Texas 2022 megathread

[Heebie Jeebie]

I'm not a huge O'Rourke fan, but I think he absolutely can win this thing.  It all depends on how the national environment looks a year from now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm not a huge O'Rourke fan, but I think he absolutely can win this thing.  It all depends on how the national environment looks a year from now.

D's have to lift the debt Ceiling, if there is a Govt shutdown over the Debt Ceiling, Pelosi will be blamed, Speakers always get blamed, not Senate leaders, she is gonna blame it all on Leader Mcconnell and he is in the Minority, it won't be pretty if the Debt Ceiling isn't raised by Oct 1st, but it's Sinema and Manchin fault they won't get rid of Filibuster

Then she has to convince Manchin and Sinema to agree to 2.5T up from 1=5T, if everything was fine and 4=7T package was passed already, Biden would be at 55% he's struggling at 50/48 the same Approvals as he has on Election night 50/45

Right now it's a 304 map, and GA Sen goes to Runoff

[Oppo]

Beto is an honorable man but he must step aside for McConaughey, who is putting up much better numbers against Abbott.

[Biden his time]

Beto O'Rourke is essentially Nikki Fried

He will be curbstomped if he wins the nomination

Possibly by a double-digit margin with the likes of Cornyn 2020 and Abbott 2018

[Vespucci]

Beto O'Rourke is essentially Nikki Fried

He will be curbstomped if he wins the nomination

Possibly by a double-digit margin with the likes of Cornyn 2020 and Abbott 2018

Beto won’t get blown out; he’s probably the best candidate to turn out the Democratic base. Unfortunately he’s also the best candidate to turn out the Republican base.

[Calthrina950]

I'm trying to imagine a possible scenario where O'Rourke is the Democratic nominee and McConaughey runs as a independent candidate. Abbott would probably win in such a scenario, but possibly with only a plurality-like Rick Perry in 2006.

[Real Texan Politics]

I'm trying to imagine a possible scenario where O'Rourke is the Democratic nominee and McConaughey runs as a independent candidate. Abbott would probably win in such a scenario, but possibly with only a plurality-like Rick Perry in 2006.

The other problem is Texas was more safe republican in 2006 than today, and I don’t think Rick Perry was as polarizing then as Abbott is today. I also don’t know where Matthew’s votes would come from besides suburban undecideds. It’s possible he could do better with independent suburban moms than Beto, possibly leading to him winning a county like Collin if he were the dem nominee instead of Beto (who most likely won’t win Collin unless Matthew steps in).

If Matthew steps in, whether as a dem or third party, I’m moving Texas from likely R to tossup. Yup, I just said it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto as UWS said has zero chance unless VR is passed, D's were dealt a blow when they couldn't put their immigration reform bill in Reconciliation same with FL, good night D's
.without VR and immigration reform they won't crack Gerrymandering in TX and FL

It's over, and Biden hasn't protected the Wall anyways in anticipation of immigration reform he thought he was gonna pass

The only person that can win is McCounghey but he isn't running

[UncleSam]

Beto is an honorable man but he must step aside for McConaughey, who is putting up much better numbers against Abbott.

Ya the only reason this is the case is because there’s no ‘D’ staples next to McConaughey’s name in polling. Once he starts running a real campaign (if he ever does) the wheels will fall off quickly.

Beto is a way better shot, but still Likely R in a Biden midterm.

[Suburbia]

Texas Dems need to run someone who is tough but fair on immigration and someone who is not gaffe prone...

[Real Texan Politics]

Beta o'dork once SHAMEFULLY said that churches that oppose gay marriage should lose their tax exemptions.

That was awful and even got pushback by some liberals.

Beta O'dork is damaged goods. He is authoritarian.

Agreed.  O'Rourke needs to fully commit to this proposition and call for ALL churches to lose their tax exemptions.  

That alone is another several points added to Abbott's margin of victory.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Beta o'dork once SHAMEFULLY said that churches that oppose gay marriage should lose their tax exemptions.

That was awful and even got pushback by some liberals.

Beta O'dork is damaged goods. He is authoritarian.

