Why Did Carter Get No SCOTUS Appointments?

[Skill and Chance]

This is very rare.  Carter is the only president to serve a full term or longer and get 0 SCOTUS appointments.  The 2 most left-leaning justices were both in their 70's at the time and had served through 8 years of a Republican WH, so I find it quite surprising no one retired?

[Donerail]

Because the Justices are individuals, with their own personal desires and wills, and partisan considerations can rank rather low on their list of priorities.

To your specific point, Carter tried to get Marshall to retire and Marshall told him to eat sh**t and die.

[brucejoel99]

To your specific point, Carter tried to get Marshall to retire and Marshall told him to eat sh**t and die.

And Clarence Thomas thanked Marshall greatly as he dedicated 3 decades of his life to destroying Marshall's legacy.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Basically the Dems really screwed themselves with their appointments in the 60s and then there were basically 24 years of GOP picks (since Carter didn’t get any, as stated). One of Clinton’s picks (RBG) of course just died and then Breyer is still on the court at like 85 or whatever.

Kennedy:
Byron White: 31 years, retired and replaced by RBG under Clinton.
Arthur Goldberg: 3 years, retired and replaced by Abe Fortas under LBJ

LBJ
Abe Fortas: 3 years, retired and replaced by Harry Blackmun under Nixon
Thurgood Marshall: 24 years, retired and replaced by Clarence Thomas under GHWB

The combo of Goldberg followed by Fortas was just awful. From what I can tell, LBJ wanted to replace Goldberg with his friend Abe Fortas and succeeded in doing so. Fortas was basically an ethics bomb, but LBJ in probably the worst domestic policy move he made (Vietnam obviously being the worst overall) decided to try to elevate Fortas to Chief Justice after Earl Warren retired. That failed and Fortas resigned a few months later, in the Nixon administration following yet another scandal.

As to Marshall, it’s hard to say if he would have lasted into the Clinton administration (he died 4 days after the inauguration) and I wouldn’t blame him for being mad if Carter wanted to replace him given that he served 10-11 years past the end of the Carter admin. That’s just kind of one of those unfortunate things.

As to Trump getting three picks, the way that I see it, either Gorsuch or Barrett is essentially a stolen seat. I can see the argument for one, but not the other. I don’t care which one you pick, but one was essentially stolen by the GOP. Sadly, Gorsuch is my favorite of Trump’s picks. Kavanaugh for all of his issues was legitimate, but he really shouldn’t be on the court with all of his issues. Count me as being suspicious regarding Kennedy’s resignation. Gorsuch has been a good replacement for Scalia. Scalia always had a few positions that I liked regarding civil liberties and Gorsuch seems to be in the same mold. His support of Native American rights is refreshing.

/rant

[Skill and Chance]

Basically the Dems really screwed themselves with their appointments in the 60s and then there were basically 24 years of GOP picks (since Carter didn’t get any, as stated). One of Clinton’s picks (RBG) of course just died and then Breyer is still on the court at like 85 or whatever.

Kennedy:
Byron White: 31 years, retired and replaced by RBG under Clinton.
Arthur Goldberg: 3 years, retired and replaced by Abe Fortas under LBJ

LBJ
Abe Fortas: 3 years, retired and replaced by Harry Blackmun under Nixon
Thurgood Marshall: 24 years, retired and replaced by Clarence Thomas under GHWB

The combo of Goldberg followed by Fortas was just awful. From what I can tell, LBJ wanted to replace Goldberg with his friend Abe Fortas and succeeded in doing so. Fortas was basically an ethics bomb, but LBJ in probably the worst domestic policy move he made (Vietnam obviously being the worst overall) decided to try to elevate Fortas to Chief Justice after Earl Warren retired. That failed and Fortas resigned a few months later, in the Nixon administration following yet another scandal.

As to Marshall, it’s hard to say if he would have lasted into the Clinton administration (he died 4 days after the inauguration) and I wouldn’t blame him for being mad if Carter wanted to replace him given that he served 10-11 years past the end of the Carter admin. That’s just kind of one of those unfortunate things.

As to Trump getting three picks, the way that I see it, either Gorsuch or Barrett is essentially a stolen seat. I can see the argument for one, but not the other. I don’t care which one you pick, but one was essentially stolen by the GOP. Sadly, Gorsuch is my favorite of Trump’s picks. Kavanaugh for all of his issues was legitimate, but he really shouldn’t be on the court with all of his issues. Count me as being suspicious regarding Kennedy’s resignation. Gorsuch has been a good replacement for Scalia. Scalia always had a few positions that I liked regarding civil liberties and Gorsuch seems to be in the same mold. His support of Native American rights is refreshing.

/rant

White had an interesting socon side that made him something of a reverse Kennedy (but not quite a reverse Souter).  Goldberg passed away in 1990, so he would have needed to retire under Carter to keep the seat left-leaning.

