OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Suburbia]

Lean/Likely R

Ryan is a good candidate. Sad that he had to run in 2022. He would have probably lost in 2016 because Clinton was on the ticket

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tim Ryan is a great example of how fortune can often favor the bold.  Beginning with 2006, every cycle he was being heavily recruited to run for Governor or Senator, but Strickland and Brown boxed him out in 2006.  He kept waiting for a comparable national environment and basically blew it.  He should’ve either run for Senate in 2016.  That was the best shot he was gonna get and he turned it down.  

He wasn’t gonna beat Portman in 2016

Rs tend to overperform in OH, FL when Trump is on the ballot they underpolled in FL in 2018 and OH 2018 , DeSantis won by 0.5 in 2018 and KS and KY and LA Gov in 2018/19 when Trump wasn't on the ballot and here in Cali recall they underpolled without Trump just beware of that when Biden Approvals are on the incline since Gas prices are going downhill, Portman overperformed and won by 20 because Hillary stopped contesting OH

I don't believe that DeSantis has a +18 Approvals they haven't polled FL lately

[Grassroots]

W

[Senator Incitatus]

Vance is too far right for this seat

I don't think so. Mandel would've 100% won because ppl don't care about "ideology"

JD's problem is that he is a documented soy boy suddenly running as a Trump Republican, notably funded by a billionaire whose hobby is collecting the body fluids of white, young men so he can attain immortality. He's a phony and everybody knows, which is why he couldn't even muster 1/3 of the primary vote even with $$$$ and the fuhrer's endorsement

You are trying so hard. Keep it up; very funny.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

IDk about Vance being a strong candidate, but he certainly isn't the worst of the bunch. Mandel/Gibbons were so bad they would have given Ryan like a 5-10% chance of winning. Now it's nearly zero

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Lean/Likely R

Ryan is a good candidate. Sad that he had to run in 2022. He would have probably lost in 2016 because Clinton was on the ticket

Safe R.. Ohio 12 points to the right of the nation in 2020.

[Schiff for Senate]

https://twitter.com/timryan/status/1521665423430893568
It’s such a shame Ryan is going to lose because he’s running such a good campaign

Agreed. I'm still disgusted at how two-faced Vance is....I remember I read Hillbilly Elegy and then read people wanted Vance to challenge Sherrod Brown back in 2018. I was a little disappointed that he didn't, and thought it would be cool if he was a Senator (be careful what you wish for!). Well, Vance has proven to be a massive, unprincipled and insincere HP since, and I hope he loses. But yeah, despite Ryan running a great campaign, Vance probably wins comfortably.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/chevytothe_levy/status/1522210686620819456

Tim Ryan Comms director. Either way its safe R but still a good move.

[Grassroots]

Someone needs to add the OH primaries to the Atlas results database ASAP

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just curious, for those of you who think Ryan could eek out a win, what would that look like?

He certainly wouldn't be getting Brown's map, especially in the North East region of the state. And as we know his coalition would certainly be more urban centric than Obamas.

Though do rmbr in 2018 Brown's performance in greater Cinci and Columbus wasn't too impressive considering how he did statewide. Ryan would almost certainly have to outperform Brown in these regions to win. I'm sorta thinking it'd look like 2018 Gov map but with a notably stronger performance in the suburbs.

Since turnout differentials are likely to work against Dems though even this may not be enough.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just curious, for those of you who think Ryan could eek out a win, what would that look like?

He certainly wouldn't be getting Brown's map, especially in the North East region of the state. And as we know his coalition would certainly be more urban centric than Obamas.

Though do rmbr in 2018 Brown's performance in greater Cinci and Columbus wasn't too impressive considering how he did statewide. Ryan would almost certainly have to outperform Brown in these regions to win. I'm sorta thinking it'd look like 2018 Gov map but with a notably stronger performance in the suburbs.

Since turnout differentials are likely to work against Dems though even this may not be enough.

Do you know there hasn't been any polling on this race and the last poll on September had Vance an Ryan tied no one is saying we're absolutely gonna win but Vance said if the Rs get the Trifecta in 24 they gonna nix the Filibuster to expunge Impeachment from the record, you make so many bold statement and your map is all wrong because Kelly, CCM and Warnock and Fetterman are leading
It's wave insurance after WI it's our 52nd seat after WI before GA

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/justinbarasky/status/1524011487450251264

[Senator Incitatus]

-snip-

This is (a) a literal Democratic staffer (b) reporting a single-word quote from September 2021 and (c) as most could probably easily guess, intentionally misrepresenting his stance and the question he was asked, which was thoroughly covered at the time.

Staffers' tweets should probably be banned from this thread.

edit: Actually, based on his Twitter profile and a quick Google search, he's a former staffer. Not surprised that he's unemployed. Maybe he specifically should be banned from the thread.

[Politician]

-snip-

This is (a) a literal Democratic staffer (b) reporting a single-word quote from September 2021 and (c) as most could probably easily guess, intentionally misrepresenting his stance and the question he was asked, which was thoroughly covered at the time.

Staffers' tweets should probably be banned from this thread.

edit: Actually, based on his Twitter profile and a quick Google search, he's a former staffer. Not surprised that he's unemployed. Maybe he specifically should be banned from the thread.

But it fits his narrative of "GQP evul woman-haters" so he has no problem posting disinformation in that case.

[Sestak]

Ok now I kind of miss having a candidate going on lunatic screeds about Bitcoin.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ok now I kind of miss having a candidate going on lunatic screeds about Bitcoin.

"A candidate going on lunatic screeds about Bitcoin"
you couldn't come up with a better epitomizing of 2022 if you tried.

