Formula Predictions for Pre-Primary States - Governor

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Alaska (incumbent running) – Frank Murkowski vs. Tony Knowles
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): -36 x 0.75 = 27
Ivan Moore Research: 53-21 Knowles (-36)

Incumbent approval (Survey USA 20-78): -58 x 0.15 = 8.7
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 35-23 GOP): 12 x 0.1 = 1.2

Knowles will win by 34.5%


Alaska (open seat) – Sarah Palin vs. Tony Knowles
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): -4 x 0.8 = 3.2
Ivan Moore Research: 43-39 Knowles (-4)

Retiring incumbent approval (Survey USA 20-78): -58 x 0.1 = 5.8
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 35-23 GOP): 12 x 0.1 = 1.2

Knowles will win by 7.8%


Arizona (incumbent running) – Janet Napolitano vs. Don Goldwater
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): 20.67 x 0.75 = 15.5
Rasmussen: 55-34 Napolitano (+21)
Rasmussen: 53-32 Napolitano (+21)
Rasmussen: 54-34 Napolitano (+20)

Incumbent approval (Survey USA 58-38): 20 x 0.15 = 3
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 39-34 GOP): 5 x 0.1 = 0.5

Napolitano will win by 18%


Colorado (open seat) – Bob Beauprez vs. Bill Ritter
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): -2.67 x 0.8 = 2.13
Rasmussen: 42-37 Ritter (-5)
Rasmussen: 43-38 Ritter (-5)
Rasmussen: 39-37 Beauprez (+2)

Retiring incumbent approval (Survey USA 53-42): 11 x 0.1 = 1.1
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 36-35 GOP): 1 x 0.1 = 0.01

Ritter will win by 1.02%


Connecticut (incumbent running) – Jodi Rell vs. John DeStefano
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): 38 x 0.75 = 28.5
Rasmussen: 59-31 Rell (+28)
Quinnipiac: 64-24 Rell (+40)
Quinnipiac: 66-20 Rell (+46)

Incumbent approval (Survey USA 73-22): 51 x 0.15 = 7.65
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 42-24 DEM): 18 x 0.1 = 1.8

Rell will win by 34.35%


Connecticut (incumbent running) – Jodi Rell vs. Dan Malloy
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): 38.33 x 0.75 = 28.75
Rasmussen: 58-31 Rell (+27)
Quinnipiac: 65-22 Rell (+43)
Quinnipiac: 65-20 Rell (+45)

Incumbent approval (Survey USA 73-22): 51 x 0.15 = 7.65
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 42-24 DEM): 18 x 0.1 = 1.8

Rell will win by 34.6%


Florida (open seat) – Charlie Crist vs. Jim Davis
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): 6 x 0.8 = 4.8
Quinnipiac: 41-39 Crist (+2)
Strategic Vision: 49-41 Crist (+8)
Strategic Vision: 48-40 Crist (+8)

Retiring incumbent approval (Survey USA 59-38): 21 x 0.1 = 2.1
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 38-37 GOP): 1 x 0.1 = 0.01

Crist will win by 6.91%


Hawaii (incumbent running) – Linda Lingle vs. Randy Iwase
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): Not Available
Incumbent net approval (Survey USA 62-33): 29 x 0.15 = 4.35
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 37-26 DEM): 11 x 0.1 = 1.1

Lingle will win by 13%*

*Due to lack of polls, I am not including the poll factor (75%) at this point and will multiply the sum of the remaining factors (3.25) by 4.


Kansas (incumbent running) – Kathleen Sebelius vs. Jim Barnett
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): 12.67 x 0.75 = 9.5
Rasmussen: 49-36 Sebelius (+13)
Rasmussen: 49-37 Sebelius (+12)
Rasmussen: 50-37 Sebelius (+13)

Incumbent net approval (Survey USA 64-30): 34 x 0.15 = 5.1
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 44-32 GOP): 12 x 0.1 = 1.2

Sebelius will win by 13.4%


Kansas (incumbent running) – Kathleen Sebelius vs. Robin Jennison
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): 18.67 x 0.75 = 14
Rasmussen: 51-31 Sebelius (+20)
Rasmussen: 50-33 Sebelius (+17)
Rasmussen: 51-32 Sebelius (+19)

Incumbent net approval (Survey USA 64-30): 34 x 0.15 = 5.1
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 44-32 GOP): 12 x 0.1 = 1.2

Sebelius will win by 17.9%


Maryland (incumbent running) – Bob Ehrlich vs. Martin O'Malley
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): 10 x 0.75 = 7.5
Associated Press/Ipsos: 55-39 O'Malley (+16)
Rasmussen: 51-42 O'Malley (+9)
Gonzales: 51-46 O'Malley (+5)

Incumbent net approval (Survey USA 44-51): -14 x 0.15 = 2.1
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 51-28 DEM): 23 x 0.1 = 2.3

O'Malley will win by 11.9%


Massachusetts (open seat) – Kerry Healey vs. Deval Patrick
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): 14 x 0.8 = 11.2
KRC Communications: 40-31 Patrick (-9)
Rasmussen: 43-23 Patrick (-20)
Suffolk: 38-25 Patrick (-13)

Retiring incumbent net approval (Survey USA 39-56): -17 x 0.1 = 1.7
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 38-11 DEM): 27 x 0.1 = 2.7

Patrick will win by 15.4%


Massachusetts (open seat) – Kerry Healey vs. Tom Reilly
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): 10 x 0.8 = 8
KRC Communications: 36-31 Reilly (-5)
Rasmussen: 39-27 Reilly (-12)
Suffolk: 40-27 Reilly (-13)

