TX-GOV: O'Rourke thinking about running

[Mexican Wolf]

It won't happen, but if Beto still won after his apparently political career-killing gun comments and presidential run, I'd laugh (triumphantly) for days and days.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Only feels like 6 months ago when Beto was considered an campaign marvel with a rising future while Stacy Abrams was a laughing stock who wasted her political capital. Pretty remarkable how much things can flip on a dime.

By the way, I'm sick of hearing about the gun comment. I think it's impact has been severely overblown on here. Especially cause he's done/said dumber things (Such as taxxing churches who oppose gay marriage)

All churches should be taxed, point blank.

[The Houstonian]

Only feels like 6 months ago when Beto was considered an campaign marvel with a rising future while Stacy Abrams was a laughing stock who wasted her political capital. Pretty remarkable how much things can flip on a dime.

By the way, I'm sick of hearing about the gun comment. I think it's impact has been severely overblown on here. Especially cause he's done/said dumber things (Such as taxxing churches who oppose gay marriage)

All churches should be taxed, point blank.

He specifically referred to churches that oppose gay marriage. If he meant to refer to all churches, he would have done so.

[DaleCooper]

Only feels like 6 months ago when Beto was considered an campaign marvel with a rising future while Stacy Abrams was a laughing stock who wasted her political capital. Pretty remarkable how much things can flip on a dime.

By the way, I'm sick of hearing about the gun comment. I think it's impact has been severely overblown on here. Especially cause he's done/said dumber things (Such as taxxing churches who oppose gay marriage)

All churches should be taxed, point blank.

He specifically referred to churches that oppose gay marriage. If he meant to refer to all churches, he would have done so.

Hot take, but I actually think "tax the churches" would be a lot stronger of a position than one might expect it to be, but only if it's from the perspective of churches getting a free ride from the taxpayers rather than from the perspective of churches being on the wrong side of social issues. 

It's probably not a winning issue in much of the country, but I think a maverick candidate in either party could get a lot of milage out of it in a primary.

[The Houstonian]

Only feels like 6 months ago when Beto was considered an campaign marvel with a rising future while Stacy Abrams was a laughing stock who wasted her political capital. Pretty remarkable how much things can flip on a dime.

By the way, I'm sick of hearing about the gun comment. I think it's impact has been severely overblown on here. Especially cause he's done/said dumber things (Such as taxxing churches who oppose gay marriage)

All churches should be taxed, point blank.

He specifically referred to churches that oppose gay marriage. If he meant to refer to all churches, he would have done so.

Hot take, but I actually think "tax the churches" would be a lot stronger of a position than one might expect it to be, but only if it's from the perspective of churches getting a free ride from the taxpayers rather than from the perspective of churches being on the wrong side of social issues. 

It's probably not a winning issue in much of the country, but I think a maverick candidate in either party could get a lot of milage out of it in a primary.

The GOP would love another tax to run against. "The Democrats want to tax everything - even church!"

[DaleCooper]

Only feels like 6 months ago when Beto was considered an campaign marvel with a rising future while Stacy Abrams was a laughing stock who wasted her political capital. Pretty remarkable how much things can flip on a dime.

By the way, I'm sick of hearing about the gun comment. I think it's impact has been severely overblown on here. Especially cause he's done/said dumber things (Such as taxxing churches who oppose gay marriage)

All churches should be taxed, point blank.

He specifically referred to churches that oppose gay marriage. If he meant to refer to all churches, he would have done so.

Hot take, but I actually think "tax the churches" would be a lot stronger of a position than one might expect it to be, but only if it's from the perspective of churches getting a free ride from the taxpayers rather than from the perspective of churches being on the wrong side of social issues. 

It's probably not a winning issue in much of the country, but I think a maverick candidate in either party could get a lot of milage out of it in a primary.

The GOP would love another tax to run against. "The Democrats want to tax everything - even church!"

That's probably true, but I still think there's a big untapped resentment towards organized religion and specifically the megachurches, even amongst right-leaning people. I suppose the trick would be differentiating between them and small churches, which would be tough to do.

[UWS]

Only feels like 6 months ago when Beto was considered an campaign marvel with a rising future while Stacy Abrams was a laughing stock who wasted her political capital. Pretty remarkable how much things can flip on a dime.

By the way, I'm sick of hearing about the gun comment. I think it's impact has been severely overblown on here. Especially cause he's done/said dumber things (Such as taxxing churches who oppose gay marriage)

All churches should be taxed, point blank.

