The South in primary season.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Is it just me, or is the fact that both parties depend heavily on the super racially polarized electorates of many Southern states in the primaries to win a bad thing for American democracy?

In other words, Democratic presidential candidates having to appeal to Southern blacks and Republicans having to appeal to Southern whites in their respective primaries to be nominated seems Problematic. Most of the country is not like the South!  And yet, it skews politics at the national level toward its own racial issues.

I guess this is a companion thread to the one about South Carolina having too much influence on the process. Anywho...

[RI]

Southern Republican whites are not dramatically different than Midwestern Republican whites or even many Northeastern Republican whites. Trump did better in NH than in SC and better in MA than in FL in 2016. He did about as well in AR and in VT on the same day.

NH and SC both voted for McCain in 2008.

[bee33]

Southern Republican whites are not dramatically different than Midwestern Republican whites or even many Northeastern Republican whites. Trump did better in NH than in SC and better in MA than in FL in 2016. He did about as well in AR and in VT on the same day.

NH and SC both voted for McCain in 2008.

Trump definitely would have lost a few southern states in a one on one matchup with Cruz or Rubio, like Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Virginia at the very least.

[Motorcity]

The state democratic parties in the southern states are dominated by their African American populations

A nominee will not win a general election without high black turnout in Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philadelphia.

So going to black churches in Charleston, Atlanta, Birmingham, and Memphis is good practice for the general

[SInNYC]

The state democratic parties in the southern states are dominated by their African American populations

A nominee will not win a general election without high black turnout in Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philadelphia.

So going to black churches in Charleston, Atlanta, Birmingham, and Memphis is good practice for the general

Its pretty clear that appealing to southern black churches in the primaries does not imply high black turnout in non-southern cities in the general election - Biden underperformed in the latter. And if you want more evidence, Hillary clobbered Bernie in the south, but black turnout was slightly below 2004 (and much below 2008-2012) in the general election.

I'm not saying you shouldnt go to black churches.

[Motorcity]

The state democratic parties in the southern states are dominated by their African American populations

A nominee will not win a general election without high black turnout in Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philadelphia.

So going to black churches in Charleston, Atlanta, Birmingham, and Memphis is good practice for the general

Its pretty clear that appealing to southern black churches in the primaries does not imply high black turnout in non-southern cities in the general election - Biden underperformed in the latter. And if you want more evidence, Hillary clobbered Bernie in the south, but black turnout was slightly below 2004 (and much below 2008-2012) in the general election.

I'm not saying you shouldn't go to black churches.

Context is important here

Of course black turnout was going to drop in 2016, Obama wasn't on the ticket

But Hillary came very close to winning, from the strength of black voters in Detroit and Philly. Of course it wasn't enough but she could have done it.

Someone like Pete Buttigieg, who couldn't get a single black vote in SC, showed he could not win in the upper Mid-West

[OSR stands with Israel]

Southern Republican whites are not dramatically different than Midwestern Republican whites or even many Northeastern Republican whites. Trump did better in NH than in SC and better in MA than in FL in 2016. He did about as well in AR and in VT on the same day.

NH and SC both voted for McCain in 2008.

That is false :






Also Trump lost under 30 whites in Kentucky while he won 60% of them in Georgia so that is not true at all

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/kentucky/5

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/georgia/5


So that isnt a true statement

[Samof94]

Is it just me, or is the fact that both parties depend heavily on the super racially polarized electorates of many Southern states in the primaries to win a bad thing for American democracy?

In other words, Democratic presidential candidates having to appeal to Southern blacks and Republicans having to appeal to Southern whites in their respective primaries to be nominated seems Problematic. Most of the country is not like the South!  And yet, it skews politics at the national level toward its own racial issues.

I guess this is a companion thread to the one about South Carolina having too much influence on the process. Anywho...

Last time I checked, over a third of the country lives in the South.

[Red Wall]

Southern Republican whites are not dramatically different than Midwestern Republican whites or even many Northeastern Republican whites. Trump did better in NH than in SC and better in MA than in FL in 2016. He did about as well in AR and in VT on the same day.

