Florida 2022 Megathread

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1389645148477435905?s=19

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need to wait til we see polls

[2016]

@Canis,
If Demings runs as well Florida Democrats will have two Candidates (Crist & Demings) from the same Region running for Governor. This D-Primary will be a "Hot Mess".

[Donerail]

@Canis,
If Demings runs as well Florida Democrats will have two Candidates (Crist & Demings) from the same Region running for Governor. This D-Primary will be a "Hot Mess".

false

[Canis]

Just realized Ancestraldemocrat posted the video I did already so I deleted my post. It'll be interesting if the primary is a 3 way race between Demmings Fried and Crist they all have little areas of electability I think Fried is the strongest candidate narrowly but I can see Demmings and Crist's appeals and arguments I don't really see any of the 3 winnings But I expect this race to be closer than people think in the end.

[2016]

@Canis,
If Demings runs as well Florida Democrats will have two Candidates (Crist & Demings) from the same Region running for Governor. This D-Primary will be a "Hot Mess".

false

It's not false. Demings is from the Orlando Area while Crist is from St. Pete/Tampa. Both in the middle of the State...the I4 Corridor. I dunno where Fried is from but if Crist/Demings split the Vote in the middle of the State that usually ends up either favouring someone from the Southeast FL or from the North (like Gillum).

[Donerail]

@Canis,
If Demings runs as well Florida Democrats will have two Candidates (Crist & Demings) from the same Region running for Governor. This D-Primary will be a "Hot Mess".

false

It's not false. Demings is from the Orlando Area while Crist is from St. Pete/Tampa. Both in the middle of the State...the I4 Corridor. I dunno where Fried is from but if Crist/Demings split the Vote in the middle of the State that usually ends up either favouring someone from the Southeast FL or from the North (like Gillum).

"The I-4 corridor" is a creation of political journalists, who saw a couple electorally important regions and decided to lump them together b/c there's a common interstate. In truth, no one from Tampa was going to vote for Demings b/c she was the police chief on the other side of the state. They're two very different cities with different demographics & different political cultures.

Fried, fwiw, is from Fort Lauderdale, though it's not clear how much that matters — she was a very low-profile lobbyist before running for Ag Commissioner. Contrast that with someone like Demings, who has been a high-profile figure in Orlando & Orange County politics for over a decade, or Charlie, who's been running for stuff in St. Pete for thirty years now — just not the same type of connections to the local political scene.

[Wormless Gourd]

Demings is the easily the strongest candidate, but she won't make it through the primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Every Gov except Laura Kelly and Chris Sununu who can lose can lose to Molly Kelly whom almost lost to her in 2018 are above 50% and Make or DeWine only s 60% and Wolf which is an open seat is at 53% and so is Evers, and so is Kemp DUE TO COVID, GOVS JUST LIKE PREZ DONT LOSE WITH 53% APPROVALS

DeSantis is at 53%, Covid has made Govs ENTRENCHED, just like Whitmer

Deming's like Beasley would lose, CRIST is the strongest but DeSantis is at 53%

[Sir Mohamed]

Crist will get within 4 points of DeSantis. Fried probably cuts that down to the 2-3% range, but I don't see Dems flipping Florida in a Biden midterm.

DeSantis has a +20 approval rate so I doubt that he is going to underperform Trump, I guess that polarisation will make the race a bit closer than his approval rate would suggest but any democrat is probably going to lose by at least 6/7 points, and likely more. DeSantis could even win Miami Dade.

Florida governor races are always close, and DeSantis is too closely tied with Trump.That isn't a bad thing per se, but Democrats will be enthused to show up for him and Fried would be manage to capture that anti-Trump/DeSantis hate at the polls.

This is a very lazy argument...

Indiana 2012/2016 gov races were close so the 2020 must be close too...

The party which holds the power in DC can not win the VA gov race so Cucinelli is going to prevail in VA...

You see, the problem with these patterns is that they are true until they break, but they are not some sort of eternal rules

Also judging from polls you have a good number of voters who voted Biden and who approve DeSantis, I'm not sure how running on " a anti DeSantis hate message " is going to work with them, the anti DeSantis/Trump base is simply far too small to win a statewide race in FL

Yup, I agree. It's not even true for FL before 2010. Crist himself was easily elected as the GOP nominee in 2006 despite his now former party losing both Houses of congress and Nelson winning reelection with 60% of the vote.

That said, I don't think Crist is a bad candidate, but he's entering this race as an underdog. Wasn't the case in 2013. My prediction is that polls will show this race competitive throughout this year and well into Q2 of 2022, but DeSantis will pull ahead by mid to high single digits in summer and fall and then win by a margin of anywhere between 7 and 11 pts. Just hope Dems won't fall for the early polls (yet again).

[S019]

Some of the takes in this thread are bodering on self parody. High single digits? Seriously? This is Florida, an actually close state not Ohio.

[Sir Mohamed]

Some of the takes in this thread are bodering on self parody. High single digits? Seriously? This is Florida, an actually close state not Ohio.

