvania. And while it's true Biden underperformed polls there, he didn't underperform them nearly as much as he did in Michigan and Wisconsin, states where Trump largely held strong in rural/WWC areas, matched or overperformed expectations in most urban areas, and essentially only lost because of suburban trends against him. But those suburban trends just seemed even more dramatic in MD and PA.

If this is true, I think it's probably the most persuasive evidence that ONLY Biden could have beaten Trump. There was no other candidate running who had the same strong cultural and demographic ties to this region. (No, Joe Sestak does not count.) That means Biden may have been the only candidate who could have won PA. Add on top of that the fact that Biden's ties to Obama and established, moderate image probably enabled him to narrowly win GA and AZ, and the case only gets stronger.

[MRS. MEE SUM CHU]

Urban areas such as Baltimore and (to a slightly lesser extent) Philadelphia also did not really move an inch towards Trump, while he saw at least slight gains in similar urban areas in most of the country.

What are you talking about? Philadelphia swung towards Trump both times.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-frost-belt-and-sun-belt-illustrate-the-complexity-of-americas-urban-rural-divide/

[Alben Barkley]

Urban areas such as Baltimore and (to a slightly lesser extent) Philadelphia also did not really move an inch towards Trump, while he saw at least slight gains in similar urban areas in most of the country.

What are you talking about? Philadelphia swung towards Trump both times.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-frost-belt-and-sun-belt-illustrate-the-complexity-of-americas-urban-rural-divide/

How did I know that this would be the first thing people would latch onto despite the fact that I clearly included a caveat emphasizing the relative nature of this, and did not claim that Philly didn't swing at all towards Trump?

Let's just take the demographically similar Queens, NY as an example off the top of my head: That swung 8 points towards Trump between 2016 and 2020 while Philly only swung 4 points towards him. In other words, the swing was TWICE as large. And similar trends were found in most of the nation. Except a place like Baltimore, which swung a few points AWAY from Trump. As noted, Pittsburgh also swung away from him.
 
The entire point of my post was that even where Trump did better in these states relative to 2016, it wasn't AS MUCH better as he did in similar places across the nation in 2020. Philly is just one of many examples I cited, and indeed if anything is the single weakest demonstration of this phenomenon. Yet it still holds up if you compare it to similar places in other states.

Can we please not get bogged down focusing on minutia like this and stick to the larger, overall point?

Thanks.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Yes he does, he helped Obama win PA as well, that's why he helped not only the 278 blue wall but the 291 blue wall

[Roblox]

I think he did in places like the eastern shore and the scranton/Wilkes Barre area.

[Calthrina950]

There were some rural counties in Pennsylvania (i.e. Greene, Elk), that were once Democratic strongholds a century or so ago, where Trump improved compared to 2016. And as has been noted, Trump did improve in Philadelphia as well. However, on balance, I do think Biden had somewhat of a "home state" advantage in Pennsylvania, which particularly helped him in Lackawanna County, the Philadelphia suburbs, Allegheny County, and Erie County.

[It's Time.]

Biden matched the RCP average of PA while Clinton underperformed it by 3%, so maybe.

[Chips]

Maybe a little.