Texas 2022 megathread

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/GovAbbott/status/1369822393678594061?s=20

Starting to seem less and less likely he gets re-elected, especially if he can't even hold onto hardcore conservatives now.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://twitter.com/GovAbbott/status/1369822393678594061?s=20
Starting to seem less and less likely he gets re-elected, especially if he can't even hold onto hardcore conservatives now.

Starting to think you're weighing stuff nearly two years out way too heavily.

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/GovAbbott/status/1369822393678594061?s=20
Starting to seem less and less likely he gets re-elected, especially if he can't even hold onto hardcore conservatives now.

Starting to think you're weighing stuff nearly two years out way too heavily.

Yea probably so.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not saying Matthew won't enter, but if doesn't,  it was a campaign for HR 1 most Secular actors like William Katt, and Matthew and Clooney want HR 1 and end Citizens United

Actors campaign for D's based on HR1 and Scharzenegger is against Citizens United

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This is currently the only source reporting on it, but it seems like Lina Hidalgo may want to put her hat into the race?

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/coronavirus/article/Hidalgo-Abbott-mask-lifted-political-ratings-gov-16014934.php

I really really hope not. Shes got all the time in the world to be wait until Texas gets more blue/purple.

I just don't want her to waste her political points on a race where she'd get 47% tops.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX is purple but there hasn't been a female elected Senator or Gov since Ann Richards, we need a male candidate

[Orwell]

TX is purple but there hasn't been a female elected Senator or Gov since Ann Richards, we need a male candidate

What about Kay Bailey Hutchinson

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I forgot about that

[beesley]

I was reminded of that delusional YouTube star who claimed that Matthew McConaughey was one of her five husbands (others include Vladimir Putin and Keanu Reeves) who would aid her in her fight to stop Jesuits gaining power in the US and uninstalling their malware preventing the defeat of her spaceship. She also claimed she was the actual President of the US who just lent power to Donald Trump and Adam Putnam for the day to day running of things while her and others save the world.

So yeah, McConaughey endorsed I guess.

[Independents for Nihilism]

If McConnaughey runs as a democrat, does he have a chance? Would he run as a democrat?

[Real Texan Politics]

If McConnaughey runs as a democrat, does he have a chance? Would he run as a democrat?

My gut says he just runs as an independent, though it seems like he leans liberal on some issues like gun control (as shown in this article): https://www.khou.com/article/news/local/texas/matthew-mcconaughey-texas-governor-political-past/285-4381f292-b1c4-472f-9300-93b5f75d028c

Though in the same article it mentions how he criticized the “illiberal left”, so I imagine he’s dead center in the spectrum with some left views and right views. If anything he would basically just be an election spoiler which probably means he loses a lot of his audience depending on who wins. Would he want to take the risk, who knows?

[Real Texan Politics]

Very minor update here since this candidate really had no chance in the republican primary, but Martin Holsome (former city councilman for Rusk, TX) has dropped out of the race. That leaves Chad Prather as Abbott's only current primary challenger.

[Real Texan Politics]

Hate to do 3 posts in a row, but we've got some breaking news:

https://twitter.com/dallasnews/status/1378089356292919305?s=20

That leaves Julian Castro as the highest profile potential dem candidate. Could we see him or his twin brother Joaquin enter the race eventually?

[Frenchrepublican]

Hate to do 3 posts in a row, but we've got some breaking news:

https://twitter.com/dallasnews/status/1378089356292919305?s=20

I guess he has read the polls and he knows that with a +15/20 approval rate Abbott is not vulnerable

[Real Texan Politics]

Hate to do 3 posts in a row, but we've got some breaking news:

https://twitter.com/dallasnews/status/1378089356292919305?s=20

I guess he has read the polls and he knows that with a +15/20 approval rate Abbott is not vulnerable

Abbott could still be, but without Beto on the ballot, that may spell trouble for democrats.

I wonder if McConaughey even tries running anymore? Starting to think it may have just been a publicity stunt and he won't run at all.

[Frenchrepublican]

Hate to do 3 posts in a row, but we've got some breaking news:

https://twitter.com/dallasnews/status/1378089356292919305?s=20

I guess he has read the polls and he knows that with a +15/20 approval rate Abbott is not vulnerable

Abbott could still be, but without Beto on the ballot, that may spell trouble for democrats.

I wonder if McConaughey even tries running anymore? Starting to think it may have just been a publicity stunt and he won't run at all.

LOL - That's ridiculous, if Abbott is losing republicans are losing +40 seats in the House, the PA/WI/NC/FL/IA/OH Senate seats and at least a half dozen of governor mansions.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Castro's aren't running they made that very clear when Ds wanted them to run against Cornyn, they want to focus on Joaquin being the best Rep

Abbott is safe

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Hate to do 3 posts in a row, but we've got some breaking news:

https://twitter.com/dallasnews/status/1378089356292919305?s=20

I guess he has read the polls and he knows that with a +15/20 approval rate Abbott is not vulnerable

Abbott could still be, but without Beto on the ballot, that may spell trouble for democrats.

