2020 Election if Biden won the PV by as much as Obama 2012
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Author Topic: 2020 Election if Biden won the PV by as much as Obama 2012  (Read 458 times)
It's Time.
Oregon Eagle Politics
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« on: January 29, 2021, 04:41:09 PM »
If we apply a 0.59% R Uniform Swing from 2020 so that Biden won the PV by as much as Obama, Biden would win the EC 279-259.

The Tipping-Point State would be Wisconsin, which Biden would win by 0.04%, or roughly 1300 votes. In other words, 2000 election redux.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2021, 08:33:50 PM »
Hmmm... interesting and scary.
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2021, 09:24:49 PM »
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2021, 09:53:00 PM »
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2021, 09:54:24 PM »
And if it was 0.1% less....Really a 2000 redux with another GOP likely House win.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2021, 10:33:57 PM »
Quote from: Chips on January 29, 2021, 09:54:24 PM
And if it was 0.1% less....Really a 2000 redux with another GOP likely House win.

Even though the House was close in seats, the tipping point was D + 2.2 I believe, the GOP just got lucky in a bunch of very very close races.
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: January 29, 2021, 10:39:58 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on January 29, 2021, 10:33:57 PM
Quote from: Chips on January 29, 2021, 09:54:24 PM
And if it was 0.1% less....Really a 2000 redux with another GOP likely House win.

Even though the House was close in seats, the tipping point was D + 2.2 I believe, the GOP just got lucky in a bunch of very very close races.

I meant a 269-269 tie House win. Trump would probably have the support of 26 or 27 states.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2021, 10:42:44 PM »
Quote from: Chips on January 29, 2021, 10:39:58 PM
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on January 29, 2021, 10:33:57 PM
Quote from: Chips on January 29, 2021, 09:54:24 PM
And if it was 0.1% less....Really a 2000 redux with another GOP likely House win.

Even though the House was close in seats, the tipping point was D + 2.2 I believe, the GOP just got lucky in a bunch of very very close races.

I meant a 269-269 tie House win. Trump would probably have the support of 26 or 27 states.

Oops sorry, yes, in that case, Trump would likely win the election.
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