Census 2020 apportionments to be released by April 30; redistricting by Sept 30

[Nyvin]

I just received an announcement from the Census has set a timeline for release of redistricting data. The redistricting data will be released by Sept 30 and will be released to all states at the same time.

Is that a guarantee that NJ and VA will use old maps for 2021?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I just received an announcement from the Census has set a timeline for release of redistricting data. The redistricting data will be released by Sept 30 and will be released to all states at the same time.

Is that a guarantee that NJ and VA will use old maps for 2021?

Yep

[muon2]

I just received an announcement from the Census has set a timeline for release of redistricting data. The redistricting data will be released by Sept 30 and will be released to all states at the same time.

Is that a guarantee that NJ and VA will use old maps for 2021?

Yep

NJ already had that covered with a referendum question passed at the last election that allowed the use of the state legislative maps until 2023 if redistricting data was not released by Feb 15.

VA approved a commission with a timeline that state legislative maps must be completed within 45 days after the data is released. That pretty much rules out Nov 2021.

[ProgressiveModerate]

On the bright side, this gives us time to pass HR.1 and that would go a long way in drawing fair maps.

[jimrtex]

I just received an announcement from the Census has set a timeline for release of redistricting data. The redistricting data will be released by Sept 30 and will be released to all states at the same time.

I read the announcements as giving a little bit of wiggle room. Legislators want to know when they will have data. If they said it "could" be as early as July you are still leaving them hanging.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/statement-redistricting-data-timeline.html

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2021/02/timeline-redistricting-data.html

There is now legislation pending in Texas that would permit the primary to be delayed if redistricting is not completed by September 1, 2021.

[muon2]

I just received an announcement from the Census has set a timeline for release of redistricting data. The redistricting data will be released by Sept 30 and will be released to all states at the same time.

I read the announcements as giving a little bit of wiggle room. Legislators want to know when they will have data. If they said it "could" be as early as July you are still leaving them hanging.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/statement-redistricting-data-timeline.html

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2021/02/timeline-redistricting-data.html

There is now legislation pending in Texas that would permit the primary to be delayed if redistricting is not completed by September 1, 2021.

Literally that is true, but the tone I got from the conference call last month made me think they weren't seriously considering any dates in Aug. This timeline confirms that thought for me. My best guess is they are thinking mid-Sep at the earliest and this gives them padding if something causes delays.

[StateBoiler]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.
But not this year.
The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.
State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).
It’s Indiana’s problem.
IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

Well how it always worked in the past is the Census was released on time and they released new districts in a year that ends in 1, all complete by April.
They could have a special session later in the year to do it, but that means the state has to spend extra money not previously earmarked because the federal government bureaucrats can't meet a date of release. It's okay, we can just send the Census Bureau a bill for the costs, right?

What was the census bureau supposed to do? Do a rushed job and give the states messed up census data?

On December 31st Tender Branson stated in the census thread on page 51 that the Census Bureau said the data quality was high as he posted a press release from them saying as much. If releasing now is a rush job with messed up census data, then the press release was incredibly premature.

We've gone from having high quality data on 12/31 to waiting 9 months to release it to all the bodies required to use this information, which also screws over everyone filing for elections in 2022.

[Tender Branson]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.
But not this year.
The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.
State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).
It’s Indiana’s problem.
IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

Well how it always worked in the past is the Census was released on time and they released new districts in a year that ends in 1, all complete by April.
They could have a special session later in the year to do it, but that means the state has to spend extra money not previously earmarked because the federal government bureaucrats can't meet a date of release. It's okay, we can just send the Census Bureau a bill for the costs, right?

What was the census bureau supposed to do? Do a rushed job and give the states messed up census data?

On December 31st Tender Branson stated in the census thread on page 51 that the Census Bureau said the data quality was high as he posted a press release from them saying as much. If releasing now is a rush job with messed up census data, then the press release was incredibly premature.

We've gone from having high quality data on 12/31 to waiting 9 months to release it to all the bodies required to use this information, which also screws over everyone filing for elections in 2022.

The campaign period is way too long anyway.

There’s basically constant campaigning from one election (2020) to another (2022) ...

The primaries should be held not earlier than September, then 1 or 2 debates, and then the GE in early November.

Filing shouldn’t start in 2021, but in July 2022.