Agreed.  O'Rourke needs to fully commit to this proposition and call for ALL churches to lose their tax exemptions.  

That alone is another several points added to Abbott's margin of victory.

At least a several points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto won't win, OH and Tim Ryan and he is leading in a poll would win before Beto and DeSantis and Rubio gotta bump from Surfside

It depends on whom is nominated in NC for wave insurance Jeff Jackson or Beasley, Beasley hurt herself endorsing Filibuster.

OH split it's votes before in 2018 between BROWN/DEWINE Mandel and Vance aren't Rob Portman Ryan/DeWine and Warnock/Kemp spl vote can happen

Ryan is just as strong as Kelly and Hickenlooper

Bullock ran into Daines, but no one other than Gianforte is left to take on Tester, good news for him, Zinke and Rosendale are Vance and Mandel types

[wbrocks67]

Texas Dems need to run someone who is tough but fair on immigration and someone who is not gaffe prone...

The gun thing was O'Rourke's only "gaffe" in about 3 years if IIRC....

[Heebie Jeebie]

Beta o'dork once SHAMEFULLY said that churches that oppose gay marriage should lose their tax exemptions.

That was awful and even got pushback by some liberals.

Beta O'dork is damaged goods. He is authoritarian.

Agreed.  O'Rourke needs to fully commit to this proposition and call for ALL churches to lose their tax exemptions.  

That alone is another several points added to Abbott's margin of victory.

Yeah, it was a joke.  It would be good policy but terrible politics.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need McCounghey, he is the only one to win

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Texas Dems need to run someone who is tough but fair on immigration and someone who is not gaffe prone...

The gun thing was O'Rourke's only "gaffe" in about 3 years if IIRC....

Eh the random Spanish in the debate was pretty cringe.

[Real Texan Politics]

Texas Dems need to run someone who is tough but fair on immigration and someone who is not gaffe prone...

The gun thing was O'Rourke's only "gaffe" in about 3 years if IIRC....

Eh the random Spanish in the debate was pretty cringe.

He'll do it on the campaign trail, especially in the hispanic heavy areas of Texas. He'll probably speak spanish again during the gubernatorial debate.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Texas Dems need to run someone who is tough but fair on immigration and someone who is not gaffe prone...

The gun thing was O'Rourke's only "gaffe" in about 3 years if IIRC....

Eh the random Spanish in the debate was pretty cringe.

He'll do it on the campaign trail, especially in the hispanic heavy areas of Texas. He'll probably speak spanish again during the gubernatorial debate.

It's possible, but it certainly seems less pander-y to do it when he actually has connection to a heavily Hispanic community and is running in a heavily Spanish-speaking state. He never should've ran for POTUS.

[free my dawg]

To the griftmobile!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Texas Dems need to run someone who is tough but fair on immigration and someone who is not gaffe prone...

The gun thing was O'Rourke's only "gaffe" in about 3 years if IIRC....

It's a pretty big one for running in Texas though.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I take it this thread is gonna be nothing but comments regarding the gun line for the next year?

[wbrocks67]

Texas Dems need to run someone who is tough but fair on immigration and someone who is not gaffe prone...

The gun thing was O'Rourke's only "gaffe" in about 3 years if IIRC....

It's a pretty big one for running in Texas though.

and it was over a year and half ago.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto is down by 5 pts and Crist is down by 3, D's are gonna win FL before TX look at Biden Approvals they are mediocre Wbrooks you said HEGAR was gonna win and she Lost

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yeah totally.  If Beto hadn't done that glory-seeking vanity campaign for President (i mean dude didn't even get elected to the Senate in 2018 and yet he wants a promotion into the White House) and gone bonkers, and if he'd just worked hard for the past few years building up the state party (and he could have did it too), he'd actually be in a really good position to run for Governor of Texas.  And possibly win the damn thing... which would have in turn made him instant presidential material. 

Sometimes pure naked ambition can backfire on you like a bitch.

If Beto hadn’t run for President in 2020, he would almost certainly have run for Senate that same year. A bid for Governor after two consecutive losses wouldn’t be on the cards.