Largest Swings in the Cities

[texas_progressive]

In the three largest cities in America, there was a swing against Biden. NYC, LA and Chicago had small-to-moderate swings against Biden. Yet, in other cities such as Pittsburgh, Seattle and Minneapolis he did better. What were the swings in other major cities and what were the swings there? Also, why did certain cities swing the way they did.

[AGA]

Minneapolis, Seattle, and Pittsburgh are whiter than the other cities you mentioned.

[It's Time.]

Biden did well in White areas that are not rural. He did not do well in Rural white areas or non-white areas (for a democrat)

[texas_progressive]

Biden did well in White areas that are not rural. He did not do well in Rural white areas or non-white areas (for a democrat)

Agreed. Biden didn't do as well amkng urban minority voters as Clinton, however, his urban losses were less so in predominantly-black areas, as compared to predominantly-Hispanic areas. Of the three largest cities the biggest swing was in Los Angeles of approximately 7 pps towards Trump. Biden did better in Baltimore city, surprisingly, and proves my point that not all minority groups turned on Biden. The 4 pps. swing in Philadelphia is primarily due to Hispanics and Whites, not blacks. There was a tiny swing of 2 pps. in Detroit city, hardly making a budge. Another interesting thing I noticed is that not all Hispanics turned on the Dems. I have found out that Hispanics in traditionally conservative suburbs of Austin and Dallas actually threw more support behind Biden than Clinton.

[Sailor Haumea]

Colorado Springs swung like 12 points towards Dems from 2016 to 2020.

[mpbond]

Biden did well in White areas that are not rural. He did not do well in Rural white areas or non-white areas (for a democrat)

Agreed. Biden didn't do as well amkng urban minority voters as Clinton, however, his urban losses were less so in predominantly-black areas, as compared to predominantly-Hispanic areas. Of the three largest cities the biggest swing was in Los Angeles of approximately 7 pps towards Trump. Biden did better in Baltimore city, surprisingly, and proves my point that not all minority groups turned on Biden. The 4 pps. swing in Philadelphia is primarily due to Hispanics and Whites, not blacks. There was a tiny swing of 2 pps. in Detroit city, hardly making a budge. Another interesting thing I noticed is that not all Hispanics turned on the Dems. I have found out that Hispanics in traditionally conservative suburbs of Austin and Dallas actually threw more support behind Biden than Clinton.

That is definitely a pattern. Places like the majority-hispanic Los Angeles Suburb of Whittier, which is wealthier and more educated than other hispanic majority LA suburbs, swung less than a point towards Trump. This is compared to the 10-20 point swing to Trump other Hispanic communities in the LA area saw. There was also less of a swing to Trump in wealthier Asian suburbs as well, compared to poorer ones. Education levels likely played a very big role, similar to how it did among white people.

[MRS. MEE SUM CHU]

Biden did well in White areas that are not rural. He did not do well in Rural white areas or non-white areas (for a democrat)

Agreed. Biden didn't do as well amkng urban minority voters as Clinton, however, his urban losses were less so in predominantly-black areas, as compared to predominantly-Hispanic areas. Of the three largest cities the biggest swing was in Los Angeles of approximately 7 pps towards Trump. Biden did better in Baltimore city, surprisingly, and proves my point that not all minority groups turned on Biden. The 4 pps. swing in Philadelphia is primarily due to Hispanics and Whites, not blacks. There was a tiny swing of 2 pps. in Detroit city, hardly making a budge. Another interesting thing I noticed is that not all Hispanics turned on the Dems. I have found out that Hispanics in traditionally conservative suburbs of Austin and Dallas actually threw more support behind Biden than Clinton.

That is definitely a pattern. Places like the majority-hispanic Los Angeles Suburb of Whittier, which is wealthier and more educated than other hispanic majority LA suburbs, swung less than a point towards Trump. This is compared to the 10-20 point swing to Trump other Hispanic communities in the LA area saw. There was also less of a swing to Trump in wealthier Asian suburbs as well, compared to poorer ones. Education levels likely played a very big role, similar to how it did among white people.