NH and SC both voted for McCain in 2008.

2016 says otherwise. Trump strongest states in the primary were in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic so yes they are different. In the south he counted with many splits between evengelicals (Cruz's base) and establishment (Rubio's) to win many states narrowly. In the Northeast he crushed opponents. If we divide the states in the Republican primary who voted until Indiana (when Cruz drops out), here are the results.

Trump majority: NY, CT, DE, PA, MD, RI, IN
Trump plurality and Trump > 2nd + 3rd place: NH, NV, AL, MA, MS, FL, AZ
Trump plurality but Trump < 2nd + 3rd place: SC, AR, GA, TN, VT, VA, KY, LA, HI, MI, MO, IL, NC
Trump loss: IA, AK, MN, OK, TX, KS, ME, ID, WY, OH, WI

So every state sans Indiana (and this one because it was the decider) that gave Trump a majority was either Mid-Atlantic or Northeastern. States where Trump had big pluralities are more of a mix between sunbelt and Northeast but the one who gave them the largest % (49, just shy of a majority) was northeastern Massachussets. His small plurality wins were largely southern aside from VT, IL and MO, he won 8 states by under 10 points and 5 of them are Southern. His losses were largely mountain, great plains and midwestern states (actually the last one proves his midwestern strength came mostly from non primary voters and Obama switchers). So there is a clear geographical difference between Republican voters.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Southern Republican whites are not dramatically different than Midwestern Republican whites or even many Northeastern Republican whites. Trump did better in NH than in SC and better in MA than in FL in 2016. He did about as well in AR and in VT on the same day.

NH and SC both voted for McCain in 2008.

Plus, Romney didn't win a single Deep Southern state in 2012.
And he won the late states AR, KY and WV only because the primary season had basically already been over at that time.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Someone like Pete Buttigieg, who couldn't get a single black vote in SC, showed he could not win in the upper Mid-West

That's a very farfetched, not to say bold hypothesis...

[AGA]

Southern Republican whites are not dramatically different than Midwestern Republican whites or even many Northeastern Republican whites. Trump did better in NH than in SC and better in MA than in FL in 2016. He did about as well in AR and in VT on the same day.

NH and SC both voted for McCain in 2008.

snip

He's talking about the primary.

[mikhaela]

Southern Republican whites are not dramatically different than Midwestern Republican whites or even many Northeastern Republican whites. Trump did better in NH than in SC and better in MA than in FL in 2016. He did about as well in AR and in VT on the same day.

NH and SC both voted for McCain in 2008.

Plus, Romney didn't win a single Southern state in 2012.
And he won the late states AR, KY and WV only because the primary season had basically already been over at that time.

He actually did win Florida and Virginia, but Santorum and Gingrich were not on the ballot in Virginia, (which I distinctly remember), and he lost most of the "southern" part of Florida (ironically the Northern part of the state) to Gingrich.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Southern Republican whites are not dramatically different than Midwestern Republican whites or even many Northeastern Republican whites. Trump did better in NH than in SC and better in MA than in FL in 2016. He did about as well in AR and in VT on the same day.

NH and SC both voted for McCain in 2008.

Plus, Romney didn't win a single Southern state in 2012.
And he won the late states AR, KY and WV only because the primary season had basically already been over at that time.

He actually did win Florida and Virginia, but Santorum and Gingrich were not on the ballot in Virginia, (which I distinctly remember), and he lost most of the "southern" part of Florida (ironically the Northern part of the state) to Gingrich.

I was referring to the Deep South only. I'm sorry!

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Is it just me, or is the fact that both parties depend heavily on the super racially polarized electorates of many Southern states in the primaries to win a bad thing for American democracy?

In other words, Democratic presidential candidates having to appeal to Southern blacks and Republicans having to appeal to Southern whites in their respective primaries to be nominated seems Problematic. Most of the country is not like the South!  And yet, it skews politics at the national level toward its own racial issues.

I guess this is a companion thread to the one about South Carolina having too much influence on the process. Anywho...