But the 3 most significant shifts are the Goldberg->Fortas->Blackmun mess, Marshall->Thomas, and Ginsburg->Barrett.  So 2 older justices declining a chance to retire when they could be sure of an ideologically similar successor, and 1 really weird case of a young, healthy justice being pushed out by a president with the same ideology in favor of someone who was corrupt as heck.   

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Basically the Dems really screwed themselves with their appointments in the 60s and then there were basically 24 years of GOP picks (since Carter didn’t get any, as stated). One of Clinton’s picks (RBG) of course just died and then Breyer is still on the court at like 85 or whatever.

Kennedy:
Byron White: 31 years, retired and replaced by RBG under Clinton.
Arthur Goldberg: 3 years, retired and replaced by Abe Fortas under LBJ

LBJ
Abe Fortas: 3 years, retired and replaced by Harry Blackmun under Nixon
Thurgood Marshall: 24 years, retired and replaced by Clarence Thomas under GHWB

The combo of Goldberg followed by Fortas was just awful. From what I can tell, LBJ wanted to replace Goldberg with his friend Abe Fortas and succeeded in doing so. Fortas was basically an ethics bomb, but LBJ in probably the worst domestic policy move he made (Vietnam obviously being the worst overall) decided to try to elevate Fortas to Chief Justice after Earl Warren retired. That failed and Fortas resigned a few months later, in the Nixon administration following yet another scandal.

As to Marshall, it’s hard to say if he would have lasted into the Clinton administration (he died 4 days after the inauguration) and I wouldn’t blame him for being mad if Carter wanted to replace him given that he served 10-11 years past the end of the Carter admin. That’s just kind of one of those unfortunate things.

As to Trump getting three picks, the way that I see it, either Gorsuch or Barrett is essentially a stolen seat. I can see the argument for one, but not the other. I don’t care which one you pick, but one was essentially stolen by the GOP. Sadly, Gorsuch is my favorite of Trump’s picks. Kavanaugh for all of his issues was legitimate, but he really shouldn’t be on the court with all of his issues. Count me as being suspicious regarding Kennedy’s resignation. Gorsuch has been a good replacement for Scalia. Scalia always had a few positions that I liked regarding civil liberties and Gorsuch seems to be in the same mold. His support of Native American rights is refreshing.

/rant

White had an interesting socon side that made him something of a reverse Kennedy (but not quite a reverse Souter).  Goldberg passed away in 1990, so he would have needed to retire under Carter to keep the seat left-leaning.

But the 3 most significant shifts are the Goldberg->Fortas->Blackmun mess, Marshall->Thomas, and Ginsburg->Barrett.  So 2 older justices declining a chance to retire when they could be sure of an ideologically similar successor, and 1 really weird case of a young, healthy justice being pushed out by a president with the same ideology in favor of someone who was corrupt as heck.   

Yeah, I can kind of see Marshall not resigning, it’s tough when it’s been 10ish years of Republican presidents and you’re getting really old. RBG on the other hand rolled the dice imo.

[StateBoiler]

BECAUSE THERE WERE NO VACANCIES

[Kingpoleon]

White had an interesting socon side that made him something of a reverse Kennedy (but not quite a reverse Souter).  Goldberg passed away in 1990, so he would have needed to retire under Carter to keep the seat left-leaning.

But the 3 most significant shifts are the Goldberg->Fortas->Blackmun mess, Marshall->Thomas, and Ginsburg->Barrett.  So 2 older justices declining a chance to retire when they could be sure of an ideologically similar successor, and 1 really weird case of a young, healthy justice being pushed out by a president with the same ideology in favor of someone who was corrupt as heck.  

White being replaced by RBG was a pretty strong shift in the makeup of the Court, too. Also, if it weren’t for the Goldberg resignation, we would probably not have seen Roe v. Wade.

I should further note that I believe Byron White was the only one who found campaign donation limits constitutional.

[mianfei]

BECAUSE THERE WERE NO VACANCIES

That is the obvious answer, and what is more, I am sure Carter when running for president in 1976 expected zero vacancies and planned for no vacancies in a 1977 to 1981 term. Looking further back, the reason Carter got no appointments – a historical fact that greatly shapes the Court to this day – can be seen from the fact that the birth years for Justices who might have been expected to retire between 1977 and 1981 were from (approximately) 1892 to 1902. Of the (five) Justices born in that period:

• Wiley Blount Rutledge (born in 1894) died in an accident in 1949
• William Orville Douglas (born in 1898) died in 1980 but was physically incapable of serving on the Court beyond the 1974/1975 term
• John Marshall Harlan II (born in 1899), died in 1971
• Thomas Campbell Clark (born in 1899), died in 1977 but see below
• Charles Evans Whittaker (born in 1901), died in 1973 but resigned from the Court in 1962

Clark constitutes the key possibility for Carter getting an appointment. If Clark, alongside Goldberg, had stayed on the bench – assuming he did not become too ill to continue his work – Johnson would have obtained no appointments, but Carter would have obtained one in his first year to replace the centrist Texan when he died in June 1977. Given the demonstrable, but generally overlooked, unpopularity of the Warren Court’s decisions even when Johnson was winning a landslide over Barry Goldwater – in one poll, 85 percent of respondents opposed Engel v. Vitale banning prayer in public schools – Johnson ought to have been leery of creating a Court more liberal than the one he inherited in 1963. Nor did Johnson require the extremely liberal Fortas and Marshall for his programs to pass the Supreme Court: Clark himself seldom voted against them and Goldberg was just as liberal as Johnson’s appointees.

