Would OH-SEN 2018 have been winnable for the GOP with a better candidate?

[VAR]

In 2018, polls showed Sherrod Brown crushing his R opponent, Jim Renacci, by as much as 17 points. Yet, Brown massively underperformed the polls and prevailed by only 7%. His performance was still impressive since Ohio Democrats didn't get particularly close to flipping a single statewide office in 2018, but his margin of victory has been considered 'underwhelming' given the nature of the 2018 midterms and the fact that Renacci was a terrible challenger (he was called "Ed FitzGerald with a driver's license" by his own party).

Could a better Republican candidate have kept the DeWine-Yost-LaRose-Sprague-Faber voters in the R column and increased Republican/rural/exurban turnout? Could he/she have beaten Brown?

[If my soul was made of stone]

Brown in 2018 was at the perfect intersection of anti-Trump sentiment and a desire for a check on Trump by both Ds and Rs and vague alignment with the executive on issues of trade and regional #populism , and would've been very tough to beat on either front. The amount of 2x Trump counties he carried in between the two presidential contests is astounding. Obviously the GOP completely punted the race, but I'm not sure there would've been anyone better on the bench with strong Trump-type appeal without being an absolute loon like Jim Jordan. I lean towards No, but weakly since it's 2010s Ohio.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yes, but I don't think it would've been easy, but the GOP had much lower hanging fruit that cycle too. In hindsight though, even though Brown underperformed polls, a 7 point win on the federal level for a Democrat in OH is really impressive. It shows Democrats still do have a narrow sliver of hope left in the buck-eye state if they limit rural losses and run up the margins in NE OH.

[MT Treasurer]

A Republican was able to beat a long-time Democratic incumbent in a state that is fundamentally less Republican (FL) with a scorched-earth campaign. It would have been tough, but I do think Trump's approval rating (according to the exit poll, which showed it as the exact inverse of Brown's margin) was high enough that a competent challenger (e.g. a popular R governor -- think Kasich before he went #NeverTrump or whatever, maybe even Husted) could have pulled it off.

[PAK Man]

I don't think so. I think Brown would have won regardless of who his opponent was. People are quick to dismiss a red state as meaning a Democrat can't win, but clearly that's not the case (Jon Tester and Joe Manchin say hi). Plus, Brown seems to be the perfect fit for Ohio.

[Alcibiades]

Probably not. The climate around that Senate race felt much more like Michigan or Wisconsin than West Virginia or Indiana.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

West Virginia, Ohio, Montana, and Arizona were all winnable for Republicans in 2018 with stronger candidates.