He specifically referred to churches that oppose gay marriage. If he meant to refer to all churches, he would have done so.

Hot take, but I actually think "tax the churches" would be a lot stronger of a position than one might expect it to be, but only if it's from the perspective of churches getting a free ride from the taxpayers rather than from the perspective of churches being on the wrong side of social issues. 

It's probably not a winning issue in much of the country, but I think a maverick candidate in either party could get a lot of milage out of it in a primary.

The GOP would love another tax to run against. "The Democrats want to tax everything - even church!"

And even rain as O’Rourke voted in favor of a, quote, rain tax during his time in the El Paso city council.

[The Houstonian]

Only feels like 6 months ago when Beto was considered an campaign marvel with a rising future while Stacy Abrams was a laughing stock who wasted her political capital. Pretty remarkable how much things can flip on a dime.

By the way, I'm sick of hearing about the gun comment. I think it's impact has been severely overblown on here. Especially cause he's done/said dumber things (Such as taxxing churches who oppose gay marriage)

All churches should be taxed, point blank.

He specifically referred to churches that oppose gay marriage. If he meant to refer to all churches, he would have done so.

Hot take, but I actually think "tax the churches" would be a lot stronger of a position than one might expect it to be, but only if it's from the perspective of churches getting a free ride from the taxpayers rather than from the perspective of churches being on the wrong side of social issues. 

It's probably not a winning issue in much of the country, but I think a maverick candidate in either party could get a lot of milage out of it in a primary.

The GOP would love another tax to run against. "The Democrats want to tax everything - even church!"

That's probably true, but I still think there's a big untapped resentment towards organized religion and specifically the megachurches, even amongst right-leaning people. I suppose the trick would be differentiating between them and small churches, which would be tough to do.

This would only work in the GOP. I doubt that many Democrats care that much about the difference between a megachurch and a small church, plus a Republican would be insulated against accusations of being a "tax-and-spender" or "anti-religion" (in the same way that "only Nixon could go to China").

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Only feels like 6 months ago when Beto was considered an campaign marvel with a rising future while Stacy Abrams was a laughing stock who wasted her political capital. Pretty remarkable how much things can flip on a dime.

By the way, I'm sick of hearing about the gun comment. I think it's impact has been severely overblown on here. Especially cause he's done/said dumber things (Such as taxxing churches who oppose gay marriage)

All churches should be taxed, point blank.

I agree. But I'd rather an all-or-nothing approach rather than the slippery-slope of taxing specific churches based on how the President feels about a particular issue.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott wins 55/45 percent, nothing to see

[DaleCooper]

If Beto wants a career as an elected politician then he should find a safe congressional district after redistricting and serve in the House for a decade or two until statewide victory is a realistic possibility for him.

[McGarnagle]

If Beto wants a career as an elected politician then he should find a safe congressional district after redistricting and serve in the House for a decade or two until statewide victory is a realistic possibility for him.

First Representative for ten or so years then Governor or Senator for 4 or 6, then VP in 2040?

Possible. He definitely hobbled himself by running for President in 2020, he should have stayed in-state for a while.

Same as Steve Bullock. He ran for President first - it was less convincing when he returned to Montana to run for Senate and that doomed him. If he hadn't run for President he might have been able to beat Daines since he was a popular Governor - or at least it would have been closer.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Only feels like 6 months ago when Beto was considered an campaign marvel with a rising future while Stacy Abrams was a laughing stock who wasted her political capital. Pretty remarkable how much things can flip on a dime.

By the way, I'm sick of hearing about the gun comment. I think it's impact has been severely overblown on here. Especially cause he's done/said dumber things (Such as taxxing churches who oppose gay marriage)

All churches should be taxed, point blank.

Seeing as they are tax-exempt for being non-profits and don't have actual profits to tax...this is basically impossible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Beto wants a career as an elected politician then he should find a safe congressional district after redistricting and serve in the House for a decade or two until statewide victory is a realistic possibility for him.

First Representative for ten or so years then Governor or Senator for 4 or 6, then VP in 2040?

Possible. He definitely hobbled himself by running for President in 2020, he should have stayed in-state for a while.

Same as Steve Bullock. He ran for President first - it was less convincing when he returned to Montana to run for Senate and that doomed him. If he hadn't run for President he might have been able to beat Daines since he was a popular Governor - or at least it would have been closer.