Carter’s numerous – in fact unusually so – lower court appointments do not provide definite details as to the ideology of the Justice with whom he would have replaced Clark had he stayed on the bench until his death. However, in ‘A Bench Tilting Right’ from the October 30, 2004 Washington Post, Cass R. Sunstein and David Schkade demonstrate that Clinton’s appointees to all federal courts were comparably conservative to those of Nixon and Ford (and, though none served past 1988, Eisenhower). This suggests a Carter appointee would have been to the left of anyone on the Court between 1991/1992 (Marshall’s retirement) and 2008/2009 (Sotomayor’s appointment), and could have liberalized the Court much more if Clarence Thomas was not on the bench.

The reactionary Trump Court is certainly a child of Carter receiving no appointments, but it is just as much as the Reagan Court, ultimately a child of Lyndon Johnson’s arrogance as David A. Kaplan expressed in kinder terms in September 1989.

[cwh2018]

Just an issue of timing and a bit of an anomaly really. Nixon got 4 picks in his first term alone and then Ford got a fifth pick for that GOP administration and Marshall was appointed at the end of the Johnson/Kennedy admin meaning there was only a possibility of 3 seats to  pick from, and of those 3 Brennan was the oldest at 70 at the start of the term.  If Carter had been re-elected Brennan may have retired in 83 or 84.  Potter Stewart and White were especially young for Scotus, as they along with Thomas are the only people appointed to the court under 45 after the second world war.


We could be in for a similarly weird situation with Biden as he could very well serve for 2 terms and only get 1 nomination or some variation of it.  Sotomayor could end up "trapped" on the court like Marshall and Brennan in some respects, particularly if a dem wins in 2024.  The dems will probably not have the senate making it a possibility that no nominee leaning left could be confirmed for her and she would be 75 when the 2028 election rolls around.  If the GOP nominee were to win 2 terms from there then she would have to go until she is 82/83 like Breyer now and supposedly her health is not the best.

The next GOP president is practically guaranteed 2 picks as I assume Alito will step down if the GOP wins in 2024 as he will be just turning 75 and he does not strike me as a guy who wants to be there for a long time and I assume Thomas will go after 33 years, and if not then Roberts will leave.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

W O Douglas retired and Ford appointed Stevens, he should of retired during Carter's term and all the others like Potter Stewart and Powell and Burger died or retired in the 80s

They were all moderates replaced by other moderates except for Rehnquist whom replaced Moderate Burger and Scalia took his seat.

Powell and Stewart were taken by OConnor and Kennedy.

If Carter got reelected he would have had to replace Potter Stewart

[Calthrina950]

Just an issue of timing and a bit of an anomaly really. Nixon got 4 picks in his first term alone and then Ford got a fifth pick for that GOP administration and Marshall was appointed at the end of the Johnson/Kennedy admin meaning there was only a possibility of 3 seats to  pick from, and of those 3 Brennan was the oldest at 70 at the start of the term.  If Carter had been re-elected Brennan may have retired in 83 or 84.  Potter Stewart and White were especially young for Scotus, as they along with Thomas are the only people appointed to the court under 45 after the second world war.


We could be in for a similarly weird situation with Biden as he could very well serve for 2 terms and only get 1 nomination or some variation of it.  Sotomayor could end up "trapped" on the court like Marshall and Brennan in some respects, particularly if a dem wins in 2024.  The dems will probably not have the senate making it a possibility that no nominee leaning left could be confirmed for her and she would be 75 when the 2028 election rolls around.  If the GOP nominee were to win 2 terms from there then she would have to go until she is 82/83 like Breyer now and supposedly her health is not the best.

The next GOP president is practically guaranteed 2 picks as I assume Alito will step down if the GOP wins in 2024 as he will be just turning 75 and he does not strike me as a guy who wants to be there for a long time and I assume Thomas will go after 33 years, and if not then Roberts will leave.

Thomas seems to be determined to become the longest-serving Associate Justice in the Court's history, and I could very well see him remaining on the bench until he dies. But I'd agree with you about Sotomayor, and I think it's possible that Roberts might retire under the next Republican President. Interestingly enough, every Chief Justice over the past 68 years has been appointed by a Republican President. The last Chief Justice to be appointed by a Democratic President (Fred M. Vinson), served from 1946-1953. Lyndon Johnson had the opportunity to replace Earl Warren in 1968, but he botched it by choosing the ethically dubious and controversial Abe Fortas.