[StateBoiler]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.
But not this year.
The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.
State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).
It’s Indiana’s problem.
IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

Well how it always worked in the past is the Census was released on time and they released new districts in a year that ends in 1, all complete by April.
They could have a special session later in the year to do it, but that means the state has to spend extra money not previously earmarked because the federal government bureaucrats can't meet a date of release. It's okay, we can just send the Census Bureau a bill for the costs, right?

What was the census bureau supposed to do? Do a rushed job and give the states messed up census data?

On December 31st Tender Branson stated in the census thread on page 51 that the Census Bureau said the data quality was high as he posted a press release from them saying as much. If releasing now is a rush job with messed up census data, then the press release was incredibly premature.

We've gone from having high quality data on 12/31 to waiting 9 months to release it to all the bodies required to use this information, which also screws over everyone filing for elections in 2022.

The campaign period is way too long anyway.

There’s basically constant campaigning from one election (2020) to another (2022) ...

The primaries should be held not earlier than September, then 1 or 2 debates, and then the GE in early November.

Filing shouldn’t start in 2021, but in July 2022.

If you're on this board you should be smart enough to know how sh**t works. People plan campaigns NOW by talking to people in the background and seeing if they would back them or not, hiring a small number of staff, go out and meet and greet. There's a lot of shaking and jostling on who is going to be the candidate among people that never see a ballot. Democrats in Indiana did not have a stated governor candidate for 2020 until the summer of 2019 and this was considered the latest ever for that to occur.

My state we're supposed to be 11 months away from filing for 2022 primaries. It closes in about a year from now. This is all prep for primaries the first Tuesday in May. No one knows what geographically they're running for and won't until very late in the game.

[muon2]

My state we're supposed to be 11 months away from filing for 2022 primaries. It closes in about a year from now. This is all prep for primaries the first Tuesday in May. No one knows what geographically they're running for and won't until very late in the game.

It's even more extreme in IL. State law allows petitions to begin circulating on Aug 31 this year and file in late Nov for the Mar 2022 primary. The constitution requires the legislature to have a new legislative plan by Jun 30, or the backup commission to have one by Oct 5.

[Tender Branson]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.
But not this year.
The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.
State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).
It’s Indiana’s problem.
IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

Well how it always worked in the past is the Census was released on time and they released new districts in a year that ends in 1, all complete by April.
They could have a special session later in the year to do it, but that means the state has to spend extra money not previously earmarked because the federal government bureaucrats can't meet a date of release. It's okay, we can just send the Census Bureau a bill for the costs, right?

What was the census bureau supposed to do? Do a rushed job and give the states messed up census data?

On December 31st Tender Branson stated in the census thread on page 51 that the Census Bureau said the data quality was high as he posted a press release from them saying as much. If releasing now is a rush job with messed up census data, then the press release was incredibly premature.

We've gone from having high quality data on 12/31 to waiting 9 months to release it to all the bodies required to use this information, which also screws over everyone filing for elections in 2022.

The campaign period is way too long anyway.

There’s basically constant campaigning from one election (2020) to another (2022) ...

The primaries should be held not earlier than September, then 1 or 2 debates, and then the GE in early November.

Filing shouldn’t start in 2021, but in July 2022.

If you're on this board you should be smart enough to know how sh**t works. People plan campaigns NOW by talking to people in the background and seeing if they would back them or not, hiring a small number of staff, go out and meet and greet. There's a lot of shaking and jostling on who is going to be the candidate among people that never see a ballot. Democrats in Indiana did not have a stated governor candidate for 2020 until the summer of 2019 and this was considered the latest ever for that to occur.

My state we're supposed to be 11 months away from filing for 2022 primaries. It closes in about a year from now. This is all prep for primaries the first Tuesday in May. No one knows what geographically they're running for and won't until very late in the game.

I know how sh#t works.

Many states are just very inflexible when it comes to adapting to unforeseen circumstances such as delayed census numbers.

They must be bipartisan, move back the filing deadlines and primaries if they want districts based on the new numbers. If not, they can use the old data for 2021 and 2022.

The candidate talking to potential supporters and early campaigning can be done already behind the scenes anyway. This has nothing to do with the filing deadlines. If they move the filing deadlines to a later date. It’s not impossible.

