Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2021, 10:13:42 PM » |
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IRL Democrats had a huge House majority and controlled 25/44 state delegations, so they would be able to elect Cleveland unilaterally. If you assume some uniform swing away from Democrats, its possible they could lose their 1-seat majorities in OH and WI along with the very close race for WY-AL, in which case they are down to 22/44 and a deal has to be made. The Populists controlled the state delegations in CO and KS, and they held the decisive 7th seat in the California delegation which was split 3R/3D/1P.
By far the most likely outcome is that the deal between the Populists and Democrats happens 3 years earlier than IRL and they elect Cleveland in the House in exchange for several policy concessions.
The Senate was 42D/38R/3P IRL, so it's very possible that Democrats would need the Populists to pick the VP in the Senate as well, assuming Republicans and Populists do a bit better in the state legislatures.
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