Had Johnson nominated someone less controversial, then the legacy of the Warren Court would have been cemented further, and it would have had a major impact on the Court's direction. A Johnson-appointed Chief Justice-assuming he had chosen someone in their early 50s who served for ~20-30 years-would probably have meant that neither Burger nor Rehnquist would have ever obtained the position.

[The Mikado]

This is very rare.  Carter is the only president to serve a full term or longer and get 0 SCOTUS appointments.  The 2 most left-leaning justices were both in their 70's at the time and had served through 8 years of a Republican WH, so I find it quite surprising no one retired?

There have been plenty of terms in which there were no vacancies. Clinton's 2nd Term and W's 1st Term both had no vacancies, and if W had been a 1 term president, Kerry would've gotten to replace Rehnquist at least (O'Connor probably doesn't retire). Obama didn't get an appointment in his 2nd term even though there was a vacancy.

That means out of the last 11 4 year presidential terms, 4 didn't have an appointment made: Carter, Clinton's 2nd term, W's 1st term, and Obama's 2nd term.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

He didn't get any Scotus appointment but he packed the sh**t out of the lower courts, the dems basically got a bipartisan bill through doubling the size of the courts and with there large senate they were able to get judges through efficiently. He still holds the record for the most number of judicial appointments in a single presidential term


cite

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

He didn't get any Scotus appointment but he packed the sh**t out of the lower courts, the dems basically got a bipartisan bill through doubling the size of the courts and with there large senate they were able to get judges through efficiently. He still holds the record for the most number of judicial appointments in a single presidential term


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_judges_appointed_by_Jimmy_Carter

TIL

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

He didn't get any Scotus appointment but he packed the sh**t out of the lower courts, the dems basically got a bipartisan bill through doubling the size of the courts and with there large senate they were able to get judges through efficiently. He still holds the record for the most number of judicial appointments in a single presidential term


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_judges_appointed_by_Jimmy_Carter

TIL

He made a lot of incredibly progressive judicial choices including Reinhardt who famously said the supreme court "They can't catch 'em all" after having several of his decision overruled by the supreme and ruled assisted-suicide was a conditional right, (a sexual harrsment scandal that came out after his death in 2018 does damage much of his legacy) and RGB to the DC circut.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Reinhardt

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

He didn't get any Scotus appointment but he packed the sh**t out of the lower courts, the dems basically got a bipartisan bill through doubling the size of the courts and with there large senate they were able to get judges through efficiently. He still holds the record for the most number of judicial appointments in a single presidential term


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_judges_appointed_by_Jimmy_Carter

TIL

He made a lot of incredibly progressive judicial choices including Reinhardt who famously said the supreme court "They can't catch 'em all" after having several of his decision overruled by the supreme and ruled assisted-suicide was a conditional right, (a sexual harrsment scandal that came out after his death in 2018 does damage much of his legacy) and RGB to the DC circut.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Reinhardt

You learn something new every day.

[Skill and Chance]

Just an issue of timing and a bit of an anomaly really. Nixon got 4 picks in his first term alone and then Ford got a fifth pick for that GOP administration and Marshall was appointed at the end of the Johnson/Kennedy admin meaning there was only a possibility of 3 seats to  pick from, and of those 3 Brennan was the oldest at 70 at the start of the term.  If Carter had been re-elected Brennan may have retired in 83 or 84.  Potter Stewart and White were especially young for Scotus, as they along with Thomas are the only people appointed to the court under 45 after the second world war.


We could be in for a similarly weird situation with Biden as he could very well serve for 2 terms and only get 1 nomination or some variation of it.  Sotomayor could end up "trapped" on the court like Marshall and Brennan in some respects, particularly if a dem wins in 2024.  The dems will probably not have the senate making it a possibility that no nominee leaning left could be confirmed for her and she would be 75 when the 2028 election rolls around.  If the GOP nominee were to win 2 terms from there then she would have to go until she is 82/83 like Breyer now and supposedly her health is not the best.

The next GOP president is practically guaranteed 2 picks as I assume Alito will step down if the GOP wins in 2024 as he will be just turning 75 and he does not strike me as a guy who wants to be there for a long time and I assume Thomas will go after 33 years, and if not then Roberts will leave.

Interesting.  Biden almost certainly gets to appoint someone to Breyer's seat later this year or next, so he's ahead of Carter.  Beyond that, it does look unlikely for him to get a second seat, unless Dems hold the senate much longer than expected.  Thomas and Alito can almost surely wait for 2025, or for Senate Republicans to hold the seat open in 2023 in the worst case.  Given that the next 2 years are probably the only Dem President/Dem Senate alignment until the 2033+, it would make sense for Sotomayor to consider stepping down before 2022 if she cares strongly about having an ideologically similar successor, but she is under 70, so I doubt she will do this.  I give it a 25% chance.