[Joe Republic]

I woke up to this email this morning:



😵😵😵

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is an upset in the making a Tim Ryan win I am definitely gonna donate to him again, Rs think this is Safe R no it's not, neither is IA, WI, PA, NC and FL I know it's hard for Rs to believe Crist is leading

The insurrection commission is doing damage to brand name of R Party

Trump is acting like he isn't in criminal and civil investigation, he wants to be Prez again because he would be immune from Criminal Prosecution that's why he fought so hard to stay in office

It's not over but it's not over for Ryan or Vance in this Environment red states are supposed to be safe and even in NC Beasley is hanging on 44/42

In AR, LA, AK, MT with D inc in 2014 D's were behind in 2014 by 9 PTS

No such thing is happening where Rs are leading by 9 in a single competetive rave even in MO Greitans is up by six and Grassley up by 3

[UWS]

https://twitter.com/henryrodgersdc/status/1537454880775888896
Ryan is too dangerous and radical for OH. Everytime he faces an issue about police and law enforcement, he sides against the police.

That's why in 2014, he supported the Grayson Amendment that denied funds from going to body armors for sheriffs. He voted against Kate's Law, thus voting to shield MS-13 gang members from deportation. In 2021, he voted against motion to condemn calls to “defund”, “disband”, or “abolish” the police. He cosponsored HR 7120 that prohibits transfers to federal tribal, state, and local law enforcement request and receive equipment like firearms, ammunition, bayonets, grenade launchers, grenades (including stun and flash-bang), and explosives; vehicles; drones; controlled aircraft; silencers and long-range acoustic devices.

In 2019, during a speech in Paine College, Tim Ryan called the criminal justice system and police racist and he described law enforcement as, quote, "new Jim Crow".

In April, Bluffton mourned the death of Officer Dominic Francis who was killed trying to stop fleeing car on highway. Greg Smith, Officer police from Toledo, got injured in four months ago when he slipped entering a booby trapped house, risking his life protecting the lives of citizens of Ohio like every police officer do daily.

It is shameful of Tim Ryan to call police officers new Jim Crow. That's not Ohio.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ryan has lead in two polls by the same 44/41margin and Crist lead in two polls over DeSantis 51/49 and a Change poll had Grassley up by only three, 45/42 way back in April, they haven't polled since primary Rs DONT HAVE A MONOPOLY ON RED STATES

DeWine is gonna win but there can be split Voting

It's silly to think D's can lose blue states like the compiled map has it, it's an R nut map but D's can't win red states thats exactly what pbower2A says, red states are winnable too


Vance says he wants to end porn and he wants to nix the Filibuster for Trump in the Senate to expunge Trump impeachment and Masters wants to privitized SSA which it won't happen Bush W was turned back by Collins and Murkowski I'm the Sen in 2005 on privitized SSA

[wbrocks67]

actually, it's shameful to constantly defend the police as if they do nothing wrong. let's get honest and realistic about it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/henryrodgersdc/status/1537454880775888896
Ryan is too dangerous and radical for OH. Everytime he faces an issue about police and law enforcement, he sides against the police.

That's why in 2014, he supported the Grayson Amendment that denied funds from going to body armors for sheriffs. He voted against Kate's Law, thus voting to shield MS-13 gang members from deportation. In 2021, he voted against motion to condemn calls to “defund”, “disband”, or “abolish” the police. He cosponsored HR 7120 that prohibits transfers to federal tribal, state, and local law enforcement request and receive equipment like firearms, ammunition, bayonets, grenade launchers, grenades (including stun and flash-bang), and explosives; vehicles; drones; controlled aircraft; silencers and long-range acoustic devices.

In 2019, during a speech in Paine College, Tim Ryan called the criminal justice system and police racist and he described law enforcement as, quote, "new Jim Crow".

In April, Bluffton mourned the death of Officer Dominic Francis who was killed trying to stop fleeing car on highway. Greg Smith, Officer police from Toledo, got injured in four months ago when he slipped entering a booby trapped house, risking his life protecting the lives of citizens of Ohio like every police officer do daily.

It is shameful of Tim Ryan to call police officers new Jim Crow. That's not Ohio.

ITT: Guy from Michigan tries lecture people about what’s “not Ohio”

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This seat is wave insurance just like FL , as I have always said but KS, OH and FL bucked the 303 map in 2018 and Ryan and Crist appeal to Brown and GILLUM voters, not only that OH and FL were almost won by Biden but there wasnt a Sen race in 2020 Biden on the Final weekend was ahead in most polls in OH, 24 FL and OH can flip D due to Brown on the Ballot and Rick Scott is more vulnerable than Rubio

Demings, and Beasley are too liberal, I don't know about IA, the last poll had Franken losing by 3

Rs don't have monopoly on red states just like Rs think they can win blue states we can win red States


Sununu is gonna win a blue state, D's have no monopoly on blue states and SUNUNU and Hogan won in 2018 and we won OH SEN, DeWine is gonna easily beat Nan W just like in 2018 it can split vote just like in FL Rubio is gonna win but Crist is a former R and didn't raise taxes when he was Gov, Crist can win

[Rjjr77]

in a D+8 year (2018) popular incumbent Sherrod Brown had to spend over 30 MILLION to under perform his polling by large margins against a heavily disliked candidate.

Tim Ryan is gonna get boat raced.

[Politician]

in a D+8 year (2018) popular incumbent Sherrod Brown had to spend over 30 MILLION to under perform his polling by large margins against a heavily disliked candidate.

Tim Ryan is gonna get boat raced.

Everybody except for delusional clowns like OC and Minnesota Mike knows this.