There are several states who have their primaries as late as mid-September (MA, NH etc.) - no need to have such early primaries and deadlines ...

[StateBoiler]

Delayed municipal elections in N.C. due to the "high quality data on New Year's Eve" not being published until 9 months later.

https://indyweek.com/news/northcarolina/raleigh-cary-municipal-elections-could-be-delayed/

On Friday, the U.S. Census Bureau announced a six-month delay in releasing redistricting data to the states. Due to COVID-19, the office said, the census data that informs how electoral districts are redrawn once per decade, originally supposed to be released at the end of March, now won’t be be available until September 30.

The delay has implications for dozens of municipal elections in North Carolina, in towns and cities that elect representatives in similarly populated districts where electors only vote for representatives in their district of residence–including in Raleigh and Cary in the Triangle, and nearly three dozen other North Carolina towns and cities in total. These municipalities originally were required to submit their new maps based on updated population numbers by July 21; candidates would be able to file to run for office shortly thereafter.   

According to Gerry Cohen, a Wake County Board of Elections member, former N.C. General Assembly special counsel, and North Carolina elections expert, a state law that dates back to 1990 would, if triggered, put the election dates for municipalities where voters elect candidates from their districts on the date of the 2022 spring primary (currently scheduled for March , and any potential runoff election on a second primary date seven to 10 weeks after the first primary.

Candidates for these local offices, then, wouldn’t file to run until December.

The law exists due to similar census delays in 1990 that allowed towns to delay their municipal elections until 1992.

[Tender Branson]

Delayed municipal elections in N.C. due to the "high quality data on New Year's Eve" not being published until 9 months later.

A) nobody cares about a random NC municipal election. They can adapt to the release.

B) "high quality data on New Year's Eve" doesn't really matter, because yeah, it was high-quality - but data collection only ended in late October and it takes 4 months to come up with the results of the population count even in years without Covid.

[Kevinstat]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.
But not this year.
The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.
State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).
It’s Indiana’s problem.
IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

Well how it always worked in the past is the Census was released on time and they released new districts in a year that ends in 1, all complete by April.
They could have a special session later in the year to do it, but that means the state has to spend extra money not previously earmarked because the federal government bureaucrats can't meet a date of release. It's okay, we can just send the Census Bureau a bill for the costs, right?

What was the census bureau supposed to do? Do a rushed job and give the states messed up census data?

On December 31st Tender Branson stated in the census thread on page 51 that the Census Bureau said the data quality was high as he posted a press release from them saying as much. If releasing now is a rush job with messed up census data, then the press release was incredibly premature.

We've gone from having high quality data on 12/31 to waiting 9 months to release it to all the bodies required to use this information, which also screws over everyone filing for elections in 2022.

I know this conversation thread has gone beyond this, but I just wanted to point out that 12/31/2020 was never the deadline for the redistricting data, but for the total state populations (resident and overseas which add to the apportionment population) and number of seats in the U.S. House.  Going from the original deadlines (which are still on the books at this point) to the new deadlines, it's a 4-month delay on the apportionment totals and a 6-month (minus one day) delay on the redistricting data (although without COVID some states would have likely gotten their redistricting data by now, so it's more than a 6-month delay from what may have been expected in states with the earliest deadlines).  But it's not a 9-month delay.

[StateBoiler]

http://ballot-access.org/2021/02/18/pennsylvania-legislative-leader-says-state-may-postpone-may-2022-primaries/

Pennsylvania Legislative Leader says State may Postpone May 2022 Primaries

http://ballot-access.org/2021/02/18/illinois-2022-primary-date-may-be-moved/

Illinois 2022 Primary Date may be Moved

[StateBoiler]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.
But not this year.
The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.
State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).
It’s Indiana’s problem.
IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

Well how it always worked in the past is the Census was released on time and they released new districts in a year that ends in 1, all complete by April.
They could have a special session later in the year to do it, but that means the state has to spend extra money not previously earmarked because the federal government bureaucrats can't meet a date of release. It's okay, we can just send the Census Bureau a bill for the costs, right?

What was the census bureau supposed to do? Do a rushed job and give the states messed up census data?

