WY-AL - McLaughlin/Save America (R): Liz Cheney trails in H2H matchups and a three-way primary

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000177-467b-da54-a9ff-f6fb0a540000

January 25-26
"republican primary voters" subsample of 500 likely general election voters
MoE: 4.4% for full sample of 500

Cheney vs Anthony Bouchard vs Chuck Gray
Bouchard 28%
Cheney 21%
Gray 17%

Cheney vs Bouchard
Bouchard 54%
Cheney 21%

Cheney vs Gray
Gray 55%
Cheney 20%

This is where the 10% figure comes from:
"It is clear, Wyoming voters are going to hold Cheney accountable on the ballot. Only 13% of
general election voters would vote to re-elect Cheney. Her re-elect score drops to 10% among Republicans and 6% among Trump voters." N.B. Republicans and Republican primary voters are different subsamples.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1050097513305391109

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1053815545240289281

[Astatine]

😃😃😃😃 Tiltsworld keeps entering these bad polls

[Gracile]

McLaughlin, so obviously grains of salt apply. That said, I would not be surprised if Cheney proves to be vulnerable in a primary.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

😃😃😃😃 Tiltsworld keeps entering these bad polls

I take them much less seriously in determining my ratings but with comparatively few out, I don't mind sinking a little bit of time into this trash.

I actually consider McLaughlin to be one of the better pollsters out there. At least they're honest enough to put their purpose in their name.

[Hope For A New Era]

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000177-467b-da54-a9ff-f6fb0a540000

January 25-26
"republican primary voters" subsample of 500 likely general election voters
MoE: 4.4% for full sample of 500

Cheney vs Anthony Bouchard vs Chuck Gray
Bouchard 28%
Cheney 21%
Gray 17%

Cheney vs Bouchard
Bouchard 54%
Cheney 21%

Cheney vs Gray
Gray 55%
Cheney 20%

This is where the 10% figure comes from:
"It is clear, Wyoming voters are going to hold Cheney accountable on the ballot. Only 13% of
general election voters would vote to re-elect Cheney. Her re-elect score drops to 10% among Republicans and 6% among Trump voters." N.B. Republicans and Republican primary voters are different subsamples.

Looks like it's time for Wyoming Democrats to adopt the Utah strategy!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000177-467b-da54-a9ff-f6fb0a540000

January 25-26
"republican primary voters" subsample of 500 likely general election voters
MoE: 4.4% for full sample of 500

Cheney vs Anthony Bouchard vs Chuck Gray
Bouchard 28%
Cheney 21%
Gray 17%

Cheney vs Bouchard
Bouchard 54%
Cheney 21%

Cheney vs Gray
Gray 55%
Cheney 20%

This is where the 10% figure comes from:
"It is clear, Wyoming voters are going to hold Cheney accountable on the ballot. Only 13% of
general election voters would vote to re-elect Cheney. Her re-elect score drops to 10% among Republicans and 6% among Trump voters." N.B. Republicans and Republican primary voters are different subsamples.

Looks like it's time for Wyoming Democrats to adopt the Utah strategy!

Why? To my knowledge, Liz Cheney has not been an aisle-crosser or dealmaker on any issue Democrats tend to value besides impeachment and the Trump election challenge. Even there, I suspect her motivations might have been political rivalry rather than defence of democracy as she has repeatedly supported authoritarian measures before and has plenty of other reasons to be hostile towards Trump. All this is to say her presence (instead of Generic  Firebreather) is not necessarily of net benefit.

Romney is much better, the Senate is a more finely balanced chamber to begin with and I'm not sure Democrats should want House Republicans to have potentially competent leadership (Cheney would probably be a lot better at the job than McCarthy).

In any case, 'the Utah strategy' may soon be outdated (in the next Republican presidency) if Democrats are prepared to run pro-life candidates there.