If the 2020 electorate were exactly the same as the 2016 electorate, who wins?

[ProgressiveModerate]

The 2016 election was quite close, and some argue in some places high turnout helped Trump.

[Catalyst138]

High turnout did help Trump but mostly in the places that didn’t matter, like Florida and Texas. I would say that Biden’s victories in MI, WI, PA, and GA were mostly caused by higher turnout on the Democratic side, rather than swing voters.

[Bootes Void]

Trump probably benefited from higher turnout in the northern states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa etc, however Biden did do better with swing voters to improve over the 2016 performance.

Trump probably benefited from higher turnout in Florida and maybe NC with some of the swing voters shifting towards him Infact.

AZ, Texas and Nevada was a wash

[It's Time.]

It would be the same but AZ and GA would flip because of demographics.

PV would be D+5 or so, because high turnout helped trump in NYC, CA, FL, TX, etc.

Midwest would be bluer, as would places like Miami-Dade, RGV, NYC, CA.

[Chips]

It would be the same but AZ and GA would flip because of demographics.

PV would be D+5 or so, because high turnout helped trump in NYC, CA, FL, TX, etc.

Midwest would be bluer, as would places like Miami-Dade, RGV, NYC, CA.

[Annatar]

Trump, the AP exit polls had 15% of voters not having voted in 2016 and they broke by a 14% margin for Biden, these are mostly voters who age into the electorate, that is a 2.1% margin, if Trump did 2.1% better everywhere he would have won the election. The 85% that voted in 2016 voted for Biden by 2% implying there were as many Trump Biden voters as there were Clinton Trump voters with 3rd party voters breaking evenly.

In WI for example which was the tipping point state, 88% said they voted in 2016 and they broke for Trump 50-49, of the 12% who were new voters, Biden won them by 15% hence winning the state narrowly, in all the close states without new voters coming into the electorate Trump would have won.