On December 31st Tender Branson stated in the census thread on page 51 that the Census Bureau said the data quality was high as he posted a press release from them saying as much. If releasing now is a rush job with messed up census data, then the press release was incredibly premature.

We've gone from having high quality data on 12/31 to waiting 9 months to release it to all the bodies required to use this information, which also screws over everyone filing for elections in 2022.

I know this conversation thread has gone beyond this, but I just wanted to point out that 12/31/2020 was never the deadline for the redistricting data, but for the total state populations (resident and overseas which add to the apportionment population) and number of seats in the U.S. House.

I know. They can be honest however and just admit they lied or at the very least were incredibly premature. They've gone from "data quality is high, we've done all these checks" to "we're not going to be able to publish all that high quality data for 9 months", which negatively affects every state, county, city, town, and school board in the country, who are now going to be required to spend extra time and money on something that should not require it, which cumulatively adds up financially when talking the entire country and every single government unit inside it. Good job.

[StateBoiler]

Delayed municipal elections in N.C. due to the "high quality data on New Year's Eve" not being published until 9 months later.

A) nobody cares about a random NC municipal election. They can adapt to the release.

Just like nobody in those random North Carolina municipalities gives a sh**t about the opinion of an Austrian when it comes to their democracy.

(The city of Raleigh by the way, very random, you're demonstrating your intelligence on our country and discussing these issues there.)

"high quality data on New Year's Eve" doesn't really matter, because yeah, it was high-quality - but data collection only ended in late October and it takes 4 months to come uphttp://ballot-access.org/2021/02/18/illinois-2022-primary-date-may-be-moved/ with the results of the population count even in years without Covid.

So how can they say you have high quality data on 12/31 if they knew they were collecting data in late October and, per you and your own post, can't produce results from that data until late February? I work on federal government contracts with deadlines, and that would not pass muster with the feds if I tried that.

[Tender Branson]

Delayed municipal elections in N.C. due to the "high quality data on New Year's Eve" not being published until 9 months later.

A) nobody cares about a random NC municipal election. They can adapt to the release.

Just like nobody in those random North Carolina municipalities gives a sh**t about the opinion of an Austrian when it comes to their democracy.

(The city of Raleigh by the way, very random, you're demonstrating your intelligence on our country and discussing these issues there.)

"high quality data on New Year's Eve" doesn't really matter, because yeah, it was high-quality - but data collection only ended in late October and it takes 4 months to come uphttp://ballot-access.org/2021/02/18/illinois-2022-primary-date-may-be-moved/ with the results of the population count even in years without Covid.

So how can they say you have high quality data on 12/31 if they knew they were collecting data in late October and, per you and your own post, can't produce results from that data until late February? I work on federal government contracts with deadlines, and that would not pass muster with the feds if I tried that.

Wow, Raleigh.

So important.

That’s a city of just 400k people, smaller than the state of Carinthia - which has municipal elections next Sunday.

That’s like me talking about a municipal election in nearby Maishofen.

[Sol]

There's no point in being upset about it--states and cities simply have to suck it up and readjust their elections.

[The Mikado]

The worst thing about the ignore button is you still see all the quote chains so it's like it doesn't even do anything.

[StateBoiler]

Ohio Sues U.S. Census Bureau over Late Availability of 2020 Census Data

http://ballot-access.org/2021/03/05/ohio-sues-u-s-census-bureau-over-late-availability-of-2020-census-data/

On February 25, the state of Ohio sued the U.S. Census Bureau over the Bureau’s announcement that states can’t obtain 2020 census data until September 30, 2021. The state says it must have the data sooner than that, in order to draw new boundaries for U.S. House and state legislative districts. State of Ohio v Coggins, s.d., 3:21cv-64. Here is the state’s Complaint. https://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/Files/Briefing-Room/News-Releases/Activity-in-Case-321-cv-00064-TMR-State-Of-Ohio-v.aspx?force_isolation=true

A hearing will be held before U.S. District Court Judge Thomas M. Rose on March 19, 2021.