And yet the poorer/less educated Latino/Asian suburbs still voted noticeably more D than the richer ones- just by less than in 2016 or 2012.

The differences in the Asian vote in the San Gabriel Valley are astounding as well and there aren't even ethnic differences within the Asian vote to take into account. San Marino (78% college educated) swung to Biden by 5 points and Arcadia (55% college educated) swung to Biden by two points while just down the road, the city of Rosemead (20% College educated and only 66% high school graduates!!) swung to Trump by 20 points!

Context- San Marino and Arcadia were both around 58-39 Biden, while Rosemead was like 66-32 Biden. According to Statistical Atlas...

San Marino is 55% Asian (45% ethnic Chinese), 33% Non-Hispanic White, 75% college+, and has a median household income of ~$140k.

Arcadia is 59% Asian (44% ethnic Chinese), 23% Non-Hispanic White, 61% college+, and has a median household income of ~$84k.

Rosemead is 60% Asian (36% ethnic Chinese, 14% Vietnamese), 34% Latino (4% Non-Hispanic White), 22% college+ (34% no HS diploma), and has a median household income of ~$46k.

I'm guessing the Chinese American communities in these cities originate from different immigrant waves. San Marino in particular has a high proportion of self-identified Taiwanese Americans.

[texas_progressive]

Biden did well in White areas that are not rural. He did not do well in Rural white areas or non-white areas (for a democrat)

Agreed. Biden didn't do as well amkng urban minority voters as Clinton, however, his urban losses were less so in predominantly-black areas, as compared to predominantly-Hispanic areas. Of the three largest cities the biggest swing was in Los Angeles of approximately 7 pps towards Trump. Biden did better in Baltimore city, surprisingly, and proves my point that not all minority groups turned on Biden. The 4 pps. swing in Philadelphia is primarily due to Hispanics and Whites, not blacks. There was a tiny swing of 2 pps. in Detroit city, hardly making a budge. Another interesting thing I noticed is that not all Hispanics turned on the Dems. I have found out that Hispanics in traditionally conservative suburbs of Austin and Dallas actually threw more support behind Biden than Clinton.

That is definitely a pattern. Places like the majority-hispanic Los Angeles Suburb of Whittier, which is wealthier and more educated than other hispanic majority LA suburbs, swung less than a point towards Trump. This is compared to the 10-20 point swing to Trump other Hispanic communities in the LA area saw. There was also less of a swing to Trump in wealthier Asian suburbs as well, compared to poorer ones. Education levels likely played a very big role, similar to how it did among white people.

The other major pattern in this election is that in non-central core city areas (suburban) areas that Clinton did better than Obama in, swung hard against Trump. The amount of vote-splitting was amazing. Biden did better than O'Rourke in Collin County, TX. Trump won Collin County by 4%, O'Rourke lost by 6%. Hegar did much better in the Senate Race (down 12%) versus the 2018 Governor's race in 2018 (Valdez down by 18%). Biden outran O'Rourke in Collin and Denton counties.

[Gracile]

In addition to the above statements, certain white parts of several cities tended to have larger third-party performances relative to the nation and to non-white parts of the same cities (thinking of the Green Party specifically here). Part of the reason why some urban white neighborhoods saw swings toward Biden was that he consolidated support among left-wing 2016 third-party voters.

[texas_progressive]

In addition to the above statements, certain white parts of several cities tended to have larger third-party performances relative to the nation and to non-white parts of the same cities (thinking of the Green Party specifically here). Part of the reason why some urban white neighborhoods saw swings toward Biden was that he consolidated support among left-wing 2016 third-party voters.

In many of these areas Biden's total is roughly equal to Clinton's vote + all 3rd party votes. It's almost as if he consolidated virtually the entire 3rd party vote behind him.