The other possibility is really pronounced split between Roberts and the rest of the conservative block, to the point where he has lost all his influence and decides to just retire this year or next and give Dems CJ to spite them.  He's the same age as Sotomayor.  So far, though, I think he's pleasantly surprised by how much he's been able to shape the early post-RBG decisions by leaning on Kavanaugh.  Barrett also seems more willing to play ball and rule narrowly than most here assumed.  I'd give this maybe a 10% chance. 

[cwh2018]

Just an issue of timing and a bit of an anomaly really. Nixon got 4 picks in his first term alone and then Ford got a fifth pick for that GOP administration and Marshall was appointed at the end of the Johnson/Kennedy admin meaning there was only a possibility of 3 seats to  pick from, and of those 3 Brennan was the oldest at 70 at the start of the term.  If Carter had been re-elected Brennan may have retired in 83 or 84.  Potter Stewart and White were especially young for Scotus, as they along with Thomas are the only people appointed to the court under 45 after the second world war.

Thomas is the most conservative justice and his wife is closely linked with a number of conservative lobby groups so he will certainly retire under a GOP president.  The Gop legal groups also realise how close they came to losing the courts with Scalia's death.  It would not have been a guaranteed long-term deal as Clinton would have needed to replace Breyer and Ginsburg, but the legal groups were trying to edge Thomas out the door and he is only 72, which is very young by Scotus standards.  The Scalia scare will have been reinforced by Ginsburg refusing to resign and then being relaced by someone vastly different to her.  With the Garland situation conservatives also know they could have a vacancy blocked if the dems hold the senate if a vacancy happens under a GOP pres and dem senate.


We could be in for a similarly weird situation with Biden as he could very well serve for 2 terms and only get 1 nomination or some variation of it.  Sotomayor could end up "trapped" on the court like Marshall and Brennan in some respects, particularly if a dem wins in 2024.  The dems will probably not have the senate making it a possibility that no nominee leaning left could be confirmed for her and she would be 75 when the 2028 election rolls around.  If the GOP nominee were to win 2 terms from there then she would have to go until she is 82/83 like Breyer now and supposedly her health is not the best.

The next GOP president is practically guaranteed 2 picks as I assume Alito will step down if the GOP wins in 2024 as he will be just turning 75 and he does not strike me as a guy who wants to be there for a long time and I assume Thomas will go after 33 years, and if not then Roberts will leave.

Thomas seems to be determined to become the longest-serving Associate Justice in the Court's history, and I could very well see him remaining on the bench until he dies. But I'd agree with you about Sotomayor, and I think it's possible that Roberts might retire under the next Republican President. Interestingly enough, every Chief Justice over the past 68 years has been appointed by a Republican President. The last Chief Justice to be appointed by a Democratic President (Fred M. Vinson), served from 1946-1953. Lyndon Johnson had the opportunity to replace Earl Warren in 1968, but he botched it by choosing the ethically dubious and controversial Abe Fortas.

Had Johnson nominated someone less controversial, then the legacy of the Warren Court would have been cemented further, and it would have had a major impact on the Court's direction. A Johnson-appointed Chief Justice-assuming he had chosen someone in their early 50s who served for ~20-30 years-would probably have meant that neither Burger nor Rehnquist would have ever obtained the position.

Thomas is the most conservative justice and his wife is closely linked with a number of conservative lobby groups so he will certainly retire under a GOP president.  The Gop legal groups also realise how close they came to losing the courts with Scalia's death.  It would not have been a guaranteed long-term deal as Clinton would have needed to replace Breyer and Ginsburg, but the legal groups were trying to edge Thomas out the door and he is only 72, which is very young by Scotus standards.  The Scalia scare will have been reinforced by Ginsburg refusing to resign and then being relaced by someone vastly different to her.  With the Garland situation conservatives also know they could have a vacancy blocked if the dems hold the senate if a vacancy happens under a GOP pres and dem senate.

[cwh2018]

Just an issue of timing and a bit of an anomaly really. Nixon got 4 picks in his first term alone and then Ford got a fifth pick for that GOP administration and Marshall was appointed at the end of the Johnson/Kennedy admin meaning there was only a possibility of 3 seats to  pick from, and of those 3 Brennan was the oldest at 70 at the start of the term.  If Carter had been re-elected Brennan may have retired in 83 or 84.  Potter Stewart and White were especially young for Scotus, as they along with Thomas are the only people appointed to the court under 45 after the second world war.


We could be in for a similarly weird situation with Biden as he could very well serve for 2 terms and only get 1 nomination or some variation of it.  Sotomayor could end up "trapped" on the court like Marshall and Brennan in some respects, particularly if a dem wins in 2024.  The dems will probably not have the senate making it a possibility that no nominee leaning left could be confirmed for her and she would be 75 when the 2028 election rolls around.  If the GOP nominee were to win 2 terms from there then she would have to go until she is 82/83 like Breyer now and supposedly her health is not the best.