[jimrtex]

Ohio Sues U.S. Census Bureau over Late Availability of 2020 Census Data

http://ballot-access.org/2021/03/05/ohio-sues-u-s-census-bureau-over-late-availability-of-2020-census-data/

On February 25, the state of Ohio sued the U.S. Census Bureau over the Bureau’s announcement that states can’t obtain 2020 census data until September 30, 2021. The state says it must have the data sooner than that, in order to draw new boundaries for U.S. House and state legislative districts. State of Ohio v Coggins, s.d., 3:21cv-64. Here is the state’s Complaint. https://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/Files/Briefing-Room/News-Releases/Activity-in-Case-321-cv-00064-TMR-State-Of-Ohio-v.aspx?force_isolation=true

A hearing will be held before U.S. District Court Judge Thomas M. Rose on March 19, 2021.

The deadlines are in federal statute. The federal government is in violation of those statutes.

When Ohio formed its redistricting commission it relied on the PL 94-171 being available, and set a September 1 deadline in its Constitution. The Census Bureau may be able to accommodate Ohio.

[Vespucci]

If DC/PR statehood passed between now and September, would their districts jump ahead of all the bubble districts and be part of the 435, or would it be like when Alaska/Hawaii were admitted where the size of the House expands until 2030 (since the census has already been conducted)? I would assume that after the redistricting data is released, it's final and we'd get extra districts.

[jimrtex]

If DC/PR statehood passed between now and September, would their districts jump ahead of all the bubble districts and be part of the 435, or would it be like when Alaska/Hawaii were admitted where the size of the House expands until 2030 (since the census has already been conducted)? I would assume that after the redistricting data is released, it's final and we'd get extra districts.

It would depend on the statute.

The 1911 Apportionment provided for 433 representatives for the then 46 States, but had provision for representatives for Arizona and New Mexico, which is why we have 435.

It was in part because they couldn't decide whether to expand the House further, than no apportionment occurred in 1921. It was before the 1930 Census that a decision was made to essentially freeze the size of the House. From 1791 through 1911 the size of the House and the apportionment were made jointly. The apportionment was made as a statement of how many representatives each State would have. There would be a calculation made, but the method varied, and sometimes the mathematics were dicey.

The 1929 statute provided that the Census Bureau would calculate an apportionment of the "then existing number of representatives" (i.e. 435) and transmit that to Congress, and if the Congress did nothing, that would take effect. The 1929 statute provided for calculation under two different methods (equal proportions and major fractions). Under the 1930 Census the method would have made no difference.

In 1940, the statute was amended to take account of the 20th Amendment. In 1941, equal proportions was adopted for 78th Congress (elected in 1942) and every subsequent Census, and 5th subsequent Congress. Based on the 1940 Census, equal proportions would give an additional representative to Arkansas, while major fractions would give an additional representative to Michigan. Congress at the time decided it would be fairer to give the additional representative to a likely Democrat.

The Alaska statehood act in 1958 provided, "[t]hat such temporary increase in the membership shall not operate to either increase or decrease the permanent membership of the House of Representatives as prescribed in the Act of August 8, 1911 (37 Stat. 13) nor shall such temporary increase affect the basis of apportionment established by the Act of November 15, 1941 (55 Stat. 761; 2 U. S. C., sec. 2a), for the Eighty-third Congress and each Congress thereafter."

That is to say, this 436th representative shall not be construed as establishing a different "existing number of representatives". The same language was in the Hawaii statehood act,

The current proposed statehood act would increase the size of House to 436 permanently, and substitute "436" for the words "then existing number of representatives".

The apportionment will be made on or before April 30. It is unlikely that statehood would occur before then, so 435 representatives would be apportioned among 50 States, and then 436 representatives would be apportioned among 51 States.

The Puerto Rico statehood act previously proposed (I could find no 2021 bill) would have granted Puerto Rico the same number as the next smaller state, which could be any of UT, NV, AR, MS, IA, or KS (i.e. 4). That act would not result in a permanent increase but included the caveat "unless Congress changes the number".

Were Congress faced with decreasing the number of representative by four in 2031 they might well make a permanent change.

[StateBoiler]

Were Congress faced with decreasing the number of representative by four in 2031 they might well make a permanent change.

Poor FiveThirtyEight.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2021/03/05/redistricting-panel-ask-supreme-court-delay-new-maps-deadline/4597235001/?force_isolation=true

In a preview of the many lawsuits yet to come due to Census’ late delivery of redistricting data, Michigan’s Redistricting Commission has sued in the Michigan Supreme Court to push back the November 1 deadline to complete new maps.