It's gonna be trouble no matter what for Texas Democrats during a B I D E N M I D T E R M

[JMT]

Looks like Beto walked back his comments a bit, and has now left the door open to running:

https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1378110709968556037?s=21

[Sir Mohamed]

Beto may have a much better shot at challenging Cruz again in 2024 instead of running 4 gov. Abbott is a very bad gov, but there is almost no chance the dude loses reelection in 2022. Not even if this was a Trump midterm again.

[MT Treasurer]

LOL - That's ridiculous, if Abbott is losing republicans are losing +40 seats in the House, the PA/WI/NC/FL/IA/OH Senate seats and at least a half dozen of governor mansions.

I agree that Abbott isn’t particularly vulnerable, but deducing that a Republican Senate candidate would lose a Senate race in a Safe R state (at the federal level) just because a Republican governor lost a Lean/Likely R state (e.g. due to some combination of unforeseen circumstances such as disaster mismanagement, personal scandal, a more D-friendly environment than anticipated, etc.) strikes me as an overreaction. Also, a 40-seat loss in the House even in that scenario seems like a serious exaggeration, especially given that gubernatorial races tend to be more decoupled from the overall environment/federal dynamics than Congressional races.

Abbott's margin of victory in 2018 wasn’t even that impressive even when you factor in the massive D wave that year — even Doug Ducey won by a wider margin against (arguably) a stronger opponent in supposedly more 'inelastic' AZ.

[VAR]

Abbott's margin of victory in 2018 wasn’t even that impressive even when you factor in the massive D wave that year — even Doug Ducey won by a wider margin against (arguably) a stronger opponent in supposedly more 'inelastic' AZ.

No, Garcia was a SOCIALIST and Valdez wasn’t. Ergo, Garcia weak candidate, Valdez strong candidate.

[Skill and Chance]

LOL - That's ridiculous, if Abbott is losing republicans are losing +40 seats in the House, the PA/WI/NC/FL/IA/OH Senate seats and at least a half dozen of governor mansions.

I agree that Abbott isn’t particularly vulnerable, but deducing that a Republican Senate candidate would lose a Senate race in a Safe R state (at the federal level) just because a Republican governor lost a Lean/Likely R state (e.g. due to some combination of unforeseen circumstances such as disaster mismanagement, personal scandal, a more D-friendly environment than anticipated, etc.) strikes me as an overreaction. Also, a 40-seat loss in the House even in that scenario seems like a serious exaggeration, especially given that gubernatorial races tend to be more decoupled from the overall environment/federal dynamics than Congressional races.

Abbott's margin of victory in 2018 wasn’t even that impressive even when you factor in the massive D wave that year — even Doug Ducey won by a wider margin against (arguably) a stronger opponent in supposedly more 'inelastic' AZ.

Disagree strongly.  Garcia turned out to be totally nuts.

[Real Texan Politics]

Abbott's margin of victory in 2018 wasn’t even that impressive even when you factor in the massive D wave that year — even Doug Ducey won by a wider margin against (arguably) a stronger opponent in supposedly more 'inelastic' AZ.

No, Garcia was a SOCIALIST and Valdez wasn’t. Ergo, Garcia weak candidate, Valdez strong candidate.

Valdez couldn’t even win Fort Bend County. Whoever the democrats nominate is almost guaranteed to win it this time around.

Looks like Beto walked back his comments a bit, and has now left the door open to running:

https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1378110709968556037?s=21

Maybe he’s waiting til Texas gets bluer? I could see him go for governor in 2026, or try again for senate in 2024.

[Skill and Chance]

Abbott's margin of victory in 2018 wasn’t even that impressive even when you factor in the massive D wave that year — even Doug Ducey won by a wider margin against (arguably) a stronger opponent in supposedly more 'inelastic' AZ.

No, Garcia was a SOCIALIST and Valdez wasn’t. Ergo, Garcia weak candidate, Valdez strong candidate.

Valdez couldn’t even win Fort Bend County. Whoever the democrats nominate is almost guaranteed to win it this time around.

Looks like Beto walked back his comments a bit, and has now left the door open to running:

https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1378110709968556037?s=21

Maybe he’s waiting til Texas gets bluer? I could see him go for governor in 2026, or try again for senate in 2024.

He will be very old news by then.  Perhaps he could find an open state legislative district near El Paso to bide time and stay relevant?  Even so, I think the door has closed on him.  Running for president that soon and on an all social issues, all the time platform was just a really dumb move.