Daines isn't a polarizing force and MT, AK, KS and TX trended rightward due to the Ds left turn of the Green New Deal and all othose states are oil states

Beto will never have an Elected position again and Biden doesn't want him for Cabinet

[BaldEagle1991]

BOLD PREDICTION TIME

If Beto's the nominee, Harris County could possibly be a bit more competitive than usual. Beto still wins it though but it definitely swings to the right by a few points.

Also some of y'all may not know this, but Fort Bend County actually voted for Abbott in 2018. It's certainly possible it could stay red this time, or maybe it votes to the left of Harris County.

For someone who frequents Fort Bend and Harris on a daily basis.

HELL NO.

[Real Texan Politics]

BOLD PREDICTION TIME

If Beto's the nominee, Harris County could possibly be a bit more competitive than usual. Beto still wins it though but it definitely swings to the right by a few points.

Also some of y'all may not know this, but Fort Bend County actually voted for Abbott in 2018. It's certainly possible it could stay red this time, or maybe it votes to the left of Harris County.

For someone who frequents Fort Bend and Harris on a daily basis.

HELL NO.

Yea you're probably right.

Although how did Abbott win Fort Bend in 2018? Albeit it was a plurality and he didn't win Harris but was it his suburban appeal?

[Rookie Yinzer]

I like how the gun comment somehow killed his political career based on nothing but punditry; no polling or focus groups, just punditry.

Atlas in a nutshell. And when they're proven wrong they'll just come out with an even hotter take.

[Real Texan Politics]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=6xpj

My county map prediction, though it's likely I may be taking the south Texas trends for granted. Probably depends on the messages Beto campaigns on, because if he's gonna campaign the same way he did for president then it's possible he loses ground in some the more conservative hispanic counties.

Also I think Abbott keeps the suburbs and holds onto Collin, Denton, Tarrant, and Williamson, although loses Fort Bend. Hays is barely even winnable for republicans anymore though he can certainly make gains there. Remember this is based off the 2018 results which is why Tarrant, Williamson, and Fort Bend were red.

[coloradocowboi]

He will lose.

Every Democrat would. But if he runs an aggressive campaign, he can gin progressive turnout up and make the GOP have to compete more than they would normally.

[Gracile]

I think he has the potential to lose by a closer margin than Valdez (though it would still be a firm Abbott win), and it's not like Texas Democrats really have anyone else to waste on what is obviously an unwinnable race.

[Real Texan Politics]

I think he has the potential to lose by a closer margin than Valdez (though it would still be a firm Abbott win), and it's not like Texas Democrats really have anyone else to waste on what is obviously an unwinnable race.

I think Abbott only wins by single digits this time because of Beto's strong name recognition and potentially strong campaigning. Still likely R, but I'd say Abbott +8.

[Santander]

Have you seen Beto's playlists on Spotify? I support him based on those alone.

Hell yes, we're going to take your AR-15!

EDIT: I mean, just look at these playlists. This guy has amazing taste.

https://medium.com/popquarterly/betos-indie-playlist-29cb91b5e134
https://www.texasmonthly.com/the-culture/beto-orourke-spotify-playlist/
https://www.vice.com/en/article/7xg4ja/beto-orourke-made-me-a-punk-playlist

[Alcibiades]

His gun comments are probably going to make life tough for him. A shame, because they were heartfelt and absolutely correct.

[S019]

Only feels like 6 months ago when Beto was considered an campaign marvel with a rising future while Stacy Abrams was a laughing stock who wasted her political capital. Pretty remarkable how much things can flip on a dime.

By the way, I'm sick of hearing about the gun comment. I think it's impact has been severely overblown on here. Especially cause he's done/said dumber things (Such as taxxing churches who oppose gay marriage)

All churches should be taxed, point blank.

He specifically referred to churches that oppose gay marriage. If he meant to refer to all churches, he would have done so.

Hot take, but I actually think "tax the churches" would be a lot stronger of a position than one might expect it to be, but only if it's from the perspective of churches getting a free ride from the taxpayers rather than from the perspective of churches being on the wrong side of social issues. 

It's probably not a winning issue in much of the country, but I think a maverick candidate in either party could get a lot of milage out of it in a primary.

The GOP would love another tax to run against. "The Democrats want to tax everything - even church!"

And even rain as O’Rourke voted in favor of a, quote, rain tax during his time in the El Paso city council.

Can we please stop with these stupid, disingenuous "rain tax" attacks

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Greg Abbott has mastered the art of fake moderation and is going to be tough to beat.