The next GOP president is practically guaranteed 2 picks as I assume Alito will step down if the GOP wins in 2024 as he will be just turning 75 and he does not strike me as a guy who wants to be there for a long time and I assume Thomas will go after 33 years, and if not then Roberts will leave.

Interesting.  Biden almost certainly gets to appoint someone to Breyer's seat later this year or next, so he's ahead of Carter.  Beyond that, it does look unlikely for him to get a second seat, unless Dems hold the senate much longer than expected.  Thomas and Alito can almost surely wait for 2025, or for Senate Republicans to hold the seat open in 2023 in the worst case.  Given that the next 2 years are probably the only Dem President/Dem Senate alignment until the 2033+, it would make sense for Sotomayor to consider stepping down before 2022 if she cares strongly about having an ideologically similar successor, but she is under 70, so I doubt she will do this.  I give it a 25% chance.

The other possibility is really pronounced split between Roberts and the rest of the conservative block, to the point where he has lost all his influence and decides to just retire this year or next and give Dems CJ to spite them.  He's the same age as Sotomayor.  I'd give this maybe a 10% chance.  

I think one thing with Scotus that commentators never mention with regards to longevity is the seniority system at the court.  Justices stay a long time to try and get into a situation where they can assign themselves major/landmark cases and you probably need to be the 2nd or third most senior justice, especially if the court is overall not with you.  Alito may well retire in 2025 after 20 years and have been assigned more landmark/major cases than Breyer or Ginsburg who both served for a quarter of a century and have very few major decisions between them.

[cwh2018]

I don't think Roberts would retire under a dem president as he is still a judicial conservative.
If Sotomayor were to retire at the end of the Biden presidency she would be only 70, she would be as young as Souter but have only been on the court for 15 years.  This would be the shortest spell in recent times with Lewis Powell being the most likely comparison as he served 15 and a half terms on the court, but he was also one of the oldest at 63 or 4 when appointed to the court. 

It should only be something she should consider if the democrats hold the senate in the  2022 elections she could leave in the summer of 2024 giving her 15 years on the court and would allow there to be at least 3 liberal seats for the next 12 or so years anyway.

[brucejoel99]

This is very rare.  Carter is the only president to serve a full term or longer and get 0 SCOTUS appointments.  The 2 most left-leaning justices were both in their 70's at the time and had served through 8 years of a Republican WH, so I find it quite surprising no one retired?

There have been plenty of terms in which there were no vacancies. Clinton's 2nd Term and W's 1st Term both had no vacancies, and if W had been a 1 term president, Kerry would've gotten to replace Rehnquist at least (O'Connor probably doesn't retire). Obama didn't get an appointment in his 2nd term even though there was a vacancy.

That means out of the last 11 4 year presidential terms, 4 didn't have an appointment made: Carter, Clinton's 2nd term, W's 1st term, and Obama's 2nd term.

I imagine O'Connor still retires because she didn't retire for ideological reasons (though she infamously celebrated what looked like W's. win on election night in 2000, she later grew to fear the kind of justice he'd replace her with, a fear which was ultimately borne out in Alito), but rather to take care of her husband who was ailing from Alzheimer's.

[Skill and Chance]

Just an issue of timing and a bit of an anomaly really. Nixon got 4 picks in his first term alone and then Ford got a fifth pick for that GOP administration and Marshall was appointed at the end of the Johnson/Kennedy admin meaning there was only a possibility of 3 seats to  pick from, and of those 3 Brennan was the oldest at 70 at the start of the term.  If Carter had been re-elected Brennan may have retired in 83 or 84.  Potter Stewart and White were especially young for Scotus, as they along with Thomas are the only people appointed to the court under 45 after the second world war.

Thomas is the most conservative justice and his wife is closely linked with a number of conservative lobby groups so he will certainly retire under a GOP president.  The Gop legal groups also realise how close they came to losing the courts with Scalia's death.  It would not have been a guaranteed long-term deal as Clinton would have needed to replace Breyer and Ginsburg, but the legal groups were trying to edge Thomas out the door and he is only 72, which is very young by Scotus standards.  The Scalia scare will have been reinforced by Ginsburg refusing to resign and then being relaced by someone vastly different to her.  With the Garland situation conservatives also know they could have a vacancy blocked if the dems hold the senate if a vacancy happens under a GOP pres and dem senate.


We could be in for a similarly weird situation with Biden as he could very well serve for 2 terms and only get 1 nomination or some variation of it.  Sotomayor could end up "trapped" on the court like Marshall and Brennan in some respects, particularly if a dem wins in 2024.  The dems will probably not have the senate making it a possibility that no nominee leaning left could be confirmed for her and she would be 75 when the 2028 election rolls around.  If the GOP nominee were to win 2 terms from there then she would have to go until she is 82/83 like Breyer now and supposedly her health is not the best.

