OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Roll Roons]

Wow, this was a shock. PA, WI and NC are still better targets for Democrats, but no reason for them not to run a good candidate. Who'd be the best recruit for them? For Republicans, hopefully anyone but Jordan.

[VAR]

Rob Portman was a uniquely strong incumbent because he has a gay son. He could say "I have a gay son" to deflect Young Kim attacks. Lean R now, closer to Tossup.

[SnowLabrador]

Likely R at best, but it would be even harder to beat Portman than to win an open seat. Good news for Democrats.

[Torie]

Very depressing news. I have always admired the man, both for his intelligence, his wisdom, his character and his temperament. There seems to be less and less room for people like him to be in the Pub party, which is even more depressing.

[MT Treasurer]

i think dems might get 60 seats at this rate. must be tough to be a republican these day, huh

"Portman saw the writing on the wall, which is why he retired. Grassley will probably follow suit soon enough."

In all seriousness, I actually hope Grassley retires as well because I wouldn’t put it past the DSCC to prioritize both races over, say, NC.

[gerritcole]

Will be very competitive primary - I'd venture some firebrand state legislator ends up taking the nomination

[GALeftist]

Cook already downgrading the race all the way to Lean R:

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1353732687786369024

Are you kidding me? Lol I thought they would downgrade it to Likely and that would be too aggressive.

[Left Wing]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ConnieSchultz/status/1353733014740725762
Connie Schultz (Sherrod Brown’s wife) hinting at a run?

[forza nocta]

Semi-serious question: Would this be a tossup race or better for Dems if LeBron ran?

[CookieDamage]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ConnieSchultz/status/1353733014740725762
Connie Schultz (Sherrod Brown’s wife) hinting at a run?

I hope not. I luv her but I think she'd lose.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

How much money will McConnell dump into this primary to stop Jim Jordan?

It won’t be enough

[gerritcole]

Semi-serious question: Would this be a tossup race or better for Dems if LeBron ran?

no

[VAR]

i think dems might get 60 seats at this rate. must be tough to be a republican these day, huh

"Portman saw the writing on the wall, which is why he retired. Grassley will probably follow suit soon enough."

In all seriousness, I actually hope Grassley retires as well because I wouldn’t put it past the DSCC to prioritize both races over, say, NC.

It all depends on where Peters wants to ride his motorcycle. Does he want to grow a beard and woo 47-year-old suburban moms in Alpharetta? Or does he feel like being #populist with Brown and Tester in Mahoning?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Cook already downgrading the race all the way to Lean R:

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1353732687786369024

Are you kidding me? Lol I thought they would downgrade it to Likely and that would be too aggressive.

In a Biden midterm, a state that voted 4 points to the right of the nation is rated as "lean D" and one that voted 13 points to the right is "lean R". This is kind of ridiculous; are they expecting this to be a D+9 year or something:?

[jamestroll]

I still strongly recommend that Democrats target the winnable races such as North Carolina, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania and not Ohio!

[Brittain33]

OMG, someone mentioned JD Vance as a Republican candidate. Please no.

I agree that is either Lean or Likely R depending on how much uncertainty you’re willing to tolerate this far out, but is very likely to be Likely R by summer 2022.

[One Term Floridian]

If it’s Jim Jordan vs Tim Ryan (or whoever else is the strongest for Dems) is it possible for Dems to take this seat?

I’m halfway between ecstatic and laying a brick tbh

[MT Treasurer]

In a Biden midterm, a state that voted 4 points to the right of the nation is rated as "lean D" and one that voted 13 points to the right is "lean R". This is kind of ridiculous; are they expecting this to be a D+9 year or something:?

These people are very bad at their jobs. Like I said before, the only reason they have IA as Safe R is because they’re assuming that Grassley will run again. Watch them downgrade it to Lean R when he retires (clearly more competitive than NV/NH).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news D pickups

[Del Tachi]

Not sure what to make of this. On the one hand, this seat moves from unwinnable to winnable in a perfect storm, but on the other hand, most Republicans are a downgrade from Portman.

When has Portman ever voted with Dems on anything of significance?

That's kinda missing the point.  DiFi never breaks with Schumer on floor votes, for example, but her seniority and stature moderates the entire Democratic caucus towards her position.  Portman was in a similar position.  Replacing him with Renacci, Gonzalez or (God forbid) Jim Jordan is definitely a downgrade for Democrats and moderate centrists of either party.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook already downgrading the race all the way to Lean R:

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1353732687786369024

Are you kidding me? Lol I thought they would downgrade it to Likely and that would be too aggressive.

In a Biden midterm, a state that voted 4 points to the right of the nation is rated as "lean D" and one that voted 13 points to the right is "lean R". This is kind of ridiculous; are they expecting this to be a D+9 year or something:?

..

Stop saying a Biden midterm, 2010 we had 11 percent Unemployment, 2014 and 2018 we had red Senate maps.


2014 D's lost AR, AK, LA and NC and 1 blue state CO SD, MT and WVA were also lost

2018 D's lost MO, IN and ND

Only 1 D inc Mark Udall lost in a blue state, the rest are red states

2016 we lost WI, PA, OH, FL and IN but Strickland, Bayh and Kate McGinty lost due to Hillary

We have a good record in blue states midterms or not

[GALeftist]

Cook Political now unironically believes Ohio is as competitive as Wisconsin.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

My gut says Betty Sutton/Nan Whaley vs. Jim Jordan

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook Political now unironically believes Ohio is as competitive as Wisconsin.

2 yrs is a long time for ratings changes

[Blair]

What's changed since November when he said he'd run? He's lost his committee chair.

Portman was at his heart a Bush era conservative & was a reliable vote for the leadership; he was generally the type of republican who'd oppose or turn against the excesses of Trumpism when the more moderates members of the caucus had already jumped.

It's a surprise but not a huge surprise considering his age and the fact that he can be pretty sure that he'll get replaced by a republican- like honestly who even is there to run in Ohio for the democrats?

The one point I'd make about Jordan is that he is the ranking member in the House & actually seems to have a lot more influence as he has a larger band of idiots followling him than he would in the Senate.