Rubio won by 8 in 2016 and Trump by 4 in 2020, while latter was a more Dem friendly year. In a bese case scenario, Crist comes within 3 or 4 pts, but I don't think that's going to happen as of today. DeSantis will win by 7 to 11 pts. Happy to be proven wrong in Nov. 2022 and you're welcome to bump my posts if the Dem gets within 1 point or even wins.

[libertpaulian]

Looks like the Fried stans on #Resistance Twitter will have to look for another idol to worship:

https://twitter.com/dsamuelsohn/status/1390448663772733443

[Lognog]

Looks like the Fried stans on #Resistance Twitter will have to look for another idol to worship:

https://twitter.com/dsamuelsohn/status/1390448663772733443

to be fair it's pretty easy for her to counter that Crist was literally a Republican like a decade ago

[AlterEgo]

Crist will get within 4 points of DeSantis. Fried probably cuts that down to the 2-3% range, but I don't see Dems flipping Florida in a Biden midterm.

DeSantis has a +20 approval rate so I doubt that he is going to underperform Trump, I guess that polarisation will make the race a bit closer than his approval rate would suggest but any democrat is probably going to lose by at least 6/7 points, and likely more. DeSantis could even win Miami Dade.

Florida governor races are always close, and DeSantis is too closely tied with Trump. That isn't a bad thing per se, but Democrats will be enthused to show up for him and Fried would be manage to capture that anti-Trump/DeSantis hate at the polls.

FL presidential races were also "always" close too, until, you know, last time it comparatively wasn't. Things change.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

I will vote for Demings if she runs

[Sir Mohamed]

Hung out at Trump's DC Hotel means... they had some kind of intimate relationship? Ugh, ugh.

[lfromnj]

Hung out at Trump's DC Hotel means... they had some kind of intimate relationship? Ugh, ugh.

Im probably guessing Weed lobbying lol.

Is that surprising the "dude weed lmao" AG woman would lobby one of the few Republicans and especially one from her state that supports weed legalization.

[S019]

Crist will get within 4 points of DeSantis. Fried probably cuts that down to the 2-3% range, but I don't see Dems flipping Florida in a Biden midterm.

DeSantis has a +20 approval rate so I doubt that he is going to underperform Trump, I guess that polarisation will make the race a bit closer than his approval rate would suggest but any democrat is probably going to lose by at least 6/7 points, and likely more. DeSantis could even win Miami Dade.

Florida governor races are always close, and DeSantis is too closely tied with Trump. That isn't a bad thing per se, but Democrats will be enthused to show up for him and Fried would be manage to capture that anti-Trump/DeSantis hate at the polls.

FL presidential races were also "always" close too, until, you know, last time it comparatively wasn't. Things change.

Last that I checked 3% is a pretty close margin

[UWS]

Now that Crist is running for Governor, the race for his House seat in FL-13 is either Toss-up or Lean R at least.

[AlterEgo]

Crist will get within 4 points of DeSantis. Fried probably cuts that down to the 2-3% range, but I don't see Dems flipping Florida in a Biden midterm.

DeSantis has a +20 approval rate so I doubt that he is going to underperform Trump, I guess that polarisation will make the race a bit closer than his approval rate would suggest but any democrat is probably going to lose by at least 6/7 points, and likely more. DeSantis could even win Miami Dade.

Florida governor races are always close, and DeSantis is too closely tied with Trump. That isn't a bad thing per se, but Democrats will be enthused to show up for him and Fried would be manage to capture that anti-Trump/DeSantis hate at the polls.

FL presidential races were also "always" close too, until, you know, last time it comparatively wasn't. Things change.

Last that I checked 3% is a pretty close margin

Knew someone would say that. That's why I threw in the word "comparatively." Sure, 3 points is close. In the grand scheme of FL results, though, it's a freaking chasm.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

[Biden his time]

I will vote for Demings if she runs

I agree in that Demings is better candidate than Crist or Fried.

Crist is known as a flip-flopper with no conviction and will be incredibly easy for DeSantis to attack.

Fried's whole shtick is that she's not DeSantis, she doesn't bring up anything else and doesn't give voters anything to vote for other than not being the big scary Republican in the Governor's mansion. She's gonna choke hard come 2022.


Unfortunately, Demings also has a very high chance of losing against a popular incumbent like DeSantis, and this could tarnish her in the future. Maybe it's better for Democrats long-term if they run a sacrificial Crist in 2022. IMHO Democrats should focus on fixing their image among the Floridian people, and also should focus on down-ballot races and try to get more big names up through the ranks. Republicans absolutely dominate there right now and ending their juggernaut in the state house needs to be a priority for Democrats if they want to see success.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

All of them would win or lose against DeSantis by the same exact margin. I'm not naive enough to think most Florida voters judge their politicians based on anything other than the R or D next to their name. I just think Demings would be a better governor

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSabtis is gonna do poorly against Crist with Afro Americans, he only reaches out to Latinos