Retiring incumbent net approval (Survey USA 39-56): -17 x 0.1 = 1.7
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 38-11 DEM): 27 x 0.1 = 2.7

Reilly will win by 12.4%


Massachusetts (open seat) – Kerry Healey vs. Chris Gabrielli
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): 15.33 x 0.8 = 12.27
KRC Communications: 39-30 Gabrielli (-9)
Rasmussen: 42-24 Gabrielli (-18)
Suffolk: 42-23 Gabrielli (-19)

Retiring incumbent net approval (Survey USA 39-56): -17 x 0.1 = 1.7
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 38-11 DEM): 27 x 0.1 = 2.7

Gabrielli will win by 16.67%


Michigan (incumbent running) – Jennifer Granholm vs. Dick DeVos
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): -2.33 x 0.75 = 1.75
EPIC/MRA: 46-44 DeVos (-2)
Strategic Vision: 48-41 DeVos (-7)
Rasmussen: 44-42 Granholm (+2)

Incumbent net approval (Survey USA 42-56): -14 x 0.15 = 2.1
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 39-29 DEM): 10 x 0.1 = 1

DeVos will win by 2.85%


Minnesota (incumbent running) – Tim Pawlenty vs. Mike Hatch
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): 7.5 x 0.75 = 5.63
Rasmussen: 47-42 Hatch (-5)
Rasmussen: 49-39 Hatch (-10)

Incumbent net approval (Survey USA 51-46): 5 x 0.15 = 0.75
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 36-32 DEM): 4 x 0.1 = 0.4

Hatch will win by 5.28%


Nevada (open seat) – Jim Gibbons vs. Jim Gibson
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): 8 x 0.8 = 6.4
Research 2000: 44-39 Gibbons (+5)
Mason-Dixon: 44-30 Gibbons (+14)
Rasmussen: 43-38 Gibbons (+5)

Retiring incumbent net approval (Survey USA 58-33): 25 x 0.1 = 2.5
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 36-32 DEM): 4 x 0.1 = 0.4

Gibbons will win by 8.5%


New Hampshire (incumbent running) – John Lynch vs. Jim Coburn
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): 55 x 0.75 = 41.25
U New Hampshire: 67-12 Lynch (+55)

Incumbent net approval (Survey USA 72-22): 50 x 0.15 = 7.5
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 28-28): 0

Lynch will win by 48.75%


New York (open seat) – John Faso vs. Eliot Spitzer
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): 48.67 x 0.8 = 38.93
Quinnipiac: 66-20 Spitzer (+46)
Siena College: 67-21 Spitzer (+46)
Blum & Weprin Associates: 65-15 Spitzer (+50)

Retiring incumbent net approval (Survey USA 41-55): -14 x 0.1 = 1.4
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 49-27 DEM): 22 x 0.1 = 2.2

Spitzer will win by 42.53%


Oklahoma (incumbent running) – Brad Henry vs. Ernest Istook
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): 11 x 0.75 = 8.25
Rasmussen: 50-39 Henry (+11)

Incumbent net approval (Survey USA 67-26): 41 x 0.15 = 6.15
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 44-43 DEM): 1 x 0.1 = 0.1

Henry will win by 14.5%


Rhode Island (incumbent running) – Donald Carcieri vs. Charles Fogarty
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): 1 x 0.75 = 0.75
Rasmussen: 43-42 Fogarty (-1)
Brown University: 44-39 Carcieri (+5)
Rasmussen: 41-40 Fogarty (-1)

Incumbent net approval (Survey USA 49-46): 3 x 0.15 = 0.45
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 36-17 DEM): 19 x 0.1 = 1.9

Fogarty will win by 0.7%


Tennessee (incumbent running) – Phil Bredesen vs. Jim Bryson
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): Not Available
Incumbent net approval (Survey USA 62-32): 30 x 0.15 = 4.5
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 38-35 DEM): 3 x 0.1 = 0.3

Bredesen will win by 19.2%*

*Due to lack of polls, I am not including the poll factor (75%) at this point and will multiply the sum of the remaining factors (4. by 4.


Vermont (incumbent running) – Jim Douglas vs. Scudder Parker
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): 27 x 0.75 = 20.25
Rasmussen: 54-31 Douglas (+23)
Research 2000: 53-18 Douglas (+35)
Rasmussen: 54-31 Douglas (+23)

Incumbent net approval (Survey USA 59-37): 22 x 0.15 = 3.3
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 36-21 DEM): 15 x 0.1 = 1.5

Douglas will win by 22.05%


Wisconsin (incumbent running) – Jim Doyle vs. Mark Green
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): 8 x 0.75 = 6
University of Wisconsin: 49-36 Doyle (+13)
Wisconsin Policy Research: 49-37 Doyle (+12)
Strategic Vision: 46-45 Green (-1)

Incumbent net approval (Survey USA 45-49): -4 x 0.15 = 0.6
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 33-26 DEM): 7 x 0.1 = 0.7

Doyle will win by 6.1%


Wyoming (incumbent running) – Dave Freudenthal vs. Ray Hunkins
Margin of last 3 polls (averaged): 30.5 x 0.75 = 22.88
Rasmussen: 52-29 Freudenthal (+23)
Mason-Dixon: 55-17 Freudenthal (+38)

Incumbent net approval (Survey USA 67-27): 40 x 0.15 = 6
State partisan leaning (Survey USA 52-26 GOP): 26 x 0.1 = 2.6

Freudenthal will win by 26.28%