The next GOP president is practically guaranteed 2 picks as I assume Alito will step down if the GOP wins in 2024 as he will be just turning 75 and he does not strike me as a guy who wants to be there for a long time and I assume Thomas will go after 33 years, and if not then Roberts will leave.

Thomas seems to be determined to become the longest-serving Associate Justice in the Court's history, and I could very well see him remaining on the bench until he dies. But I'd agree with you about Sotomayor, and I think it's possible that Roberts might retire under the next Republican President. Interestingly enough, every Chief Justice over the past 68 years has been appointed by a Republican President. The last Chief Justice to be appointed by a Democratic President (Fred M. Vinson), served from 1946-1953. Lyndon Johnson had the opportunity to replace Earl Warren in 1968, but he botched it by choosing the ethically dubious and controversial Abe Fortas.

Had Johnson nominated someone less controversial, then the legacy of the Warren Court would have been cemented further, and it would have had a major impact on the Court's direction. A Johnson-appointed Chief Justice-assuming he had chosen someone in their early 50s who served for ~20-30 years-would probably have meant that neither Burger nor Rehnquist would have ever obtained the position.

Thomas is the most conservative justice and his wife is closely linked with a number of conservative lobby groups so he will certainly retire under a GOP president.  The Gop legal groups also realise how close they came to losing the courts with Scalia's death.  It would not have been a guaranteed long-term deal as Clinton would have needed to replace Breyer and Ginsburg, but the legal groups were trying to edge Thomas out the door and he is only 72, which is very young by Scotus standards.  The Scalia scare will have been reinforced by Ginsburg refusing to resign and then being relaced by someone vastly different to her.  With the Garland situation conservatives also know they could have a vacancy blocked if the dems hold the senate if a vacancy happens under a GOP pres and dem senate.

Well, conservatives are pretty safe in the SCOTUS majority now until/unless the senate starts to structurally favor Democrats.  I think they will be disappointed with what Roberts and Kavanaugh deliver for them ideologically speaking, but there's basically no chance of the deciding vote on SCOTUS being left of Roberts until sometime in the 2030's now.  Thomas and Alito are about 10 years younger than Ginsburg and Breyer were when Scalia's seat came open, and about 10 years younger than Kennedy when he retired. 

[Calthrina950]

Just an issue of timing and a bit of an anomaly really. Nixon got 4 picks in his first term alone and then Ford got a fifth pick for that GOP administration and Marshall was appointed at the end of the Johnson/Kennedy admin meaning there was only a possibility of 3 seats to  pick from, and of those 3 Brennan was the oldest at 70 at the start of the term.  If Carter had been re-elected Brennan may have retired in 83 or 84.  Potter Stewart and White were especially young for Scotus, as they along with Thomas are the only people appointed to the court under 45 after the second world war.

Thomas is the most conservative justice and his wife is closely linked with a number of conservative lobby groups so he will certainly retire under a GOP president.  The Gop legal groups also realise how close they came to losing the courts with Scalia's death.  It would not have been a guaranteed long-term deal as Clinton would have needed to replace Breyer and Ginsburg, but the legal groups were trying to edge Thomas out the door and he is only 72, which is very young by Scotus standards.  The Scalia scare will have been reinforced by Ginsburg refusing to resign and then being relaced by someone vastly different to her.  With the Garland situation conservatives also know they could have a vacancy blocked if the dems hold the senate if a vacancy happens under a GOP pres and dem senate.


We could be in for a similarly weird situation with Biden as he could very well serve for 2 terms and only get 1 nomination or some variation of it.  Sotomayor could end up "trapped" on the court like Marshall and Brennan in some respects, particularly if a dem wins in 2024.  The dems will probably not have the senate making it a possibility that no nominee leaning left could be confirmed for her and she would be 75 when the 2028 election rolls around.  If the GOP nominee were to win 2 terms from there then she would have to go until she is 82/83 like Breyer now and supposedly her health is not the best.

The next GOP president is practically guaranteed 2 picks as I assume Alito will step down if the GOP wins in 2024 as he will be just turning 75 and he does not strike me as a guy who wants to be there for a long time and I assume Thomas will go after 33 years, and if not then Roberts will leave.

Thomas seems to be determined to become the longest-serving Associate Justice in the Court's history, and I could very well see him remaining on the bench until he dies. But I'd agree with you about Sotomayor, and I think it's possible that Roberts might retire under the next Republican President. Interestingly enough, every Chief Justice over the past 68 years has been appointed by a Republican President. The last Chief Justice to be appointed by a Democratic President (Fred M. Vinson), served from 1946-1953. Lyndon Johnson had the opportunity to replace Earl Warren in 1968, but he botched it by choosing the ethically dubious and controversial Abe Fortas.