This is completely the wrong way round. The most radical constituency of the Democratic party on racial issues are younger, upper middle class, largely white liberals in cities in the west and northeast, not southern blacks. Who were the two most popular candidates in the Democratic primary among southern black voters? Biden, then Bloomberg (Mr. Stop and Frisk). Most southern black voters are culturally and politically moderate or conservative, not interested in polarising the country on racial issues but instead support the moderate candidate because they're pragmatic.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Yeah, you’re right.

[Del Tachi]

Southern Republicans are at least more moderate on economic issues, which turns out to be a winning recipe for the GOP.

Trump and GWB won a majority of Southern contests in 2016 and 2000, respectively

McCain and Romney did not

[OSR stands with Israel]

Southern Republicans are at least more moderate on economic issues, which turns out to be a winning recipe for the GOP.

Trump and GWB won a majority of Southern contests in 2016 and 2000, respectively

McCain and Romney did not

McCain and Romney were more moderate on economic issues than W and Trump were

[Del Tachi]

Southern Republicans are at least more moderate on economic issues, which turns out to be a winning recipe for the GOP.

Trump and GWB won a majority of Southern contests in 2016 and 2000, respectively

McCain and Romney did not

McCain and Romney were more moderate on economic issues than W and Trump were

Trump ran as an unapologetic protectionist and Dubya had his whole "compassionate conservative" shtick

More means testing for liberal policy ideas is not what "moderate" conservatives want. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Southern Republicans are at least more moderate on economic issues, which turns out to be a winning recipe for the GOP.

Trump and GWB won a majority of Southern contests in 2016 and 2000, respectively

McCain and Romney did not

McCain and Romney were more moderate on economic issues than W and Trump were

Trump ran as an unapologetic protectionist and Dubya had his whole "compassionate conservative" shtick

More means testing for liberal policy ideas is not what "moderate" conservatives want.  

Trump was the most right wing president economically since the 1920s.


McCain on the other was for campaign finance reform , voted against the Bush tax cuts etc while Romney was attacked by every republican in the 2012 race of being too liberal on economics and was accused of wanting to start a trade war as well

[darklordoftech]

Southern Republicans are at least more moderate on economic issues, which turns out to be a winning recipe for the GOP.

Trump and GWB won a majority of Southern contests in 2016 and 2000, respectively

McCain and Romney did not

Bush was the only alternative to McCain in 2000, and Trump benefitted from his primary opponents being spoilers for each other.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/timeline.php?year=2016&f=1&off=0&elect=2

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The map is overstating R support due to fact it was pre Insurrectionists, D's can made up significant ground among WC voters n IA, OH and NC and FL to some degree, Rubio is only 5 pts ahead of Grayson

[Chips]

Interesting thought.

[Alben Barkley]

Southern Republican whites are not dramatically different than Midwestern Republican whites or even many Northeastern Republican whites. Trump did better in NH than in SC and better in MA than in FL in 2016. He did about as well in AR and in VT on the same day.

NH and SC both voted for McCain in 2008.

That is false :






Also Trump lost under 30 whites in Kentucky while he won 60% of them in Georgia so that is not true at all

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/kentucky/5

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/georgia/5


So that isnt a true statement

Weird to think that Kentucky is actually more Democratic than Georgia if you just look at white and/or young people. Shows just how much racial polarization in Southern states is still a major factor, and more of one the farther South you go.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Southern Republican whites are not dramatically different than Midwestern Republican whites or even many Northeastern Republican whites. Trump did better in NH than in SC and better in MA than in FL in 2016. He did about as well in AR and in VT on the same day.

NH and SC both voted for McCain in 2008.

That is false :






Also Trump lost under 30 whites in Kentucky while he won 60% of them in Georgia so that is not true at all

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/kentucky/5

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/georgia/5


So that isnt a true statement

Weird to think that Kentucky is actually more Democratic than Georgia if you just look at white and/or young people. Shows just how much racial polarization in Southern states is still a major factor, and more of one the farther South you go.

Yah if Georgia whites voted like KY whites then GA would already be a Safe D state