Had Johnson nominated someone less controversial, then the legacy of the Warren Court would have been cemented further, and it would have had a major impact on the Court's direction. A Johnson-appointed Chief Justice-assuming he had chosen someone in their early 50s who served for ~20-30 years-would probably have meant that neither Burger nor Rehnquist would have ever obtained the position.

Thomas is the most conservative justice and his wife is closely linked with a number of conservative lobby groups so he will certainly retire under a GOP president.  The Gop legal groups also realise how close they came to losing the courts with Scalia's death.  It would not have been a guaranteed long-term deal as Clinton would have needed to replace Breyer and Ginsburg, but the legal groups were trying to edge Thomas out the door and he is only 72, which is very young by Scotus standards.  The Scalia scare will have been reinforced by Ginsburg refusing to resign and then being relaced by someone vastly different to her.  With the Garland situation conservatives also know they could have a vacancy blocked if the dems hold the senate if a vacancy happens under a GOP pres and dem senate.

You seem absolutely convinced of this? I've read otherwise, but if Thomas does retire under the next Republican President, it wouldn't be surprising.

[cwh2018]

Just an issue of timing and a bit of an anomaly really. Nixon got 4 picks in his first term alone and then Ford got a fifth pick for that GOP administration and Marshall was appointed at the end of the Johnson/Kennedy admin meaning there was only a possibility of 3 seats to  pick from, and of those 3 Brennan was the oldest at 70 at the start of the term.  If Carter had been re-elected Brennan may have retired in 83 or 84.  Potter Stewart and White were especially young for Scotus, as they along with Thomas are the only people appointed to the court under 45 after the second world war.

Thomas is the most conservative justice and his wife is closely linked with a number of conservative lobby groups so he will certainly retire under a GOP president.  The Gop legal groups also realise how close they came to losing the courts with Scalia's death.  It would not have been a guaranteed long-term deal as Clinton would have needed to replace Breyer and Ginsburg, but the legal groups were trying to edge Thomas out the door and he is only 72, which is very young by Scotus standards.  The Scalia scare will have been reinforced by Ginsburg refusing to resign and then being relaced by someone vastly different to her.  With the Garland situation conservatives also know they could have a vacancy blocked if the dems hold the senate if a vacancy happens under a GOP pres and dem senate.


We could be in for a similarly weird situation with Biden as he could very well serve for 2 terms and only get 1 nomination or some variation of it.  Sotomayor could end up "trapped" on the court like Marshall and Brennan in some respects, particularly if a dem wins in 2024.  The dems will probably not have the senate making it a possibility that no nominee leaning left could be confirmed for her and she would be 75 when the 2028 election rolls around.  If the GOP nominee were to win 2 terms from there then she would have to go until she is 82/83 like Breyer now and supposedly her health is not the best.

The next GOP president is practically guaranteed 2 picks as I assume Alito will step down if the GOP wins in 2024 as he will be just turning 75 and he does not strike me as a guy who wants to be there for a long time and I assume Thomas will go after 33 years, and if not then Roberts will leave.

Thomas seems to be determined to become the longest-serving Associate Justice in the Court's history, and I could very well see him remaining on the bench until he dies. But I'd agree with you about Sotomayor, and I think it's possible that Roberts might retire under the next Republican President. Interestingly enough, every Chief Justice over the past 68 years has been appointed by a Republican President. The last Chief Justice to be appointed by a Democratic President (Fred M. Vinson), served from 1946-1953. Lyndon Johnson had the opportunity to replace Earl Warren in 1968, but he botched it by choosing the ethically dubious and controversial Abe Fortas.

Had Johnson nominated someone less controversial, then the legacy of the Warren Court would have been cemented further, and it would have had a major impact on the Court's direction. A Johnson-appointed Chief Justice-assuming he had chosen someone in their early 50s who served for ~20-30 years-would probably have meant that neither Burger nor Rehnquist would have ever obtained the position.

Thomas is the most conservative justice and his wife is closely linked with a number of conservative lobby groups so he will certainly retire under a GOP president.  The Gop legal groups also realise how close they came to losing the courts with Scalia's death.  It would not have been a guaranteed long-term deal as Clinton would have needed to replace Breyer and Ginsburg, but the legal groups were trying to edge Thomas out the door and he is only 72, which is very young by Scotus standards.  The Scalia scare will have been reinforced by Ginsburg refusing to resign and then being relaced by someone vastly different to her.  With the Garland situation conservatives also know they could have a vacancy blocked if the dems hold the senate if a vacancy happens under a GOP pres and dem senate.

You seem absolutely convinced of this? I've read otherwise, but if Thomas does retire under the next Republican President, it wouldn't be surprising.

Thomas is the most conservative by vote and ideology and has been since he joined the court, he is the most conservative justice probably going back to FDR.  He is a higly partisan conservative individual who is closely aligned with everything to do with conservative GOP politics, this is not a big secret.

Thomas,Sotomayor and Alito in particular will want to retire under their party.